Daily Racing Thread Friday 26th. April 2019

Friday's Meetings

Perth
N/H 7 Races 1:30-4:45p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:00p.m.
Sandown
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:05p.m.
Bangor-on-Dee(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:40-7:50p.m.
Chepstow(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:50-8:00p.m.
Kilbeggan(E)
N/H 7 Races 4:55-8:10p.m.

Racecards
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Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

The 4.35 Sandown sees a filly I have been waiting to get another look at for a while now. Sparkle Roll was favourite on her debut as a 2YO but looked sluggish that day, never really picking up in finishing 5th. Next time out at Haydock she was easy to back at 15/2 but it was a different story as she came right away to win by more than 3 lengths. Not a great race but she won readily and importantly she looked a good stayer that day. A grey daughter of Kingman she would not appear as certain to get 12F but she is a half sister to Derby winner Wings Of Eagles and she holds an Oaks entry.

The word before her second start last season was that she had come forward a lot on the gallops since her debut run and it sure looked that way. On a RPR of just 82 she does not make much appeal as a bet for tomorrows race, bearing in mind that she has to concede 7 lbs all round because she is already a winner. She has plenty of scope to improve and her half brother came forward a long way at Epsom so it seems a better option for me to back her for an open looking Oaks at 25/1. A win tomorrow conceding weight would surely see her odds contract for Epsom on 31st May.

The Oaks has been stagnant most of the winter with early favourite Iredessa having made no appeal to me. Pink Dogwood has been the filly for money in the Oaks these past few weeks. Available at 33/1 about three weeks ago, Pink Dogwood has been popular this past week and is generally only 8/1 in most places now. Perhaps she is deemed the one to beat but it may just reflect that she is the best of Aidan's team. The O'Brien fillies looked far from a vintage crop last season and watching Pink Dogwood in the Marcel Boussac last October there are a couple of concerns for me. One factor is that the race has not worked out very well since and Pink Dogwood tried to make all that day before being swamped and finishing 5th. The margins between the fillies that day were small and perhaps raised concerns about quality given that they were so tightly packed. That worry has been reinforced with only Matematica winning since and she was Fav in a very weak looking French maiden race. The biggest concern I have is that Pink Dogwood did not look as if further would have helped her in that Boussac run.

I'll pass on the Sandown race, especially with Gosden batting slightly below average this month, and instead backed Sparkle Roll for the Oaks at 25/1. Hopefully she can win in decent fashion and shorten up for an Oaks run via another race.

The Oaks Sparkle Roll 25/1

 

Morning

Two bets on the ITV races at Sandown

2.25-Trais Fluors...each way @ 13-2 [Bet 365]
3.35-Regal Reality...each way @ 15-2 [Paddy Power]

 

Happy Friday folks.
I having a punt on Mark Johnstons 3 runners at Sandown, singles and an e/w treble.
Also his one runner at Donny.
Have a good day.

 

Today we see Dan Gun at Perth, this horse was subject of a bit of controversy when they found him as a non trier on UK debut for FOB and he has been very poor since then. He’s slipped to a tempting mark and the yard are flying. I’d be more confident if Brennan or Brace was riding but Alain is a classy jock and could get a tune out of Dan Gun

3:45 Dan Gun

 

Two for me today:

4:45 Perth - High Renown 14/1 jockey booking takes the eye for its debut in what is supposedly the yards 'second string' in the race.
4:50 Chepstow - Kovera 10/1

Win singles and ew double

 

I see the Skeltons have thier first runner for JP today. (At least I take it is anyway)

 

It is indeed. Interesting that it’s a buy into the yard rather than a purchase of one of their horses. You can say a lot about JP but he supports so many trainers.

 

Have been given two today;

5.05 Sandown- Noble Lineage- 3/1 7.00 Chepstow Espalion- 3/1

 

I think we need to put a bit of flesh on the bones of this one. Been ‘given’ them by who (or should that be whom)?!?

 

And a few of those trainers can say a lot about him (and his ‘dreaded’ management team) as well!

 

From two different people- one jockey was meant to have a ride for my local yard but the horse was NR this was his best Chance today for winner and was very confident . And the other I take with a pinch of salt but is usually pretty reliable

 

That’s fair enough. People, please state something like this when detailing ‘I’ve been told's…’. By doing so you stop my bally blood pressure from shooting through the old ceiling. I can happily report that I'm now calm...

 

'by whom' I guess, but I wouldn't worry about it, I would have to double-check with Rainer!

Have no idea from whom Wooly received these advices, but when he gives an opinion on a horse trained in the south, especially the southeast of the country, then it is well worth taking note of. Wooly is well-connected and even rides-out for a few southern trainers, so I understand.

 

Had me agonising for seconds that – should it be ‘who’ or ‘whom’?!?

Can’t claim to know the Jeremy Scott yard at all but he was the trainer, for a bit, of Mighty Moose (who a pal of mine had a share in – over the years I may have mentioned this once or a hundred times!). Scott was a chap that he always spoke very highly of.

 

It's a Fun Friday

2.40 Perth Schiehallion Munro, based on the Wetherby form, handicap debut today for the horse, BET365 are willing to give me 5/1, I'll have that thanks!

( from walkhighlands.co.uk: " Schiehallion is one of the most familiar and best known mountains in Scotland. A whaleback ridge from most viewpoints, it appears as a perfect cone when seen from across Loch Rannoch. Contour lines were invented on the mountain as part of an experiment to determine the mass of the earth. " )

2.50 Doncaster Mrs Discombe, Nottingham novice in August looks good form, was 66/1 3rd that day, Quinn / Norton, what more can I say ? Well, liked this at 10/1 earlier this morning, but it's drifting like crazy! However, my spare change will still go that way

3.00 Sandown Bangkok, ridiculously obvious I know but I can't ignore it. ( Might double up with Reggae Runner in the opener to add some spice to it! Ooh!)

5.05 Sandown Private Secretary just like the look of this one.

( My NOT606 rating is probably cold, so you may be advised to avoid everything I've just put up )

Tick tock tick tock tick tock ......

Good Luck all

 

For some reason the last race at Sandown today proves to be very informative for the season ahead. Both Gosden and Stoute favour it and both have had Classic winners and top handicappers run in the race.
I'm going for the Stoute one, Layaleena, today so I suppose the Gosden one will win.

 

3:45 Perth - Out For Justice

(A speculative bet for me because I am not absolutely sure this very stoutly-bred gelding, from the small Katy Price yard in Wales, has enough speed to win this on the sharpish Perth course? However, form over fences and hurdles is decent in the context of this race, and return to smaller obstacles probably favourable. SP possibly the best option betting-wise?)

 

Interesting you mention SP, I had an email from old Bill Hill yesterday saying that they were stopping BOG prior to the day of the races.... my question to the forum, are the days of generous offers from the bookmakers coming to an end with the malarkey around FOBT and the profit they will be losing because of that?

 

Calyx out of the Guineas after gallop this morning