Daily Racing Thread Friday 5th. June 2020
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damn it thought it had that for a moment, will settle for the 2nd though nice drift
Been told Desert Encounter 50/1 wins
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The Derby Trial looks a woeful affair today. It is hard to imagine any of them having a role to play in the actual Derby itself.
Berkshire Rocco is highest on official ratings with 104 and that is a modest figure for a horse with four starts as a 2YO and aspirations of contesting a Classic. He was steadily progressive last year before a seeming leap forward in the Zetland that saw his RPR rise by 17lbs. I am slightly suspicious of that new personal nest and Max Vega did very little for the Zetland form earlier in the week. He has been well backed but at 5/2 now he's not for me with the question mark about his sudden improved RPR.
English King is well supported today but I think he looks terrible value at 15/8. I see Simon Rowlands has tipped him up on ATR and the colt won nicely last time out. That race has worked out from the point of view that the 2nd and 3rd have won since but the 3rd horse came in rated 80 when he finished behind English King and the enthusiasm about the form being boosted has to be tempered by the fact that the two horses concerned both won egg and spoon races where they were 1/5 Fav and 4/5 Fav, so it's tenuous to claim a form upgrade from such modest contests. English King could well improve and win a mediocre looking renewal but Simon Rowlands tipped him at 10/3 and I wonder if he would be as enthused at 15/8?
I decided on taking a chance at bigger odds with King Carney. He was progressive last year after a 5th then and a 2nd where he was thrashed by John Gosden's Cape Palace who was a leading light in the Derby betting in the aftermath of his eight length success but then blotted his copybook when flopping next time. King Carney got off the mark next time but that race has not panned out to be much. It was his final start of the season that gives hope from his Listed win at Pontefract. He finished ahead of three horses rated in the 90s that day and the 6th went on to win a Gp2 at Doha. It was soft ground that day and King Carney faces much faster ground today but as a son of Derby winner Australia he should improve this season. The sire took time to get going himself as a 2YO and a chance is taken that King Carney won despite the soft ground, rather than because of it, last time. Very weak in the market today but I would rather take 8/1 than bet on one of the leading pair at an unattractive coupling of 15/8 and 9/4 at the head of the betting.
In the Oaks trial Zetland runner up Miss Yoda leads the betting but I have already said that the winner Max Vega was uninspiring the other day. Her odds are too short for me and Gosden has others in the race. The trainer has already had a springer in the big race market with Frankly Darling now 12/1 form 66/1 (I have a tiny bet at the bigger price) but I think Miss Yoda will need to win really well to reach the upper echelons of the Oaks market. As a token bet I sided with Lake Lucerne at 9/1. The daughter of Dubawi rated a modest 46 when 7th on debut but went up 32 lbs to 78 next time when winning. It is hoped she has come on again the the three months since and by golly she needs to have done but I couldn't bet Miss Yoda at odds-on and Heart Reef is a bit skinny now as well, given she faces a favourite rated with a greater than 50% chance of winning. West End Girl seemed hit and miss last year and faces a good step up from a mile now as well. It's a very tentarive selection on Lake Lucerne in the hope she steps forward markedly.
2.40 Lingfield Lake Lucerne 9/1
3.15 Lingfield King Carney 8/1
Two singles and an each-way double. Two Kon-Tiki market drifters that most will likely be avoiding but it's about a bit of fun at prices.
Berkshire Rocco is highest on official ratings with 104 and that is a modest figure for a horse with four starts as a 2YO and aspirations of contesting a Classic. He was steadily progressive last year before a seeming leap forward in the Zetland that saw his RPR rise by 17lbs. I am slightly suspicious of that new personal nest and Max Vega did very little for the Zetland form earlier in the week. He has been well backed but at 5/2 now he's not for me with the question mark about his sudden improved RPR.
English King is well supported today but I think he looks terrible value at 15/8. I see Simon Rowlands has tipped him up on ATR and the colt won nicely last time out. That race has worked out from the point of view that the 2nd and 3rd have won since but the 3rd horse came in rated 80 when he finished behind English King and the enthusiasm about the form being boosted has to be tempered by the fact that the two horses concerned both won egg and spoon races where they were 1/5 Fav and 4/5 Fav, so it's tenuous to claim a form upgrade from such modest contests. English King could well improve and win a mediocre looking renewal but Simon Rowlands tipped him at 10/3 and I wonder if he would be as enthused at 15/8?
I decided on taking a chance at bigger odds with King Carney. He was progressive last year after a 5th then and a 2nd where he was thrashed by John Gosden's Cape Palace who was a leading light in the Derby betting in the aftermath of his eight length success but then blotted his copybook when flopping next time. King Carney got off the mark next time but that race has not panned out to be much. It was his final start of the season that gives hope from his Listed win at Pontefract. He finished ahead of three horses rated in the 90s that day and the 6th went on to win a Gp2 at Doha. It was soft ground that day and King Carney faces much faster ground today but as a son of Derby winner Australia he should improve this season. The sire took time to get going himself as a 2YO and a chance is taken that King Carney won despite the soft ground, rather than because of it, last time. Very weak in the market today but I would rather take 8/1 than bet on one of the leading pair at an unattractive coupling of 15/8 and 9/4 at the head of the betting.
In the Oaks trial Zetland runner up Miss Yoda leads the betting but I have already said that the winner Max Vega was uninspiring the other day. Her odds are too short for me and Gosden has others in the race. The trainer has already had a springer in the big race market with Frankly Darling now 12/1 form 66/1 (I have a tiny bet at the bigger price) but I think Miss Yoda will need to win really well to reach the upper echelons of the Oaks market. As a token bet I sided with Lake Lucerne at 9/1. The daughter of Dubawi rated a modest 46 when 7th on debut but went up 32 lbs to 78 next time when winning. It is hoped she has come on again the the three months since and by golly she needs to have done but I couldn't bet Miss Yoda at odds-on and Heart Reef is a bit skinny now as well, given she faces a favourite rated with a greater than 50% chance of winning. West End Girl seemed hit and miss last year and faces a good step up from a mile now as well. It's a very tentarive selection on Lake Lucerne in the hope she steps forward markedly.
2.40 Lingfield Lake Lucerne 9/1
3.15 Lingfield King Carney 8/1
Two singles and an each-way double. Two Kon-Tiki market drifters that most will likely be avoiding but it's about a bit of fun at prices.
Maybe that is the plan but it seems insulting madness to use a horse as a pacemaker for another one when there is only one pound between their official ratings and the lower rated is the least exposed of the two.
Maybe it's a cunning plan and Anthony Van Dyke is going to make it for Broome
It's probably all academic and Ghaiyyath will never see another rival. Just a small stake for fun for me.
Broome is an absolute boat, cant see him excelling on the lightning quick ground today, same for Defoe.
Stradivarius will love the ground.
Stradivarius will love the ground.
Did you back Stradivarius today? I had a think about it but can't get away from the fact that he has not run over this short for more than 3 years and that was in a Chester handicap off 90.
No but I think hes the type of horse who could still run to a high level at 1m4. This tends to be a weak Group 1 and has been won by proper stayers like Ask, Yeats, Scorpion and Fame And Glory. Obviously today its a less testing 1m4 at Newmarket but I think hell run well.
Looks like the rain has started there and dark cloud covering, hopefully not too much before the Guineas.
Cant see any of them troubling the judge in the Oaks, West End Girl was 28L last in the Fillies mile and finishes a close 3rd.
Non runner Lake Lucerne after all that. The Fav got there in the end having missed the break and pulled hard. Heart Reef was feeble and one of the first beaten and I suspect that race was a load of codswallop.
Miss Yoda 14/1 for the Oaks now. Err, no thank you.
Runner up Golden Lips came in with an official rating of 80 after five starts and you have to give her a hefty upgrade just to say that Miss Yoda ran to her official mark of 102. You could argue that Golden Lips has improved for the step up in distance and an aggressive ride but even then it would be virtually impossible to make a case for changing Miss Yoda's official rating.
Miss Yoda 14/1 for the Oaks now. Err, no thank you.
Runner up Golden Lips came in with an official rating of 80 after five starts and you have to give her a hefty upgrade just to say that Miss Yoda ran to her official mark of 102. You could argue that Golden Lips has improved for the step up in distance and an aggressive ride but even then it would be virtually impossible to make a case for changing Miss Yoda's official rating.
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Good win for English King.
Pleased I took the 66/1 on offer for the Derby now this morning!
Pleased I took the 66/1 on offer for the Derby now this morning!
first winner after the restart 
To be fair only 2 previous today, both lost! How taking was English King...... one to watch methinks
Very cosy for English King there. A worthy winner indeed.
King Carney never had a prayer after going off like a scalded cat. I do sometimes wonder what connections/jockeys are thinking sometimes. Probably not good enough anyway but he was never racing properly today. Good shout early doors at 10/3 by Simon Rowlands and this colt is improving quickly. I see ITV are bigging the winner up quite strongly but 12/1 for the Derby seems ridiculous to me.
Hey ho, it is the silly season.
King Carney never had a prayer after going off like a scalded cat. I do sometimes wonder what connections/jockeys are thinking sometimes. Probably not good enough anyway but he was never racing properly today. Good shout early doors at 10/3 by Simon Rowlands and this colt is improving quickly. I see ITV are bigging the winner up quite strongly but 12/1 for the Derby seems ridiculous to me.
Hey ho, it is the silly season.
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