He couldn't, could he?

[OddDog]

Just doing the maths on the remainder of AP McCoy's career and wonder whether he might be going all out to hit the magical 300 mark?

He currently has 203 winners (so needs 97 more to get to 300)
There are 73 days of the jumps season remaining, meaning he would need an average of 1.33 winners every day or, put more simply, 4 winners every 3 days.
Here his number of UK (i.e. not counting his double at Leopardstown) winners over the last 7 days: 1-1-1-0-2-1-2 or 8 winners in 7 days or an average of 1.15. If his Leopardstown double had been in the UK he would have been at an average of 1.43.
It is probably an impossible ask BUT if he keeps getting the rides then who knows? His appetite will certainly be there and maybe the training community will get behind this push for an amazing, final record?

He has 4 rides at Kelso today (2 for Peter Bowen, 1 for Lucinda Russell and 1 for Jonjo - hot favourite Holywell who ought to oblige).

What do the forumites think of his chances? Are any of those bookmaker chappies quoting? I'd have to be going around 8/1 for him to make it, but if he has a good run up to Cheltenham I would be shortening him up ...............

 

[stick]

20-1 with Bet365 Odddy

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/racing-specials/long-term/ap-mccoy/2015-season-winners

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

To quote the forum’s 3rd favourite owner, Sir Simon Cowell, ‘It’s a no from me, I’m afraid’.

And don’t forget that this period encompasses 7 days at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals. And his win rate, in recent terms, at these 2 events isn’t 1.43 now is it?!? Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more...

 

[QuarterMoonII]

I am sure that the marketing people at the BHA will be desperately trying to hype up McCoy’s last couple of months travelling around the country as he is to the National Hunt game what Frankie Dettori is to the flat – the household name.

It does seem a bit fanciful that he can get to the 300 mark with the winner consistency that is required, omitting Cheltenham and Aintree where it would not be as simple for the top stables to set him up with winners.

I have no doubt that it could be done if a few of the top trainers started running above-average class horses at the midweek fixtures at places like Newton Abbot and Plumpton so that he could win two or three races a day at long odds on. Somebody should have a word with Jonjo and JP.

The bookmakers are obviously not going to be giving anything away as they are not charities. Anything with an obvious chance that McCoy rides between now and when he finally hangs up his saddle will be shorter odds than it would have been had he not announced his imminent retirement. The smart ploy for the next few months might be to look for the ones that will not win and either lay them on the exchanges or back against them.

 

[Ron]

I'll stick with my original view (ie he won't make it). However, can anyone see him retiring on anything between 290 and 300.. If he were to be 2 short of 300 I'm sure he'll extend his career to break the 300. What are the odds of him doing just that?

 

[OddDog]

I remember a few years ago when Martin Pipe was trying to win the trainers title (I think from Paul Nicholls) and he was sending, like, 3 Grade 1 Chasers for a 12 grand handicap quite silly really. I think he also ran some of them 2 or 3 times within 10 days or so .......................... I don't think McCoy would condone that srt of thing though.

Just the one today, Holywell.

 

[Ron]

Sorry, just realised that what I said didn't make any sense at all. Dozy old git

 

[beeforsalmon]

Sadly no chance of the 300. Looked very possible late summer but injury put paid to that particular landmark record.

 

[Chaninbar]

Is this the worst value bet ever? Bet365 have AP chalked up at 25/1 to go through the card at any meet before the end of the season. How many times does he have a ride in every race at one meeting ffs.