Exactly what I was thinking. Every single day there are horses that aren't running to win and that will always be the case. If I had a horse in training that didn't have a future stud career planned, I'm damn sure I wouldn't want it to be trying to win every race, especially 2yos, late maturers, inexperienced etc.
Whilst horse racing operates a handicap system there will always be an element of manipulation of a horse's rating. One of the few owners I know advised me never to bet on handicaps at the Cheltenham festival without inside info. He reckoned you need at least a stone in hand to win there due to the amount of plots in each race. I can't say I follow his advice because part of the attraction for me is trying to spot an improver. As far as the good Doctor is concerned I think he was too honest for his own good before Saturdays race. I heard him in a radio interview an hour before post time essentially telling anyone who might be stupid enough to invest on PDR not to bother. I thought at the time that it was refreshingly honest of him but I'd suspect the powers that be took a different view. I doubt he'll be so candid again pre race.
I am astonished to read so much cynicism before I have written a word myself! There is a “non triers” rule to stop public schooling of horses in flat maiden races, NH novice hurdles and novice chases. That is why you will never see half the field in such events making no effort at all, being tenderly ridden and not knocked about when their (no) chance has gone. Clearly the Grand National needs to be moved to Wolverhampton on Good Friday evening under the floodlights to maximise the TV audience. Due to space limitations there will be a maximum of twelve facing the starter, the obstacles will be reduced and the distance will be four times around the circuit, which is allegedly four miles of Tapeta if someone would like to measure it. Betting on handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival means start looking at the 20/1 shots or higher. The horses with form have been rising up the weights all season so they are running for the bookies.
If, after all this, there are still people around who think it's all pleasant fun, and we all get a fair run for our betting money (), then I ask them to think about the dozens of books which have been written about scams, cheating, cons, doping, etc., etc., in the sport of thoroughbred horse racing, seldom fiction either. Harness racing is no different. I used to laugh my head off (as long as I hadn't backed any of them, of course) at the non-triers at the local trotting track near where I live. The easiest way was for the driver to take his horse wide from the start and stay there, and I honestly believed it was not difficult to make a trotter break stride, twice, and get disqualified.
I wish I could remember where I was when I first saw trotting. As you say, if you are not off today, go around the outside. You might as well bet on greyhound racing where the fix is done before they go in the traps.
