Many years ago, before Machiavellian was beaten at short odds in the Guineas, the racing journalist John Karter observed “the French will not hear of defeat for the unbeaten Machiavellian at Newmarket, but, as we all know, deaf people abound in racing.”
Nine fillies face the starter for The Oaks and there looks to be little to assess. Qilin Queen won the Listed Newbury Fillies’ Trial in a photo from Revoir with favourite Sand Gazelle just behind. Revoir did not have an official rating going into that and the other two were rated in the 90s, so can either of them find a stone of improvement over the extra two furlongs today? I think not. Wemightakedlongway has won two races on easy ground, most recently when making all in a Group 3 at Navan, where the favourite (from the Tarnawa/Tahiyra family) ran abysmally but the runner-up had won easily on debut. She could be the pace angle today but is a doubtful stayer. Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Giselle beat just two rivals and it is easy to see why Ryan Moore has left the Frankel filly to Colin Keane. The only representative for the Gosdens (trainers of Sand Gazelle) is Go Go Boots but there is little reason to think that she will reverse running with easy Musidora winner Whirl over an extra two furlongs. Of the three Ballydoyle runners, Whirl’s clearly looks the best form, so why Moore has chosen Cheshire Oaks winner Minnie Hauk is a mystery. The Chester form has already been let down by the runner-up at Chantilly last Sunday. Elwateen is a bit of an unknown but she ran fourth in the 1000 Guineas, won by Desert Flower. At the beginning of the week, I was hoping that the bookies might want to take on the 1000 Guineas winner as I have not backed her ante post. Instead her odds have contracted making this a no bet; however, I thought she looked like an Oaks filly when she won the Fillies’ Mile and her first Classic victory did not diminish that view. I hear nothing.
Clearly the form pick in the Coronation Cup is Francis-Henri Graffard’s gelding Calandagan, but his three previous visits to these shores have seen him win the King Edward VII at Ascot, run second in the Juddmonte at York and run second in the Champion Stakes scrimmaging match! He was second in the Dubai Sheema Classic to a Japanese horse and it is difficult to see why fifth home Giavellotto (winner of the Hong Kong Vase) should reverse that running. It is hard to make a case for the first of the Ballydoyle duo, Continuous, as he only has one win in the last two seasons and was stone last in the Yorkshire Cup and the Tattersalls Gold Cup on his last two starts. It seems obvious that he is here as a pacemaker for St Leger winner Jan Brueghel. Ryan Moore’s mount lost his unbeaten record in a Group 3 last time but was not given a hard time. Last year’s Irish Oaks winner You Got To Me was last in the St Leger and failed to confirm The Curragh placings with Content in the Yorkshire Oaks. She was a well beaten fourth in The Oaks after pulling too hard so it is hard to fancy her today first time out. Ancient Wisdom contested last year’s Derby, finishing eighth, but in two races this term has been last in the John Porter and second in the Gordon Richards. He will need to do much better to trouble the French raider today. Bellum Justum has met the Godolphin colt twice – he finished seventh in the Derby (nearly three lengths ahead); and fifth in the John Porter. He won a mediocre Jockey Club Stakes at the Guineas meeting easily against three rivals and would have been of each-way interest here if there were more than seven runners...
