Friday Dec 7th Daily Thread

[OddDog]

He rode one for Henderson in one of those bumpers for jumpers heats at Kempton last Sunday Nass - did it very well. His problem is presenting a horse to an obstacle, so he should be OK

Woolly - no worries mate, that's what the forum is here for

 

[ROTO]

9.25 Dundalk

Circus Act 12/1

Pretty annoyed about the price given it was forecast to be 25/1 but I feel Circus Act is a horse that could absolute bolt up tonight. This 4 year old gelding was formerly with Mahmood Al Zarooni and Godolphin and after not achieving the heights needed for their high class operation in 4 runs he was sold to current connections for £10,000 last year. I think it is interesting that Godolphin kept him for his handicap debut and although pretty disappointing overall I certainly think he showed some ability. On his 2nd career start over 10f he shaped as if he was a horse that needed a trip to be seen to best use even though he was well beaten that day. He made his handicap debut for Godolphin off a mark of 70 when a well beaten 6th before being sold to Douglas Taylor and moved over to Ireland to Vincent Ward. For Ward to date, he has had 6 runs - 3 over hurdles and 3 on the flat and after analysing all the runs he seems to have been given extremely tender handling in all cases. His 3 runs over hurdles saw him never put into contention as he was allowed to come home at his own pace on each occasion and its clear that these 3 runs that occurred over a 21 day period in March were to get him a decent handicap mark.In relation to his flat runs, he was campaigned at Dundalk over 7/8f with his last start coming over 7f at Gowran Park in May. Again, in each occasion he was dropped out the back over a trip that was clearly too short and was tenderly handled on all 3 occasions. Resultantly, he's plummeted down the weights very quickly from a mark of 67 to 47 and given he is a Darley bred former Godolphin horse its very hard to envisage that he couldn't be competitive off this basement mark.

Circus Act's owner is now listed as MCR Bloodstock but after some investigation it appears that Douglas Taylor is the managing director of the company and the colours appear the same so it may simply be him maintaining ownership under a different name. Nevertheless, Douglas Taylor is a very interesting character as back in 2010 he landed a major punt on one of his horses called D Four Dave and reportedly picked up over €200,000 from the coup. I find this very interesting given that Circus Act appeared to be handled very tenderly in all his starts for his new yard. In relation to todays race, he comes here on the back of a 204 day absence and he is now back up in trip to just shy of 11f and the return to further looks sure to suit. Moreover, his best run to date came on the back of a 6 month absence so I think he'll be fit and ready to go for this race. In this apprentice contest, Leigh Roche takes the ride and he looks a very encouraging jockey booking - especially as his handler Dermot Weld has a runner in the field that doesn't yet have a jockey so I'm hoping that its a definite sign that Circus Act is fancied. This unexposed 4 year old has only had 8 starts on the flat to date and although he has yet to show a great deal I'd be very surprised if he didn't have enough ability to be competitive off this basement mark of 47 and although he clearly comes with a fair few risks attached I think that is most definitely factored into the price. Although the draw in stall 12 could have been kinder, I'm hoping Circus Act has indeed been laid out for a race and I'm hoping he can break his maiden at the 9th time of asking on the flat to improve his trainer's already impressive 22% strike rate at the track.

 

[YouCanCallMeJeff]

Ta Nass. Any indication whether they'll be putting the covers back on tonight? Looking at the BBC weather forecast for Esher it shouldn't be getting down below about 2°C (min temp between 8.00 and 9.00 am)

Dunno if anyone has answered you on this or not... Route back to train station across the course was closed after the meet had finished to get the covers on the course straight after racing. Winners on Taquin DuSeuil, Bold sir Brian and thecornishcockney on the way out today

 

[OddDog]

Racing on Friday comes from Sandown and Exeter over the jumps and Lingfield and Dundalk on the old polytrack.

1.10 Sandown: Thanks For Coming. Nicky Henderson's gelding finished a respectful 14 lengths 2nd to Overturn over 2 miles here and that should put him well clear of these on bare form. He is yet to encounter ground with this much give but the same can be said of his main rivals and 3/1 looks a decent price for a Henderson / Geraghty horse at this level.

1.45 Sandown: Taquin De Seuil. Finished a close 2nd to My Tent Or Yours on hurdles debut and I think that is very, very solid form. The Nicholls horse could be anything and has the beating of the McCain horse on bumper form but I think Jonjo and McCoy will take this one.

2.20 Sandown: Bold Sir Brian (NAP). Absolutely love this fella to bits and he looked very, very good on his seasonal reappearance. It's a long way down to Sandown from Lucinda Russell's yard and I don't think it will be a wasted journey.

3.30 Sandown: Tanerko Emery can quickly recover losses from Cheltenham's open meeting in this much more winnable race. He was outbattled up the hill by Ifandbutwhynot at Cheltenham but will come on again for that and he still looks fairly treated.

Lucky 15.

Best of luck to everyone - hopefully we can all rack up some ammunition for a cracking weekend's racing

€2 Lucky 15 cost €30 and returned €94.22

Would've been €526.55 if Thanks For Coming had won instead of coming 2nd

 

[Dexter]

Well done Oddy...nice return...more dollars for SS tomorrow!

Nothing for me today.

Have been waiting for Manuka to run in a 10/12f H'cap but Tommy Carmody has him entered in a rated event tonight in the 7.30 at Dundalk.

He is well drawn and the trip is ideal but this race looks trappy and 3 places at 1/5 odds not in the least tempting.Shame.

 

[OddDog]

Well done Oddy...nice return...more dollars for SS tomorrow!

Dex, already got a decent sum down at 1/2, don't think we'll see that price again. Might end up putting today's winnings on Flemenstar though - EVS still available

 

[NassauBoard]

Oddy, are you agreeing with me on Little Josh tomorrow? I have blogged about it if anyone is interested.

 

[Galaxy]

Well done all those among the winners today


One for me tonight.

9.00 Dundalk - SCARY MOVIE @ 12/1

Down to a career low mark & ran a promising race at Lingfield last month after a lay off.

 

[OddDog]

Didn't realise he was running Nass (haven't looked at Aintree yet). I had him in my 10 to follow last season and I must admit I really like Paddy Power Gold Cup winners - they often take the race on a relatively low mark (being unexposed) and are often worth following. I backed Little Josh in the Topham as well and he ran a decent race but I think he may well have been a bit over the top, having had 4 runs in relatively quick succession after a year out with injury. I really like his chances tomorrow for the reasons you point out on your blog, plus I also think he goes really well fresh

 

[smokethedeadbadger]

Patent on Murtagh's three rides tonight at Dundalk

7:00 Edith Cowan 3/1
7:30 Manuka 5/1
8:00 Akasaka 8/1

 

[Dexter]

Dex, already got a decent sum down at 1/2, don't think we'll see that price again. Might end up putting today's winnings on Flemenstar though - EVS still available

I'm very much with Flemenstar on Sunday as well.

What a race it promises to be,in fact a great weekends action when Aintree is also factored in.

 

[Dexter]

Having my first drink in 12 days..what self control I have....off out later for dinner with friends at Darcy's and later party in the Errigle...I'm gonna wreck it!!

 

[NassauBoard]

8s into 6s. Nasswise

 

[smokethedeadbadger]

Zainda in this at Dundalk

 

[OddDog]

Having my first drink in 12 days..what self control I have....off out later for dinner with friends at Darcy's and later party in the Errigle...I'm gonna wreck it!!

Been laying off the sauce as well Dex, feeling much better for it. However, friends coming round tonight for a raclette evening so I'm just warming up with a couple of ice-cold Warsteiners

 

[Dexter]

Interesting to see Giggenstown doing a "Bog Warrior" with Roi Du Mee tomorrow and trying to win with a significantly lower hurdles mark.

He will run off 111 when the excellent Jane Mangan's claim is deducted.This represents a mark a massive 37lb's below his 'chase mark.

Tbf this horse isn't easy to place since he is very small and won't be up to carrying a big weight in a h'cap 'chase and isn't good enough to compete at G1 level over fences.He's still a useful tool and has already won at Listed and Graded level this season.

His price will be below 2/1 I would imagine...anyone feeling brave/foolhardy!

 

[Dexter]

Been laying off the sauce as well Dex, feeling much better for it. However, friends coming round tonight for a raclette evening so I'm just warming up with a couple of ice-cold Warsteiners

Nice one Oddy!

 

[OddDog]

Jesus I just watched the Fingal Bay race - that looked really nasty, thank goodness they have these plastic rails - imagine what would have happened 20 years ago

This may well just be coincidence, but does anyone remember another Hobbs horse, Captain Chris, jumping violently to the right in his novice season? I had completely written him off for the Arkle after seeing him jump violently right at Newbury (I think). Very strange Fingal Bay he's never shown a tendency to do that before, although he has mostly run left handed (his Sandown victory over Simonsig being the obvious exception). I really think something was seriously bothering him today, he has always looked so strightforward.

 

[NassauBoard]

Jesus I just watched the Fingal Bay race - that looked really nasty, thank goodness they have these plastic rails - imagine what would have happened 20 years ago

This may well just be coincidence, but does anyone remember another Hobbs horse, Captain Chris, jumping violently to the right in his novice season? I had completely written him off for the Arkle after seeing him jump violently right at Newbury (I think). Very strange Fingal Bay he's never shown a tendency to do that before, although he has mostly run left handed (his Sandown victory over Simonsig being the obvious exception). I really think something was seriously bothering him today, he has always looked so strightforward.

agree, hope they find out what is wrong with him.

 

[Dexter]

I remember Colin Tinkler going through wooden wings at Newcastle in the early 80's and receiving a broken pelvis...many other jocks such as Joe Blanks died as a result of wooden/concrete rails..thank God they have been replaced as well.