Graveyard tracks

[SaveTheHumans]

Looking at this idea of strange results by class -

Since 2010 the average price for the winner on turf (UK only)

Class 1- 9.05 (9 runner average)
2 - 11.82 (11.8 runners)
3 - 8.81 (8.7 runners)
4 - 8.81 (8.8 runners)
5 - 8.89 (8.9 runners)
6 - 10 (9.98 runners)

Which to me shows that the more direct link between difficulty (higher odds of winner) is directly correlated with the number of runners, rather than the class of the race.

Average odds of winners by race classification

Group 1 - 10.85
G2 - 8.28
G3 - 8.96
All Handicaps - 9.59


Suggests that finding the winners of Group1s is more difficult than handicaps! Whilst Group 2s and 3s are easier to find.

Courses with highest Average Odds

York - 12.56
Newbury - 11.42
Ascot - 11
Redcar - 10.79

Courses with lowest average odds

Brighton - 7.63
Lingfield (turf) - 7.99
Chester - 8.02
Musselburgh - 8.05


Again though, I expect if you look at the number of runners per race, then you would normalise that data and the differences wouldn't be massive.

That is interesting. Are the number of group 1 races matched to the number of handicap races run though? The handicaps would be taking from a much larger pool of races as well. That figure did surprise me a little, I think you would automatically assume that it was an easier task of finding winners among the higher graded races. Assumption really is the mother of all cocks up.

Sticking to smaller field sizes then, that is definitely a postivie and something I try adhere to for the most part unless it is a quality race or I have a strong inkling toward a certain runner.