Daily Racing Thread Friday 7th. August 2020

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13/8 looks big on the ex Varian beast that FOB has picked up running in that juvenile hurdle in the opener at Cartmel. Ground would be the only concern if it firmed up..

Edit: Out of interest, how much schooling would the horse have gotten in the short time with FOB, sold out of a flat yard in last month and doubt Varian would have popped a hurdle with him.
 
Amlad 5/1 Sligo 4.30 - has been in good form his last few runs and has dropped down the handicap a fair way since his time in England, he was closing all the way to the line recently and they go back to 12 f again here in hope he finishes this out strongly. He has winning form off a mark much higher than this over the distance and if Shane Foley can get him handy turning in on this sharp track, he could take beating for what would be a long overdue success. I rate Universal Focus as the biggest threat but I feel if he is held up he may struggle to land a blow.

Best of luck folks.
 
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gillamandango said:
13/8 looks big on the ex Varian beast that FOB has picked up running in that juvenile hurdle in the opener at Cartmel. Ground would be the only concern if it firmed up..

Edit: Out of interest, how much schooling would the horse have gotten in the short time with FOB, sold out of a flat yard in last month and doubt Varian would have popped a hurdle with him.
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Yard have poor record with juvenile hurdlers and as you’ve said they’ve not had him long. I’m worried about tongue tie first time and as Stick mentioned to me earlier his sire isn’t prolific in hurdle races.
 
He doesn't finish off his races so not surprising they went for the tongue tie. If he can jump, I think his flat rating wins this for him as the ex Bolger horse doesn't seem to be up to much and the French import for Pipe has not run a race since its maiden win at a regional track two years ago. The rest of them are mediocre at best.


NassauBoard said:
Yard have poor record with juvenile hurdlers and as you’ve said they’ve not had him long. I’m worried about tongue tie first time and as Stick mentioned to me earlier his sire isn’t prolific in hurdle races.
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gillamandango said:
He doesn't finish off his races so not surprising they went for the tongue tie. If he can jump, I think his flat rating wins this for him as the ex Bolger horse doesn't seem to be up to much and the French import for Pipe has not run a race since its maiden win at a regional track two years ago. The rest of them are mediocre at best.
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so is 13/8 a fair price for a horse who isn’t finishing his races over shorter in the flat on hurdles debut at a track with a long run in which often finds horses out?

it’s far too short. It might win but it’s the wrong price.
 
A few to avoid from me today, all small stakes as usual:

1:45 Sandown - Pink Sands 5/2 Win
2:10 Sligo - Sebs Star 10/1 Ew
2:45 Sligo - Aussie Valentine 12/1 Ew
4:20 Cartmel - Oksana 15/2 Ew (4 Places)
4:35 Sandown - Gypsy Whisper 5/2 Win
6:40 Tipperary - Watchmen 11/2 Win

I've also had two £1 reverse forecasts purely down to names on:

4:05 Sandown - Margaret Dumont/Dancing Harry (my mums name Margaret and my grandad (her dad) was called Harry. Well still is called Harry but he's dead so you know what i mean)
4:10 Tipperary - Giselles Thunder/Lightning Boltz
 
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gillamandango said:
He doesn't finish off his races so not surprising they went for the tongue tie. If he can jump, I think his flat rating wins this for him as the ex Bolger horse doesn't seem to be up to much and the French import for Pipe has not run a race since its maiden win at a regional track two years ago. The rest of them are mediocre at best.
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I think the ex Bolger horse is probably as good as the ex Varian horse and is more likely to take to hurdles than the favourite. He is also ridden by FOBs star jockey while the fav has the yard kid on board. At 9/2 I thought it was worth a punt last night.
 
Morning

7.50 Wolverhampton-Without Freedom And Wheat

Compass Point

Each Way @ 7-1 [Bet 365] 3 Places

Like the jockey booking
 
stick said:
I think the ex Bolger horse is probably as good as the ex Varian horse and is more likely to take to hurdles than the favourite. He is also ridden by FOBs star jockey while the fav has the yard kid on board. At 9/2 I thought it was worth a punt last night.
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it’s not the yard kid, it’s the owners kid!!
 
gillamandango said:
He doesn't finish off his races so not surprising they went for the tongue tie. If he can jump, I think his flat rating wins this for him as the ex Bolger horse doesn't seem to be up to much and the French import for Pipe has not run a race since its maiden win at a regional track two years ago. The rest of them are mediocre at best.
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well done and to answer your earlier question, he’s been in yard 3 weeks and been schooling regularly for that time.
 
The 2.55 Sandown sees an odds-on favourite in a Handicap race.

Mon Choix hosed up be more than 7 lengths on Monday and in theory is well in under the 6 lbs penalty. I have never found it to be profitable backing such short priced favourites in Handicaps and at odds-on, you need a powerful strike rate to make it pay long term.

I decided to go with Kingston Kurrajong, who is getting on in years but he ran well last time when only beaten a short head. He won from today's mark of 77 last September and he has Jim Crowley on board today. The horse should be thereabouts today and at 12/1 EW he appealed as a more appetising option than going large on the odds-on favourite.

2.55 Sandown Kingston Kurrajong 12/1 EW
 
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Grendel said:
The 2.55 Sandown sees an odds-on favourite in a Handicap race.

Mon Choix hosed up be more than 7 lengths on Monday and in theory is well in under the 6 lbs penalty. I have never found it to be profitable backing such short priced favourites in Handicaps and at odds-on, you need a powerful strike rate to make it pay long term.

I decided to go with Kingston Kurrajong, who is getting on in years but he ran well last time when only beaten a short head. He won from today's mark of 77 last September and he has Jim Crowley on board today. The horse should be thereabouts today and at 12/1 EW he appealed as a more appetising option than going large on the odds-on favourite.

2.55 Sandown Kingston Kurrajong 12/1 EW
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Sorry to say I also like that one!
 
Symbolic Power didn't look particularly like he was money well spent at 2.3 million Guineas in the 2.20 Sandown.

The race was won by the experienced Recovery Run, who had two 2nds on his first couple of runs. Lone Eagle made a promising debut but he looked as if he should have won that but carried himself awkwardly in the closing stages. He was a 500,000 Guineas purchase and is by Galileo out of a mare related to Reams Of Verse and Elmaamul. He would be the obvious one to take from the race but he seemed slightly odd in his action today.

Pied Piper was Gosden's representative and is owned by the Queen. Ominously weak in the betting, as several of Gosden's 2YO's have been this season. Opened at 7/2 in a place last night, they couldn't give him away and he went right out to 11/1. Ironically for a legendary namesake famous for having followers, the Queen's Pied Piper could not summon the following of the Hamelin *****phile, who used to lure children to a cave with his pipe music in the days before Werther's Originals, to punish the parents for not paying the rat disposal bill.

It's been a pretty poor looking bunch of 2YO's for Gosden so far this season.

Mark Johnston's Golden Horn colt, Love Is Golden, was tailed off in last place and the stable were 8/120 coming into today.
 
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I have to take issue with 'Hamelin *****phile', Grendel, unless I missed Volume 2! I always had him pegged as a lesson to anyone who reneged on a deal - if you court a reaction don't complain about the reaction you get...the town promised to fill his pockets with gold if he got rid of the rats. They ****ed him over, they lost their kids. Ergo, if you make a deal, stick to it. A bit harsh, but that's the memorable thing with lessons...
 
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