An update on possible non runners. Glass Harmonium (Order of Merit 7) who had a torrid run in the Cox Plate, will run on saturday in the 2000m Mackinnon. If he performs below par, he probably won't run. Sheikh Hamdan's Tactic (OoM 23) has been going poorly in work and needs to do well in the Lexus on Saturday if he's to be paid up for.
Tomorrow, the Victorian provincial city Bendigo will run their Cup. The 2400m race carries automatic qualification for the Melbourne Cup. Two horse already assured a start, At First Sight (20) and Sahara Sun (24) will line up. But six others who are well down the Order of Merit will be out to snatch a spot. But they need to win well to force a weight penalty to lift them above others who have already qualified. They are. Lamarery (32) Tanby (38) Two For Tea (41) Cosmonaught (44) Back In Black (46) Western Symbol (47)
Some interesting stuff going on in the Cumani camp. Kieren Fallon is on stand by for the ride on Drunken Sailor. But strangely enough, he'll only get the sit if stable mate Bauer, gets into the Cup. Cumani said that Fallon is booked to fly out on Saturday if the horse makes the field. He gets the ride on Drunken Sailor if Bauer gets is, but misses out if he doesn't. How strange is that. If Bauer misses, the Drunken Sailor ride goes to local Dwayne Dunn. If Bauer makes it, Fallon goes to Drunken Sailor, Dunn to Bauer. It seems Damien Oliver has advised Luca Cumani to use blinkers on Manighar for the first time in a race. The horse has not been showing any zip of late and it was hoped that the blinkers might help. Cumani is considering his options. Both Manighar and Drunken Sailor worked poorly today. Neither was ashed for fast work, but neither looked impressive. Drunken Sailor finished last of three who went off together, and Mainghar failed to beat a companion. Cumani said he's not unhappy, as both are notoriously bad when it comes to track work.
I am particularly excited about Godolphins raid on this race this season. Saed Bin Suroor is over in Aus now doing preparations with both Lostinthemoment and Modun. I believe William Buick takes the ride on Lost In The Moment, and I like is chances at a big price. Buick has a good track record in other parts of the world, and Lost In The Moment won't want for stamina- should relish the test.
Some nice stuff out yesterday about both Lost In The Moment and Modun TC. Seems Saeed Bin Suroor is petty keen on the chances of both, but Modun in particular. The horse was bought from the Stout yard, with the Cup in mind. He stands a whopping 17 hands apparently. McEvoy takes the ride while as you said, Buick is on Lost In The Moment. Some races are luck for certain stables, some are not. The Cup has always been a step too far for Godolphin to date. Maybe thus year mate. Good luck.
One of the last chances to qualify for the Cup, was run today at Bendigo. The winner receive automatic qualification. one of Australia's richest men LLoyd Williams managed to win the race with Tanby. Going in he was 38 in the Order Of Merit, but as the 5 year old is in on the limit, he needs a hefty weight penalty to give him a chance at a race position in the final field. The thinking is that he'll need about 2.5 kg to make it, but that is highly unlikely. It was an impressive win though. But Williams, a multiple winner of the Melbourne Cup will still have a number of runners. The horse that finished second behind Tanby, At First Sight, now owned by Williams, ran a very nice race. A long last in running, he came extremely wide on the corner and flew home. His run did peak at the half furlong though. A spot might open up for others just out of the running, with the possible withdrawal of Sahara Sun who put in a shocker. Although assured of a run, Luca Cumani said the horse just failed to pick up when the race quickened. He'll have a few discussions, but he doubts that the horse will run. Terrible news for jockey Craig Williams. He was suspended for 10 meetings, which rules out the ride on hot chance Dunaden. Williams to appeal the suspension on Monday.
French born Christophe Lemaire, currently riding in Japan, has been asked to standby for the Dunaden mount, if Craig Williams fails in his appeal on Monday. Anpther in the hot seat is Nash Rawiller. He too will front the Appeals board on Monday. He was handed an eight meeting suspension. If the appeal fails, he misses the ride on US stayer Unusual Suspect. Luca Cumani said today, that Sahara Sun will be a non runner.
The rider of Dunaden, Craig Williams had his appeal moved to today, but it made no difference. The 10 meeting suspension still stands. His council though are looking at his legal options. standby rider Christophe Lemaire will fly in Sunday night. In other news, Luca Cumani's favourite Bauer has jumped up the Order of Merit with the withdrawal of Lloyd Williams' Linton. With Cumani scratching of Sahara Sun and now Linton, Bauer has moved to 27. To assure a capacity field of 24 runners, a team of 6 vets will today begin a check of the top 35 horses still left in contention.
17 hand Modun stepped of for his first piece of works since being released from quarantine last Monday. Under the keen eye of Saeed bin Suroor, McEvoy sent the half brother to last year's Ebor winner Saptapadi, over a 2000m trip. according to his rider, he put in a solid 1400 piece of work. McEvoy questions whether the horse can get the 3200m journey, as it's his first try at the distance. But he feels the horse has a solid chance. Stable mate Lost In The Moment set off 10 lengths adrift and maintained that position through out. So he went ok too.
Always a worry about the trip , but godolphin seem to do a better job than ballydoyle do as this was touched up on a few years ago when aob was called in by the stewards to explain septimus and co's running and he stated 'maybe we sent the wrong horses' Aob sends types who are proven over the trip and beyond which hasn't been successful but godolphins as had 3 seconds and a 3rd and they all had 1m2f to 1m4f form that season which I think is the best type to send for the cup as they have shown they have a bit of speed instead of just raw stamina .luca cumani placed types also have form over shorter than 2 miles Modun as a similar profile to past godolphin placed horses but cause he's so big he could be harder to steer around a tighter track than he's used to and also the massive field on top .just think he could be to far back entering the home Straight and be flying home once clear but the winning post comin to soon
Other than what's on paper, I don't know too much about him GP, but I'll hunt down vids when the final field is settled. The Cup is really hard to get my head around this year because of the huge European content. I think that Australia will only have one or two horses in the race. And with so many of the top European chances going in without a run, makes it a mine field.
i love international races and try to work out each countries strengths and weakness's but must admit ive left ozland out so far and only just started to read oz horse racing websites and been quite impressed with some of the info you get. i'll leave the aussie form to you cyc as im eager to have a bet in this after finishing 2nd with bauer a few years back. ive tried to look at past European horses and there profiles to find a pattern and have to say that those that run 2m or more is a negative .those that were campaigned at 1m2f to 1m6f that season seem a better bet than the dour stayers imo aiden o bren for example 2006 yeats 3 runs beforehand at 2m4f,2m and 1m6f thats season - finishes 7th 2007 mahler 7 runs beforehand at 1m2f to 2m that season - finishes 3rd 2008 septimus 2 runs beforehand at 1m6f twice that season plus last 2 runs of season before over 2m2f and 2m finishes 18th 2008 Honolulu 4 rusn beforehand thats season from 1m6f to 2m2f - finishes 21st 2008 Alessandro volta 6 runs beforehand from 1m2f to 1m6.5f ,seemingly used to be a pacemaker for septimus and honolulu as recent form was much poorer compared to his 2 stablemates who went into it with recent good form finishes 20th proven stayers at 2m or beyond finished much worse than mahler who had won at 2 miles that season but also over 1m2f and was close up in a gp2 1m4f race. O'Brien(in 2008 when called into the stewards room) appeared to blame himself, said: "Perhaps we brought the wrong horses, perhaps we should have given them prep runs over here." he later also fumed the ground was like concrete and 2 finished lame. Murtagh (also added) refused to blame the breakneck pace for Septimus's defeat. He said: "He might not be the horse for the race. When they got into the straight he just stopped. He was basically too slow." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ you could argue that lack of prep runs in oz is also a disadvantage but s bin suroor for godolphin,who themselves are eager to win this have done well with three 2nds and a 3rds from 12 runners. 1999 central park 4 runs thats season 1m2f to 1m4f no prep racwe finishes 2nd.n 2001 give the slip 6 runs that season 1m2f to 1m4f no prep race - finishes 2nd 2002 beekeeper 3 runs that season 1m2f,1m4f and 2m .1 prep race - finishes 3rd 2009 crime scene 8 runs that season 1m2f to 1m4f.1 prep races - finishes 2nd there is also the argument euorpean horses have a had a long season and have gone stale wheres the aussies have just started and fresh but crime scene started racing in january and had 8 runs before hand .mahler was much more busy then yeats and septimus also. 2 other trianers to mention dermot weld as had 2 wins and a 2nd for his best. 1994 vintage crop 7 runs thats season from 1m2f to 2m4f - no prep - WON 2002 media puzzle 8 runs that season from 1m2f to 2m won prep - WON. 2002 vinnie roe 4 runs that season 1m4f to 1m6f .no prep finishes 4th 2004 vinnie roe 3 runs that season 1m4f to 1m6f . no prep -finishes 2nd vintage crops worst ever race was in the ascot gold cup but was able to win the irish st leger and run well over 1m2f.media puzzle didnt win in ire/uk before the geelong cup win,but was successful over 1m2f to 1m6f .vinnie roe, same profile both seasons he finishes in the frame with 2 irish st leger wins beforehand luca cumani as done well also with 2008 bauer 5 runs that season 1m3f to 1m6f - wins prep - 2nd 2007 purple moon 4 runs that season 1m2f to 1m6f - 1 prep - 2nd cumani like to have a prep with his. so regarding prep race,length of season/runs and distances ,running too often over 2 miles seems to me the worse type of horse to have a go on.
I've always been under the impression that a 10f to 14f European horse is better suited for the MC than a 2 miler. Septimus run was diabolical - he was sent off like it was a 5f sprint
s bin suroor runs in 2011 lost in the moment - 9 runs from 1m2f to 2m.no prep modun - 6 runs .1m2f to 1m6f no prep lost in the moment ran a close 2nd in the goodwood cup over 2miles and seemingly better form over the 2m trip than over shorter.modun hasnt gone beyond 1m6f (4th once and as won over 1m2f but also a 2nd to group class green destiny in a valuable 1m2f hcap and also a group 2 1m4f win. to me modun fits in well with s bin suroors past placed types more than lost in the moment does plus in interviews you can tell he impressed with modun.in a 18 runner race at sharpish goodwood he seemed to lose his place before staying on to take 2nd.thats whats putting me off him a bit as hes so big and could easily get outpaced before flying home too late.also at folkstone which is sharp he was left back at the rear,but seems to run more easier in the mid sections on galloping tracks like york and newbury.but he as won a group 3 at sharp kempton on polytrack, in smaller fields,so might be reading to much into it. aiden ob rein and d weld nothing luca cumani was hoping for 4 runners ,but the ex chilean saharas sun is out. bauer - trying to get into it so hes had 2 preps already.he only needed one in 2008 so could be not ideal to keep running him often.with his injuries also i cant see him going one better if he does make the line up drunken sailor - 8 runs so far 1m4f to 2m.1 prep got squeezed out in his prep and i dont think he was comfortable when the pace got going 4f to go.think he lacks the speed to get out of trouble that often happens .best from seems to be on long run - in tracks manigar - 5 runs form 1m4f to 2m4.i prep.prep came in oz over 12f.as raced over longer in the uk and doesnt seem to have the speed to win this at the end as i can see him being outpaced again when they wind it up.think the soft ground helped him get a decent 7th last year but see him been further down the field this time round i think modun would be the best of the uk selections. of the french horse amercain and dunaden command respect.more impressed with dunaden in his trial but dont know much about him.running over or near the 2m trip in france doesnt seem to be a hindrance mainly due to the slower pace they get.amercain as that quickening ability at the end of slower run staying races.i like the geelong cup as atrial more though and dunaden would be for me the most interesting of the 2 and he as also in france quickened up well in there staying races.
By the way Cyclonic, can I just compliment you on this thread, you have done a wonderful job and it has been a terrific insight I saw Lostinthemoment run a cracking race over 10f behing GREEN DESTINY earlier in the season where it came home like a train, and then did the same at Goodwood. I think it should possess the tactical speed to get in a good position, and the 7th place in the Ebor would have been a great preparation in terms of learning for a race like this. William Buick usually gets his horses in a good position in the staying races (look at his rides in the last 2 St Leger's), so I'm hoping that he can get a good sit on Lostinthemoment. Very good point made above about horses having the speed- So You Think was a great example last season and ran a cracker.
Listen to the Melbourne Cup (and tomorrow's V.R.C. Derby Day). Does anyone know if it is being streamed?
Melbourne Cup final field and barrier draw. Americain 15. Jukebox Jury 6. Dunaden 13. Drunken Sailor 8. Glass Harmonium 23. Manighar 21. Unusual Suspect 7. Fox Hunt 19. Lucas Cranach 11. Mourayan 14. Precedence 2. Red Cadeaux 16. Hawk Island 18. Illo 1. Lost In The Moment 3. Modun 5. At First Sight 10. Moyenne Corniche 17. Saptapadi 22. Shamrocker 24. The Verminator 4. Tullamore 12. Niwot 9. Older Than Time 20. Both Glass Harmonium and Niwot has big wins today. The former wasn't going to be paid up for, but his win today changed their minds. Niwot put in a cracker. Probably the best Cup trial of the day. P.S. Thanks for the kind words TC.
While it's not ideal to be drawn out among the trees, horses have won from out there. If a horse is going to drop out, then it's no big deal, same goes for those who want to hunt up early. But of course, a heap of them will not want to be trapped deep, so a lot will go forward. Wide alleys are not the best though. But don't let me talk you out of a horse drawn deep, they do win from time to time Jana.
Morning Janabelle. This site is interesting Haven't found draw bias generally but here it is for the Melbourne Cup.
