Is Brendan Rodgers a big enough name to attract the very best?
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I think the media barons will look at Cricket and Rugby but don't be surprised if they also take a punt on a 'game' like Snooker. As far as football is concerned I can see the tv companies airing more and more women's football.
I'm not sure the bubble will burst as such. The massive investment that Sky and BT are putting into PL football is generating them a ROI, so there's nothing to suggest that they'll be withdrawing any time in the medium term.
The rapid rise in revenue will probably even out at some point though and the product will find its sustainable level in the market, but it don't foresee a massive drop off in revenues.
No I don't either. And what Arsenal/Wenger are doing with increased wages (one of the biggest antagonists towards the changing times) seems to show football (and English football in particular) is headed in only one direction.
- May 22, 2011
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It'll get to a point, and it might be 5 or 10 or 15 year down the line, where a big, big club gets in serious trouble because of wages.
Fifa will then step in and have to do something dramatic such as a salary cap on players in my opinion. Can rise each year with inflation (that 3% is really going to be felt by them you know
).
Fifa will then step in and have to do something dramatic such as a salary cap on players in my opinion. Can rise each year with inflation (that 3% is really going to be felt by them you know
).Then both you and Treble both appear to thinking in contrary terms to the forecasts that the industry watchers are making.
In all honesty, I hope to **** they/you are right. Just the reality atm and foreseeable future doesn't look like it.
I've not seen any industry experts forecasting a crash in TV revenue for the EPL. Care to enlighten me?
I/they are basing their projections on sound principles. Broadcasting companies have no inherent loyalty to the well being of football. Football brought with it the prospect of a worldwide audience that could be sold a package. To a greater degree that audience has now been satisfied. Hence the cost of obtaining the product is far and away more than can be gained marginally from the audience. This is not a position that the media companies will continue to support as they will both lose profit and become a supplicant party in the process.
So if it costs too much money to gain new viewers and too much money to buy rights then the search is on to find new product that offers higher long term return. I don't believe that the media companies will withdraw from football but they will reduce the amount that they are prepared to pay. If however, they strike gold in their spread of sports (let's say basketball) then all bets are off for football.
All of the industry watchers are predicting a reduction in product investment worldwide in the medium to long term. Just go look.
The two UK based holders of the rights have drastically increased their returns off the back of their football investment, in Sky's case it was the cornerstone of their entire business model and remains so.
BT have used it to drive broadband subscription and it's still delivering what it intended from it.
I'm sure the success of both companies in using the EPL to drive their businesses forward hasn't escaped the view of other operators and I'm sure there'll be massive competition again, when the next contract tender comes up.
There's no way on Gods Earth that any other sport will ever come remotely close to the EPL in terms of consistent viewing numbers in the UK. There simply is no other sport that can drive the level of TV customer spend that football does, hence the reason the cost is so astronomical.
I have looked, hence the question. As I couldn't find one article that forecast the bubble bursting for the EPL TV revenues. So hook me up....
It'll get to a point, and it might be 5 or 10 or 15 year down the line, where a big, big club gets in serious trouble because of wages.
Fifa will then step in and have to do something dramatic such as a salary cap on players in my opinion. Can rise each year with inflation (that 3% is really going to be felt by them you know
You mean a club like PSG which upon the remotest sign of distress can immediately strike a 100m deal with a parent (or cousin) Qaatari firm for services or merchandise barely worth a tenth of that?
And FIFA would bat an eye, why?
It'll get to a point, and it might be 5 or 10 or 15 year down the line, where a big, big club gets in serious trouble because of wages.
Fifa will then step in and have to do something dramatic such as a salary cap on players in my opinion. Can rise each year with inflation (that 3% is really going to be felt by them you know
This is the type of thing FFP is there to guard against
I was not limiting myself to the EPL but considering the media situation worlwide. But if you want references then look at the reports offered by people like Kantar, Sportsbusiness, Forbes and a host of US based investment banks where the issue is being regularly discussed.
As for Sky and BT then you have to consider the differences between the 2 operations. Sky are now locked into football but almost locked out of the growing tablet/phone delivery systems. In the longer term this will damage their markets at the same time as customers find alternatives to their premium bundle pricing. As for BT, whilst a stronger technological position they do face regulatory problems with their potential monopoly position. Of the 2 with BT being the new player on the market it would be very easy for them to switch sports should the numbers stack up.
So your comments specifically with reference to the EPL were baseless, as that's just waffle Dave
How are Sky locked out of tablet delivery? Never heard of Sky Go? They have a broadband offering and you don't need to be an air time provider to deliver your product to a 4g device. So that makes no sense either.
- May 22, 2011
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This is the type of thing FFP is there to guard against
Yes, but can hardly say it's put some clubs off has it?
City and PSG breached it.
Madrid spunked £70m on Rodriguez, Barca same on Suarez.
Came across this by chance today and might be relevant to what Dave was talking about earlier.
But instead of just looking at the wages, look at average club income which means...
Premier League - 1.46% of income spent on each player's wages
Bundesliga - 1.62%
Serie A - 1.83%
La Liga - 1.56%
Lique 1 - 2.04%
It doesn't seem like it's breaking the bank. Although I wonder how those wage to income ratios compare to say 20 years ago?
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But instead of just looking at the wages, look at average club income which means...
Premier League - 1.46% of income spent on each player's wages
Bundesliga - 1.62%
Serie A - 1.83%
La Liga - 1.56%
Lique 1 - 2.04%
It doesn't seem like it's breaking the bank. Although I wonder how those wage to income ratios compare to say 20 years ago?
Both got fined and squad sanctions, if they do it again the sanctions will be higher. The whole idea is to stop a club putting itself into a position where it could not be sustained without unearned income (massive cash injection from owners who could sell at any time).