How many points do we need?

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cdvdtz

cdvdtz

Member
Apr 4, 2011
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Nottingham/Watford, UK
Apologies if this has been done already but I haven't seen a thread about it for a while (feel free to delete/merge if so).

In the 17 years since the PL became a 20-team division, the average number of points needed for 17th place is 38.5 (the highest being 44 from Bolton in 2002-03, the lowest being from West Brom with 34 in 2004-05).

Do we think the threshold for safety will be particularly high or low this year? How many point do you think we'll need, and how many can you see us getting realistically?
 
I think 35 points will be enough. I certainly can't see QPR and Reading getting more than 30 points, and Villa, Wigan and Sunderland are all struggling to beat the teams that they should be beating. Nevertheless, 40 points should be the target, if not more. I have had enough final day dramas thank you very much.
 
If we beat Sunderland we will be ahead of the point-per-game "survival" target for the first time this season. I see no reason why we can't stay ahead of that, even though January looks a bit grim. If we can get 38 points we will definitely be safe, but I think we'll do better.
 
The classic 40 pts for survival will be more than enough. I doubt Nigel and the boys have a points target though, they'll just be aiming to do whatever they have to do to stay up, take each game as it comes and try to win each one.
 
I think one point per game is normally enough. 9 wins at home, 2 away and whatever else your lucky enough to get should keep us up.
 
Well I suspect QPR and Reading will fall a way short of 40 points, probably low 30s, But I think 18th place will be more of a fight. Villa, Sunderland, Wigan and probably us. I wouldn't put it past any of them to manage a point a game by the end of the season.
 
cdvdtz said:
Apologies if this has been done already but I haven't seen a thread about it for a while (feel free to delete/merge if so).

In the 17 years since the PL became a 20-team division, the average number of points needed for 17th place is 38.5 (the highest being 44 from Bolton in 2002-03, the lowest being from West Brom with 34 in 2004-05).

Do we think the threshold for safety will be particularly high or low this year? How many point do you think we'll need, and how many can you see us getting realistically?
Click to expand...

Bolton stayed up
 
Shows how varied the safety point can be...I think it will be a bit on the low side...38 should be enough. I don't think it will be of any concern to us...I think we are finding our form and I think we have the character not to get dragged back into it.
 
I reckon that we will end up on about 40 points and that should be sufficient to survive in the prem.
 
It's not a particularly tight league this season, so far. Notice how the top two or three are walking off into the distance from other teams. It is usually reflected in the lower half. If this keeps up, there won't be a need for 38-40 points.

In any case, Saints will finish midtable, so it won't be a concern.
 
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