Probably won't be 20's or anywhere near that when it next runs. If SBC is right then it is next Monday.
loser loser loser & nr loser ????? amazing how many of these "gamble horses" dont oblige and in fact drift the following day. enhances my theory about bookie led/engineered gambles
its because they are not actual gambles stick, you only find out if its legit 10 mins before the race when the market gets serious most of them are backed for pennies on betfair the night before and the bookies cut them while taking little if anything on them every day there are multiple possible 'today could be the day' horses based on years old form and they always attract a little money initially but if its not actually the day they will drift back out because the serious money isnt there for them
agreed do you think the SP market is driven by the big money on the exchanges then? who does take the most money on each race?
SP is just a higher overround reflection of the exchange, with outsiders much shorter and a half point off everything else, every move in bookies prices is mirroring the exchange, the exchange is THE ONLY market. The bookies will cut instantly what shortens on the exchange because they want to be the only ones arbing but they are much slower at reflecting a drift. I think most people know if they are looking at backing something when its past the early market stage and once the days racing is in full flow then you need to look at the exchange to see whether or not to take the bookies price. If you are looking at one in the 4:30 and its 7/2 with the bookies at 4:00, if its higher than 4.5 on betfair then you wait until the bookies market goes in play, usually between 5-10 minutes before a race and take the price as soon as they give it. If that 7/2 shot is 9.0 on betfair its probably a no hoper but they will go at least 7/1 if you are sticking with it. There is usually a small window about 8 minutes out to still get some value with the bookies because there are thousands waiting on liquidity before making their plays in the last 10 mins. That 7/2 shot you fancied might go off 7/2 or shorter but there might have been chance to get 9/2 or 5/1 for a short window.
A lot of that money traded on Betfair before the off is out of bookies pockets to lay off liabilities, lock in a profit and control best odds. Serial arbers that lot though if I try it they'll limit me to penny's.
Its a licence to print, especially at the AW tracks, lay 6/4 to customers on track, in shops and online, while backing at 9/4 on the exchange. Usually only the AW though where you see that kind of difference.
As this thread has drifted off topic somewhat, I can relate my son's betting regime. He freely admits he knows nothing about betting, but follows what his mates do. (internet mates in a group similar to ours but with much, much smaller members - around a dozen apparently) They are all followers of the sport of cage fighting, and one of their group is very much more knowledgable/informed than the others. The market in these essentially 2-horse races is very easy to manipulate, and once the prices have been advertised, their main man will advise the likely winner. He then places a moderate bet on the other guy, which pushes out the potential winner to a better price. He and the group then plunge on the real target. They also sometimes do a double bluff, and he has, on occasion, been in a position of being a winner without a punch being thrown. He has had his Ladbroke account closed down, and restricted to £2 on Paddy Power, but still ok with 3 others at the moment! He has no interest in any other sport or betting medium I'm pleased to say - I know how seductive gambling can be, especially if you are winning, and I would worry too much
Looks, at this stage as if Joey’s Destiny will be going here as old boy Clifford Lee has already been booked.
It opened at 9/1 chaps. Bet365 offered a price first. Best of luck. Hope he wins for you. Still smacks of a daft bunch smashing it up the night before to me.
Opened up at 9/2 with William hill and decided to leave it! Bookies obv caught on lto! But someone is backing it as you say 3/1 am happy to leave this one out but I hope it wins tho
Opened at 8/1 and 9/1 everywhere lads. I’ve been watching the market literally all afternoon whilst having racing, rugby, the FA Cup and NFL on.
Out to 9/2 now as the money comes for the top one, Dark Alliance. Really hope that old boy Joey obliges though.
