Friday October 12th Daily Thread

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OddDog

OddDog

Mild mannered janitor
Staff member
Jun 2, 2011
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Berlin, Germany
Friday's racing comes from Bath, Dundalk, Wolverhampton and York on the flat, Carlisle over the jumps and Tramore has a mixed meeting.

Interesting card at Carlisle with a couple of nice novices in the 2.45, African Gold from the Twiston-Davies yard and Honeyball's Ballybough Pat locking horns on hurdling debut. Both won their bumpers in convincing style and it should be a fascinating contest. But the best race on the card is the novices chase at 5.00 where a number of very interesting horses make their chase debut. Don McCain's Amron Lad faced some very good opposition as a novice hurdler and finished off last season wit 2 wins. David Pipe's Big Occasion looked very impressive when landing a novice hurdle at the course in February and looks the type to make a nice chaser. Changing Times won a couple of races in Ireland before disappointing in the Martin Pipe at the festival for the Twister and is another who looks made for chasing. The Trevor Hemmings owned Dark Glacier won a nice race at Newcastle over hurdles and is respected on his chase bow, as is Rival D'Estruval whom he just touched off in that Newcastle race and has already had a crack at the bigger obstacles. Stronghaven won for Howard Johnson but has quite an absence to overcome but the one I am most keen to see is Malcolm Jefferson's Attaglance who took the Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle at the festival and followed up in tremendous style at Aintree off a mark of 144 to earn a hurdles rating of 155.
 
Evening Odddy

bet you are buzzing for Chepstow on Saturday looks a real good card that - hopefully I will think the same at final decs time tmz <ok>
 
I remember being at Newmarket many years ago when Generous won the Dewhurst at 50/1. Needless to say I wasn't on him <laugh>

Really hope Fingal Bay runs at the weekend, potentially a future Gold Cup winner <ok>
 
aha! a place to ask a question about tomorrow's racing <ok>

i was looking at the 2:10 carlisle and swiss art, a horse i like but isn't quite as consistently good as i'd hoped, is carrying 12-5

what's the chances it can lump that around on soft ground? would you go further down the card to find a more kindly handicapped horse like, say, laybach (2nd to bingo des mottes in heavy ground recently)?
 
rainbowview said:
Gosden horse will beat the fav <run>
Click to expand...

<laugh>

What do we make of this Dawn Approach? I did think he would get outdone by some good speedsters as a 2 year old and thought he'd improve upped a mile. I can only therefore be massively impressed with him. Love the horses attitude.


Hope he stays with Bolger permanently.
 
4.15 York

Educate 16/1 NAP

I think this horse has a serious amount of talent and now that he has been gelded (he was an absolute monkey before this) we will see the best of him. Educate made his debut on soft ground over 10f at Sandown when running a very eye catching 7th back in June. After being posted out wide, he was outpaced slightly before getting the hang of things in the home straight. He tried to make a forward move but on at least 3 occasions his path was blocked and he clearly had an absolute ton left in the tank as he came home in nearly a walk to be beaten by only 8L. That looks a pretty good maiden with the top 3 rated 90, 85 and 83. However, he made no mistake on his next start as he got off the mark in style. 12 days after his debut Educate was again campaigned over 10f this time on good to firm ground at Yarmouth where he ran out a ready an impressive winner. After sitting just behind the pace, he travelled into the race extremely well and when asked to quicken and go and win his race he hung a bit and again showed he was still very green. He eventually responded to O'Shea's urgings and he readily drew clear in impressive fashion to score by an easy 6L. The form of that race doesn't look too bad with the 2nd finishing a neck beaten 2nd in a handicap off a mark of 67 after this. Regardless of the form, he definitely won like a horse with considerable talent.

His quirks really came to the for in his next two outings after this. He made his handicap debut off a mark of 82 at Newmarket Class 3 event on heavy ground on the 14th of July. After settling towards the rear, he was rather keen for the first 4 or so furlongs and he was still clearly a bit green. Turning into the long home straight, Educate made some eye catching progress on the bridle and when Tadhg O'Shea started to get at him under hands and heels he was making progress better than anything. Then the whip came out and Educate lost the plot. He veered left and right multiple times back and forth and he ended up throwing his chance away. He was eased in the final furlong but despite all this he still managed to finish only an 8L beaten 5th in what I think looks a decent handicap. The 3rd Communicatior won on his next start off the same mark by 9L before finishing a neck beaten 2nd off a 9lb higher mark in a Listed handicap (although he probably appreciated better ground and both efforts were at Chester). A week later off a mark of 81 he came back to the same Newmarket course and it was no surprise to see a visor applied for the first time. Under Jack Doyle, Educate was settled in the rear of the 6 runner field and he seemed to settle much better. With about 3f to go, Doyle angled Educate out and he began to make progress before Doyle brought the whip through into his left hand. As soon at that happened, it appeared as if Educate was spooked and he hung violently to the left. Knowing his chance to win were gone, Doyle stop exerting maximum pressure and after all of this he was only beaten by 4L in what again looks a decent handicap. The winner has won since off a 4lb higher mark and is now rated 14lb higher whilst the 3rd and 4th have also won again off the same mark and factoring in his quirks it represented the performance of a horse with a lot of ability to put in a performance like that.

Two starts back the visor was again retained where I think he was a bit better than the bare result. He was extremely restless in the stalls beforehand and after being prominent throughout he was hampered when probably weakening as he was allowed to come home in his own time. After this he was gelded and it worked the oracle as he returned to the winners enclosure with a decisive win off a mark of 76 over 1m at Sandown on good to firm ground last month as all his quirks disappeared with the operation. I'm still furious that I somehow missed him that day as my write up for the race prior to that said "if Educate is ever gelded then I'm going to be all over him". Over a trip that I think is his absolute bare minimum, he was pushed along and outpaced with over 3f to go but his superior stamina kicked in as he won cosily by 1.5L. He was drawing away at the finish and despite the form of that Class 4 race looking pretty poor that doesn't bother me as he decisively beat the field. He's been given a 4lb rise for that which I think is more than fair. Back to a mark of 80, I will stake my reputation that this mark is comfortably within his sphere of ability and despite the 20 runner field tomorrow I'm very bullish about a big run if things pan out for him. The step back up to 10f is a huge bonus for me and based on his two efforts on soft and heavy ground I don't think he'll have a problem handling the surface. He gets in here as top weight which is a slight concern but there is only 11lb covering the whole field so its not as if he'll have to get lumps of weight away to any of his rivals. Jamie Spencer looks an interesting booking and is 2-7 for owner Sultan Ali and I think his exaggerated hold up tactics will suit Educate perfectly as long as he times it right. With the draw in stall 9 fine, I think Educate looks set to run a big race tomorrow and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he progressed at a rate of noughts now he's had his dangly bits removed as I really feel he is a classy animal. Ismail Mohammed finally seems to have found his feet in England by posting a few winners recently and if all goes to plan I'm hoping this 3 year old will take a lot of stopping.

3.05 York Credit Swap 16/1
4.05 Tramore Acts Out Loud
 
Petito said:
aha! a place to ask a question about tomorrow's racing <ok>

i was looking at the 2:10 carlisle and swiss art, a horse i like but isn't quite as consistently good as i'd hoped, is carrying 12-5

what's the chances it can lump that around on soft ground? would you go further down the card to find a more kindly handicapped horse like, say, laybach (2nd to bingo des mottes in heavy ground recently)?
Click to expand...

I think it's between the top 2 Petito - although I think Swiss Art has the better credentials. He would have needed his first run for Sue Smith at Sedgefield but absolutely bolted up last time out on heavy. I think he is just the kind of horse Sue Smith excels with and he could well show significant improvement on previous form and run up a series of wins. Jonathan England is a very capable conditional as well <ok>
 
Wolverhampton 7.15 ENROL 2/1 Stoute and Moore at Wolverhampton, that will do for my only bet today

Best Of Luck All :wink:
 
A Swinbank double at Carlisle in the 2.45 (Mitchell's Way) and 3.55 (The Ferick) with a RF on the two Lucinda Russell runners sandwiched in between in the 3.20. Moulin De La Croix to take the 4.30 with aplomb. Harry Haynes is yet to taste defeat on the back of Attaglance (also Oddy's pick); who runs in the 5.00, and I can't see that changing today, easily the best horse in that race and would represent my nap of the day.
 
"EU wins Nobel Peace Prize

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has unanimously awarded the European Union the Nobel Peace Prize for its efforts for peace, reconciliation, and democracy over the past six decades."

How's about those apples? Nearly as good as winning the Arc or the Melbourne Cup. Now I guess we have to wait for smartass remarks from Romney, Ryan, et al?
 
Jongleur said:
"EU wins Nobel Peace Prize

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has unanimously awarded the European Union the Nobel Peace Prize for its efforts for peace, reconciliation, and democracy over the past six decades."

How's about those apples? Nearly as good as winning the Arc or the Melbourne Cup. Now I guess we have to wait for smartass remarks from Romney, Ryan, et al?
Click to expand...

Another corrupt organisation that probably now thinks its justified in what its doing by being awarded this honour...!!! The place is full of lazy politicians eating of the Eruo gravy train doing absolutely nothing and not feeling the consequences for their actions... A sh1thouse of a place...!!!

In my opinion...
 
redcgull said:
Another corrupt organisation that probably now thinks its justified in what its doing by being awarded this honour...!!! The place is full of lazy politicians eating of the Eruo gravy train doing absolutely nothing and not feeling the consequences for their actions... A sh1thouse of a place...!!!

In my opinion...
Click to expand...

OK, but would hardly call the Norwegian Nobel Committee a corrupt organisation? Don't forget, it is possible you bet with corrupt people every day?

GL with your bets today! :smiley:
 
Its just the EU i have issues with Jongleur, not the Norwegian... I do think the Nobel Peace prize is a great honour to the right people, but just not to these lot of money wasting fuk-wits...
 
redcgull: Sorry, apologies, did not read your first comment properly. EU started-off OK years ago, but it's really in the mire now with its currency. Read something some 10-years ago or more by a UK brewery boss, who said the Euro was 'unsustainable'. Did not agree with him at the time, but sure looks like he was right?

SBC's white flag today, will take a rest after yesterday. Probably will have a bet or two tomorrow though!

P.S. I thought the Biden/Ryan debate was better than Saturday Night Live. Also, the Aussie PM having a right go with her opposition counterpart was quite something too. Either nowt to do with me, but both were entertaining!
 
Running at Chepstow tomorrow:

The Italian Yob (IRE)
Age: 4 (Foaled March 9th, 2008)
Sex: Bay Gelding
Sire: Milan
Dam: The Rebel Lady
Trainer: Nick Williams
Owner: The Macaroni Beach Society

Brilliant <applause> <laugh>
 
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