Jonbon drifting like a barge this morning - out from 4/7 to 5/4 in places. Certainly not good vibes ahead of his hurdles debut (although the horse doesn't know that of course).
Some really fascinating racing from the Berkshire venue today, particularly the novice races:
12.10 Stage Star is awfully short in the opener but did look very good at Chepstow. He has the penalty to shoulder and the Queen's runner for Lieutenant Henderson, Kincardine, is of obvious interest. On breeding he ought to be more about stamina than speed and the nature of his Southwell bumper win (form not the strongest at all) would seem to confirm that. Stage Star's form looks the strongest by a mile and it will be a major surprise if he doesn't win this.
12.40 A small but select field for this Grade 2 novice chase and the weights could be the decisive factor. Tea Clipper carries 5lbs extra for his Chepstow victory whilst the 4YO Nassalam gets a healthy 9lbs WFA from his 3 rivals. Ordinarily I think that could just be enough to sway things his way but I have my doubts about him on fast ground and at the prices I will take a chance on Pic D'Orhy who ran a career-best here over hurdles when taking the Betfair Hurdle and jumped (mostly) and travelled well at Ffos Las last time out.
1.15 As mentioned above, Jonbon is drifting alarmingly and his 3 main market rivals, Good Risk At All, Boombawn and Charlie's Glance have all shortened. If this continues then Sam Thomas' runner Good Risk At All could well go off favourite, despite himself being turned over at 1/3 fav on hurdle debut at Chepstow. I'll stick with Jonbon, 5/4 could look massive after the race.
1.50 I guess all eyes will be on Boothill who finished a fine 3rd on his hurdles return and now goes chasing. There isn't much chasing experience amongst the rest of the field - Solo was just touched off by Nassalam at Ascot when trying to give him 5lbs whilst Fifty Ball ran a nice 3rd at Sandown on his chase debut. The most experienced is bottom weight Not Available but he does look thoroughly exposed after 7 chases and will likely once again find a couple of these too good. I'll take a chance on Mister Coffey who looks a real chasing type and will handle underfoot conditions.
