I really like the other Gigginstown Stud horse in this Magnanimity at 14/1. The soft ground won't be a problem and off just 10-3 with a 5lb claimer on I think he is absolutely thrown in here. Last season was a complete disaster and I am putting a line through that as both his efforts this year have shown much more promise. Beaten a long way by Sizing Europe, but over a trip far too short. The 3m2f of the Hennessy will suit him and he will be staying on when many have cried enough.
Thats an interesting shout Brigadier, I hadnt really given him a second look but all he does is stay and he goes in the ground, the big question for me though is will he be able to hold a position off the likely fierce gallop to be within striking range when the chips are down? I could see him getting run off his feet which could lead to mistakes and dropping back too far. I dont think the ground is going to be Irish Heavy anyway, just soft ground, it wont be bottomless I dont think, but with 10 stone nothing he could easily play a big part on his best form.
I was sweet on the package earlier on, however the closer we have come the more I like this horse. That is the only worry, that he won't travel too well and will be too far back. However I do think he will stick on at the end and could pick up place money and at around 14/1 he is going to carry my money.
I am still sweet on Hold On Julio, and if the ground keeps improving then he could well be a bet tomorrow. However, I am really interesting in The Package, do those of you who are backing him have any worries about the bounce factor? It is the only thing that puts me off an EW bet on him, because if he does run to form (or indeed improves) he will surely go very close.
Personally Nass, i backed him last time out when he won and was well in and fresh. He's neither this time around and was beaten twice before off 147 & i'll be shocked if he wins.
Now the final decs are up I've gone through the field: Tidal Bay - quite simply, too much weight. He is no Denman. Roberto Goldback - has been absolutely hammered by the handicapper and even Jeremy McGrath's 5lbs won't make him competitive here. Bobs Worth - I agree with his trainer, he doesn't look particularly well handicapped and surely this isn't his primary target this season? First Lieutentant - not quite up to this off 159 --------- 11lbs gap in the handicap ---------- Hold On Julio - stable knocking in the winners and if he handles the ground and doesn't hit too many, a major player Lion Na Bearnai - the Irish National winner could give you a cracking run for your money at outrageous odds Carruthers - the reigning champ and there wouldn't be a dry eye in the place if he could emulate Arkle and retain the crown. Only 1 lb higher than last year. The Package - will have been aimed at this by his shrewd handler and his seasonal reappearance was very convincing. Big chance. Teaforthree - not convinced he can yet put it all together to win a race of this calibre Fruity O'Rooney - game as the day is long but for me not on this going Saint Are - yard in great form and still unexposed - a bit of a dark horse who makes e/w appeal Duke Of Lucca - progressive sort who has a nice pull with Roberto Goldback and I think he will be will suited by the race - definite chance Diamond Harry - looked to have fallen out of love with the game last time out and surely can't get involved at the business end? Magnanimity - looks too high in the weights based on all known form Harry The Viking - with the exception of Denman this hasn't been a happy race for Paul Nicholls and I don't think Harry will change that Ikorodu Road - C&D winner in March off 134, goes off 141 here but does like the track Frisco Depot - muppet on board Soll - Willie Mullins offcast who could surprise a few here Alfie Spinner - consistent sort but not a habitual winner Prediction: 1. Duke Of Lucca 2. The Package 3. Saint Are 4. Bobs Worth
I am terrible with handicaps and can't offer any sound advice, by my reckoning First Lieutenant has every chance of going close. However, a friend had a Ditcheat tour last week and spoke to the work rider of Harry the Viking who said the horse was flying - no obvious reason for his failure at Ayr at the end of last season though the fact he never travelled leads them to think he was over the top, but they apparently said he would have run a massive race at Cheltenham last time had it not been for an horrendous blunder down the back straight that ended any chance for the horse, Ruby apparently said he had a ton of horse under him until the blunder. 25s appears the best price on the high street but much as I despise their existence I can't ignore the 36 on the exchange...
Forgot to add, they're putting cheekpieces on Harry the Viking today just to make him concentrate on his fences - apparently at Cheltenham the horse was looking up at his fences a little, could be because Ruby was on board when the horse is used to Jacob. They did the same with Poungach last weekend and he won well at Haydock and seemed to jump better....
Agreed Dan - the horse also loves Cheltenham and there's an argument he is better round there than anywhere else, the 5/1 available for the Gold Cup still looks big....
Yeah all good cheers - especially that it now looks as if Watford might have a reasonable football team Enjoying the racing of course and I must get to a meeting again soon - will give you a shout if i do anything just in case you're up for it. Went to York for the Judmonte in august and met up wiuth RV and Cats - absolute quality afternoo.
