Off Topic Great Britain General Election May 7th 2015.

This ^

 

Tbh I'd be all in favour of Scottish independence if I didn't have to live here!

The other option is the SNP will keep voting down a minority Labour government's policies and budgets but refuse to vote against it in a vote of no confidence. Just keep Milliband there as a powerless stooge who can't be removed but can't do anything. Five years of that and I think England would want to declare its own independence...

 

Such a minority would fail and be gone within 3 months. it'd merely play into tories hands.

 

That'd kill the economy as the markets would go into a nosedive over the uncertainty.

That's not a viable proposition for either the Labour party or the Nation.

 

yes this stuff is the talk of the idealists or for when the country is booming.... just like green vote.

when times are good people go off on the idealist vote. when times are tough they should be looking for stability and certainty.

 

Completely agree. Although there wouldn't be much Labour could do about it, other than have a vote of no confidence in themselves.

If Labour plus SNP makes a majority, the SNP will have all the power. Fresh elections could only be called if Labour loses a vote of no confidence - if the SNP keep backing Labour in such a vote, claiming their main goal is to 'keep out the Tories' then the only way for Labour to fall would be if Labour's own MPs voted for no confidence in their own government.

Meanwhile the SNP would be rubbing their hands at the chaos, and preparing to launch a new independence campaign as soon as the Labour minority eventually falls and the Tories take over.

It would play into the Tories hands, but that's exactly what the SNP wants, and the only way Labour could avoid it would be to pander to whatever the SNP wanted in order to get its budgets and bills through. Either that, or Labour would need to be propped up by the Tories themselves!

 

Surely in that scenario without the ability to create a coalition that provided them with a majority, Labour could simply choose not form a Govt?

As it stands I don't think they'll be largest party anyway, I think the Tories will win about 15 or so more seats than Labour.

 

True, but that would still play into the SNP's hands. If Labour plus SNP have more than 325 seats then only Labour can form a government as both Labour and SNP combined could and would block the Tories, even if Tories are largest overall.

If Labour refuses to join a coalition with the SNP, Sturgeon will just turn around and say "Look, they won't even try to let Scotland's voice be heard, new referendum needed". It's pretty much a win - win for them however you look at it. It's no wonder Labour are so willing to categorically rule out any deal with the SNP.

Imo the only stable outcome from the current election will be if either Labour plus Lib Dems (possibly with SDLP and Plaid) or Tories plus Lib Dems (possibly with DUP, maybe UKIP support) can form a majority, or at least summon enough votes to get a budget passed if Sinn Fein abstains as usual.

 

That would be the best outcome, albeit cosying up with Clegg after what he did 5 years ago would take some stomaching tbh.

The Tories won't have a chance of forming a Govt imo, as Labour plus SNP is going to be higher than the Tories plus LD, as the LD's are going to lose a hatful of seats.

 

I think labour can play it like this;

get results;

take 2 weeks negotiating... paint the snp as completely deluded and totally out of thier gords.... call new elections.

Hope to pick up enough seats on second run to get a closer minority or a coalition.

I think the worst thing is a minority government of 2 parties with snp playing games.

the best thing is to hang the whole thing and run it again until a real result comes out.

I think tories will be largest single party but cannot form a government in any eventuality.

 

That may well be how it pans out, but can anyone really see significant numbers of SNP voters turning to Labour as opposed to continuing to **** up Westminster by voting SNP?

I could see their share going up in a second ballot ffs, the sweaties would ****ing love it

 

Possibly, but then if Tories plus LD don't outnumber Labour plus SNP, Labour plus LD almost certainly won't outnumber Tories and SNP. And both Tories and SNP would oppose a Labour / Lib Dem coalition or alliance.

Don't forget that the DUP might support Tories plus LD, which might push them up close enough to 320 seats to be able to push a minority through, potentially with tacit support from UKIP and the UUP.

If the SNP decide to push the independence agenda over what's best for the country, then I can see more routes for a stable Tory minority than a stable Labour one, unless Labour plus SNP have an absolute majority.

I think that's the most likely outcome.

Although it begs the question of whether Labour would get more seats in a second vote, as failed negotiations with the SNP will cost them more votes in Scotland, and potentially in England as well if the Tories can sell it as Milliband being too weak to deal with the nationalists and being unable to form a government.

 

I can't see it being stable at all and i'd give it 3 months.

The first budget would end it.

I think we'll see a tight one for sure.

 

given it was 50/50 on their independance really the question is seriosuly what turn out will occur.

The welsh and NI parties are hoping to be holding balance of power too and do deals for more moeny.

in the end the best thing the country could do is just all vote labour and make a majority that non of these leeches can suck more cash from.

 

Ultimately it's going to be extremely close and the key marginals are going to dictate who holds the chips in the post election bartering.

Labour are going to need at lease 15 more seats than the Tories to put themselves into a strong position.

 

all true for sure.

in the end its all stunts at this point so i think by polling day people will probable fall in line one way or the other.

Have to say miliband has not be trashed by the tories so that might just help him in the end. some will look at cameron and say.. 5 more years? and then at milband and say... is he risky and all we can say is ok.. well they haven't torched the guy so far have they?

 

Miliband hasn't been trashed by the Tories, but then as the challenger he doesn't really have to be. He's the one trying to overturn a lead, and he's the one who has to make a case for being better than the incumbent, and tbh I'm not convinced he is doing it.

Like that 'pledge stone', which was full of the usual vacuous political bullshit:

"A strong economic foundation" on what?
"Controls on immigration" no **** Sherlock, we've got those already.
"Homes to buy" as opposed to homes given away for free?

It's a proper bit of political manoeuvring, in that every 'pledge' is so unspecific that he can pretty much fulfil it with anything he likes. But will that be enough to convince key marginal swing voters to vote Labour? Personally I doubt it.

 

Thats true but there;s also the fact the tories and libdems are so unpopular. This issue with any opposition in my view is they don't really have the hard numbers of picture or hard choices so most parties do exactly the same when the civivl servants come telling them the real story.

Miliband is hitting the polulist topics...

 

I'm afraid you're right.

Ed is a nice bloke and better than many give him credit for, but he comes across as a wet fish and lacks charisma. He might get away with that if he had a strong message and radical new ideas, but his manifesto is woolly and uninspiring, and he's left relying on "he's not Cameron and the Tories" in order to get elected.

I think he's going to fail, and Cameron will cobble together another unholy alliance, almost certainly less stable than the last one and with gaping wounds that they've inflicted on each other during the campaign.

 

I dunno - current polls show the Tories on 34% when they polled 36% at the last election. So they've obviously done enough to maintain most of their support - at least half of the lost votes are likely to come in Scotland.

I think there's a real chance this election will go similarly to 1992 where the notionally unpopular government will stay in power because the opposition is simply not seen as a credible enough alternative.

P.S. Haven't Labour had access to the civil service for budget and financial information for about the last month or so now under election rules?