Firstly, apologies that this a slight misnomer in that it will be more of an approach than a tightly defined system. The purpose of the approach is to try to identify horses that look capable of winning easily in the hope that the strike rate should be at least 1 in 3
I've called it Time Plus because it is initially time based but further criteria will be added. I haven't got very far with the criteria but in broad terms I will be looking only at flat races of 12f or less and will be looking at races that have been run in a time significantly faster than other races at the course on the same day. At this stage I am thinking I might want to restrict the tracks to what I might describe as class 1 tracks. Alternatively the term "significant" may be defined differently depending on the track
Having identified a race that appears to qualify, I will then look at races on other days over the same track and distance where the going is identical, to check if the race still qualifies. I will then look at the race analysis to see if the winner won easily or had to struggle, how it ran the race from start to finish etc. If it appears to have far more in hand than the winning distance indicates I will then take into account the weight it was carrying and try to assess what time it could have (potentially) achieved carrying 10 stone (say). If this looks relatively very quick then I will make a note for when this horse runs again over the same track (or similar) on similar going in a class equal or lower. I will also look at other horses in the race to see if any were desperately unlucky etc. If the horse has run at a Class 1 track (eg where group races are run) I will compare their time to the time of a group horse over the same C&D and rate it accordingly. When the horse is declared in a suitable race I will then quickly review the other horses in the race to see if any of them come close in terms of times achieved.
I know there are some who do not regard times as very useful but I firmly believe that if a horse has achieved a fast time, relative to other horses then, regardless of anything else, it has proved it can carry a certain weight and get from A to B in that time. In simple terms that means that for something to beat it, it must be able to get from the same A to B in a quicker time. Added to that, if the horse in question achieved its time easily and/or despite problems in running etc, then it is probably capable of achieving an even quicker time and provides a bit of contingency. However, if any of the opposition appears to have a lot of scope for improvement and/or is a significant market mover then, depending on the odds I would either dutch or leave the race alone as I do appreciate that just because a horse hasn't run a fast time, doesn't mean it can't
The horses I select must be able to hold a good position in a fast run race (for its class) and possess a sharp turn of foot; alternatively it could be a relentless galloper that can run the finish out of horses that rely purely on a sprint finish. Just hope I don't end up with long odds on shots
Clearly this will be time consuming so I'm not sure when I might start but I've posted it whilst it is clear in my mind and will refine it if I have any further thoughts, or as a result of any feedback. Hopefully I will get to the point where I can start to post my selections and a profit and loss account
Now I can go to bed
I've called it Time Plus because it is initially time based but further criteria will be added. I haven't got very far with the criteria but in broad terms I will be looking only at flat races of 12f or less and will be looking at races that have been run in a time significantly faster than other races at the course on the same day. At this stage I am thinking I might want to restrict the tracks to what I might describe as class 1 tracks. Alternatively the term "significant" may be defined differently depending on the track
Having identified a race that appears to qualify, I will then look at races on other days over the same track and distance where the going is identical, to check if the race still qualifies. I will then look at the race analysis to see if the winner won easily or had to struggle, how it ran the race from start to finish etc. If it appears to have far more in hand than the winning distance indicates I will then take into account the weight it was carrying and try to assess what time it could have (potentially) achieved carrying 10 stone (say). If this looks relatively very quick then I will make a note for when this horse runs again over the same track (or similar) on similar going in a class equal or lower. I will also look at other horses in the race to see if any were desperately unlucky etc. If the horse has run at a Class 1 track (eg where group races are run) I will compare their time to the time of a group horse over the same C&D and rate it accordingly. When the horse is declared in a suitable race I will then quickly review the other horses in the race to see if any of them come close in terms of times achieved.
The next stage
will be to watch recordings of the horse's most recent race (and maybe some others) to get a better feel of its potential. The jockey booking will have to be the same or one who seems to provide additional advantage. Before placing the bet I would want to watch the lead up to the race to see if there is anything to increase or reduce confidenceI know there are some who do not regard times as very useful but I firmly believe that if a horse has achieved a fast time, relative to other horses then, regardless of anything else, it has proved it can carry a certain weight and get from A to B in that time. In simple terms that means that for something to beat it, it must be able to get from the same A to B in a quicker time. Added to that, if the horse in question achieved its time easily and/or despite problems in running etc, then it is probably capable of achieving an even quicker time and provides a bit of contingency. However, if any of the opposition appears to have a lot of scope for improvement and/or is a significant market mover then, depending on the odds I would either dutch or leave the race alone as I do appreciate that just because a horse hasn't run a fast time, doesn't mean it can't
The horses I select must be able to hold a good position in a fast run race (for its class) and possess a sharp turn of foot; alternatively it could be a relentless galloper that can run the finish out of horses that rely purely on a sprint finish. Just hope I don't end up with long odds on shots
Clearly this will be time consuming so I'm not sure when I might start but I've posted it whilst it is clear in my mind and will refine it if I have any further thoughts, or as a result of any feedback. Hopefully I will get to the point where I can start to post my selections and a profit and loss account
Now I can go to bed
