Suesa was a crazy price in the Commonwealth Cup last time. I had backed her ante-post for that race at 20/1 but 9/4 on the day was insane. Much was made of her winning on soft but it was Heavy at Ascot and I think 6F was too far on that surface. Dropping to 5F should help and she is 12/1 this time.
The obvious starting point is Battaash and he has owned this race, now going for five on the trot it seems amazing he is 13/8 here, after winning at 2/7 last season. Of course Old Father Time catches up with them all eventually and he wasn't at his best at Royal Ascot but he is still a class act who needs respecting.
Dragon Symbol was first past the post in the Commonwealth Cup but lost out to Campanelle in the Stewards Room. I backed him against Starman last time but he couldn't match the Walker horse, luckily for me he held on for second and landed my reverse forecast but he doesn't have much in hand over Art Power from his last start and is 2 lbs worse off now. In addition, he has only run at 5F once and although winning, it was in a lesser race at Hamilton.
Art Power may be suited by the drop to 5F having probably burned too strong over 6F a couple of times. He doesn't win often enough for my liking but has place claims after decent efforts this season.
Glass Slippers is a grand sort but seems to need her first race of the season and puts up her best performances later in the season. That is probably the reason she is 14/1.
Arecibo has made big strides this season, coming from 91 to 112 on official ratings. He was runner up in the Kings Stand and then gave Came From The Dark a fright in the Coral Charge. Third home, Happy Romance won next time out and perhaps Arecibo is underestimated because he is 6YO and not getting credit for having improved a good bit for leaving David O'Meara's yard and joining Robert Cowell. 16/1 seems a big each-way price.
Conclusion:-
Battaash has drifted to 7/4 now and could go 2/1. That seems a big price. He was a bit disappointing at Ascot and looking back at last year's Nunthorpe it seems hard to believe that not one winner has come out of that race in 29 subsequent starts. I am not seeing Dragon Symbol as value at his odds, despite him and Campanelle being clear of the remainder in the Commonwealth Cup. Art Power has every chance of reversing their latest form on 2lbs better terms and is double the odds at 6/1. In the end I played Arecibo at 16/1 each-way for 4 places. I also had a saver on Suesa in case she does bounce back. I doubt she will be popular and could see her drifting to a bigger price than the current 12/1. I feel she is better than she showed last time and the trainer seems to retain faith in her.
3.35 Goodwood Arecibo 16/1 EW 1,2,3,4 and Suesa 12/1 win only.
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