I don't believe I'm doing this !

When you consider that, about 5 or 6 weeks ago, 'some' people were talking of a possible play-off place !!
Now I'm looking at the final two games, to see if GFC can avoid relegation ( on the last game of the season for two years in succession )..................... here it is - if anyone is interested

16th Oxford ( 53 ) Blackburn (A) Rochdale (H)
17th GFC (52 ) Bristol Rov (A) Plymouth (H)
18th Wimbledon (50 ) Wigan (A) Doncaster (A)
19th Walsall ( 48 ) Northampton (H) Bradford (A)
20th Oldham ( 48 ) Southend (H) Northampton (A)
______________________________________________
21st Rochdale ( 47 ) Plymouth (H) Oxford (A)
22nd Northampton ( 46) They are 'down' as far as I am concerned - they wont get to 52 points and have a goal difference of minus a million - even Gills won't be threatened by a load of old cobblers from somebody else for a change.
23rd MK Dons ( 42 ) -- can't catch us up
24th Bury -- already down.

I will let you all work out how many points each of the candidates will achieve from their games - thankfully some of them have to play each other - so not all of the clubs in the 16th - 21st places can get maximum points.

As I see it, even if, ( when ), we lose both our last two games, I don't think we'll finish lower than AFC Wimbledon - and might just achieve 18th -- and how many of you would have taken that back in October ?

 

I was looking at Sunderland's result and was having a little difficulty working out, why the BBC and other sources were stating they were relegated!? When I could clearly see they mathematically were not!....or so i thought...it appears my oversight was that Burton have to play Bolton still...

Bolton have 40 points
Burton have 38 points
Sunderland have 34 points

So to keep it simple, let's just say they all have two games to play....Sunderland can only get a maximum of 40 points...if Bolton draw they have 41 points...if Burton win they have 41 points, no other equation matters. Sunderland are therefore relegated.

This serves several different type of 'points' I would like to make to Mr Lovell...

1. I would like to play Sunderland next season
2. I need remind no one of Wycombe
3. Stop playing Russian Roulette with our league safety
4. Kick their arses and get the job done
5. Then sack the lot of them Pre-Season, except Zak, Eaves and Wagstaff.

Otherwise my prediction of you lasting until Christmas will start bearing fruit. Btw, i applaud the decision to drop Holy, who was starting to annoy me

 

brb - Have you seen all my threads and posts since yesterday's game ?- Have I started to annoy you ? I bet I am not as annoying as the turds on the pitch

 

I'm actually glad you made all the threads, it saved me the effort of going into a melt-down. Actually there is one thread missing, one that i always create at times like this...

 

I agree that there's one relegation spot left unfilled, but the added, and potentially greater issue, is that the 4 clubs below us, who would all need to get to 52/53 points for us to be relegated, have 3 games to play, whereas we only have 2.

Sure, some have to play each other, but given that Rochdale who currently occupy the last relegation place can get to a theoretical points total of 56 might give an idea of how much real danger we are potentially in.

At the moment it is still 'in our hands' but recent form and performances have given us little cause for optimism.

 

Given that I think we'd all agree that Northampton, MKD and Bury are going to finish below us, the full fixture list of the clubs that are probably the only ones in the mix for the one remaining relegation place is


16th Oxford ( 53 ) Rochdale (H) Blackburn (A)
17th GFC ( 52 ) Bristol Rov (A) Plymouth (H)
18th Wimbledon ( 50 ) Wigan (A) Doncaster (A) Bury (H)
19th Walsall ( 48 ) Northampton (H) Bradford (A) Fleetwood (A)
20th Oldham ( 48 ) Southend (H) Doncaster (H) Northampton (A)
______________________________________________
21st Rochdale ( 47 ) Plymouth (H) Oxford (A) Charlton (H)

The games I've put in green are the midweek games, so Oldham and Rochdale play midweek this week, and Wimbledon and Walsall play midweek next week.

The only match between clubs 16th - 21st is the Oxford - Rochdale match next Saturday, so apart from that match it's every team for itself - clubs aren't going to take points off each other to assist other struggling teams.

It's pointless (no pun intended) to try to predict what the results of those games might be, but as I see it the only advantage that Gills have is that SL has got a full week to work out his tactics and teams for each of our last 2 games.

 

Thanks Tim -
I hadn't noticed that some of the sides had 3 games left -- which doesn't make things any easier for The Gills.
I put my momentary lack of accuracy down to a few things - the smell of vomit in my nostrils, the smell of the **** of our performances in recent weeks - the fact that I am now being denied conjugal privileges ---- until Gills score again - I won't ! --- so it is no wonder that, at 4.23 am today, I was having a melt down on brb's behalf.

 

Sticking my neck out --- care to join me ?
Using Tim's updated fixture list -I am going to suggest that Walsall look to be the 4th team to occupy the 'last' relegation place. Here's how I reckon the final, 'bottom' places will look like.

16th -- -- Oxford 53 points
17th -- -- Oldham 53 points ( possibly achieving 55 points )
18th -- -- Wimbledon 53 points
19th -- -- Gills 52 points ( possibly 53 )
20th -- -- Rochdale 52 points
RELEGATED
21stt Walsall 51 points - together with MK Dons, Northampton and Bury

 

Have to say that based on current form and opposition to play I'd come to the same conclusion, but without the science of trying to predict the outcome of each game.

However, we all know that at this time of the season what might appear obvious or likely, often is not.

Yes, we might stay up with 52 points, but we might go down with 54.

 

I've just looked through every League One table (or equivalent) going right back 20 years and unless i missed one, I could not find where a single club had been relegated on 52 points.

 

But there have been cases of clubs finishing 4th from bottom on 52 points, or more.

In the Southend prediction league thread I posted

"I have had a look at the the points achieved by the 4th from bottom side in tiers 2, 3 and 4 - all 46 game seasons - for the past 20 years, and made a note of teams achieving at least 51pts. Some years get a bit difficult to judge as teams were deducted points, and of course in many seasons the position was determined by goal difference, but it shows that we shouldn't start thinking we're safe yet.

1998/9
Hull 53pts (T4)

2000/01
Bristol Rovers 51pts (T3)

2003/4
Gillingham 51pts (T2) - the year we stayed up by 1 goal

2004/5
Torquay 51pts (T3) - MK Dons finished on 51pts 5th from bottom and would have been relegated, but Wrexham were deducted 10 points and finished on 43pts

2005/6
Notts County 52pts (T4)

2007/8
Coventry 53pts (T2)

2008/9
Plymouth 51pts (T2)

2009/10
Scunthorpe 52pts (T2) - actually finished 5th from bottom but only because Palace were deducted 10 points and finished below them

2012/13
Barnsley 55pts (T2) - Peterborough were relegated finishing 3rd from bottom on 54
Plymouth 52pts (T4)

2013/14
Northampton 53pts (T4)

2016/17
Notts Forest 51pts (T2)"

 

Oddly not in T3 though, and not sure why that is or certainly not over the last 20 years. But i do accept historic history is there to be torn up.

 

We will be fine. Oldham and Walsall have to much work to do for one of them not to go down.

All this doom and gloom when we're going to smash League One next season. Cheer up people

 

Oh the joys of youthful optimism.

I'd love to be around in 30 years time to see what you're saying when your hopes have been dashed season after season.

Help! I'm turning into grumpygit!

 

People are looking for football related reasons for our sudden loss of form, it has nothing to do with our team it has to do with the others.
During the January window other teams strengthened and we didn't, we lack speed, we lack ball skills and we lack anyone with a football brain.
Can we manage another win to achieve safety based solely on hard work? in the next 2 weeks we will know.

 

MadDog hacked your account?

 

Oh don't worry, I'm just as sceptical about our chances every season as everyone else even despite being perhaps younger than a few on this board. But as the old adage goes, "when there's nothing else left, there's always hope" .

 

Yep

Hope that someone will turn up with enough beer to make you forget to go to the match

 

Did someone mention beer?

 

Will have to be a decent amount then as the temptation of beer is normally the only thing that attracts me to go to the football