Daily Racing Thread Friday 25th. September 2020

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KILBREW BOY 15/2 Uttoxeter 2:35
I think there is more to come from this horse this season. He finished last season with a nice run at Kempton and that race has worked out extremely well. Started out this season in a hurdle and I feel certain that it was simply a pipe opener en route to resuming progress over the larger obstacles. The yard are having a particularly good season at the track and are 3 wins from 4 runs, this one can keep the strike rate up.
 
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MIX OF CLOVER 14/1 Uttoxeter 4:20
The yard have been having a very good season thus far and I think that they might have done a good job with this one getting him fit while at the same time getting him back down to a winnable mark. Three runs since his win have all been over further but now drops back to 2 miles. They have also secured the services of one of the best conditionals around and it would be no surprise to see plenty of market support for this fellow.
 
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Alpinista and Kameko double.
Behind Love lto, can beat these today.
Kameko has been poorly campaigned and unlucky. Can bounce back at hq today i think.
 
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Small ew Patent/Treble at decent prices at Uttoxeter:

12:30 - Mandalayan 20/1
1:30 - Kendelu 9/1 (4 Places)
3:10 - Speredek 16/1

I also think Top Rank will see off Kameko and Benbatl but that's not a selection with any great confidence and the race is very competitive so i won't be betting on my hunch
 
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Almost went through the ITV card yesterday ... only La Barrosa stopped me from scoring 0/6 <laugh>
Only 4 races today, so that makes it easier!

Today's ITV selections for you to LAY are.....
Nmkt
150 Romola ew
225 Katara
300 Monday
335 Benbatl

Mssrs Dettori and Moore and due a disappointing day <laugh>
 
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Small ew on Mr Palmtree in the 1:30 Uttoxeter. Didn't run bad over fences last season when placed 3 times. Stables Anti Cool outrun his odds at Warwick on tuesday.
 
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With just five lining up for the Rockfel Stakes, it looks a race to avoid with surprise last time out winner Monday (beaten on debut on soft ground) taking on Prestige Stakes winner Isabella Giles (won on soft that day but beaten by Santosha before that).

Will Kameko make it to post for the Joel Stakes? On the ratings this should be a match with Benbatl and it is hard to fancy the three year old having to give weight to the veteran. It seems improbable that the lightly-raced Top Rank and Tilsit are going to find the significant improvement required in one race after winning Group 3 events last time; but who knows this year?

Alpinista followed home Love in the Yorkshire Oaks, where Franconia was virtually pulled up last, and ought to win the Princess Royal as none of her opponents have anything better than Listed form this year, although Antonia De Vega won the Prestige Stakes two years ago. If Alpinista fails to deliver that would be another nail in the Love form coffin with a view to next weekend.

Whilst the field for the Rosemary Stakes is numerically large more than half the field look to be chasing black type rather than the win. I gave up on Cloak Of Spirits months ago as she has not gone on from her Guineas second to Love. I am not sure why Ummalnar is so short in the betting as she has not run for over a year, was last seen winning a handicap easily and ran poorly on her only previous start no easy ground. Foorat was behind Cloak Of Spirits in a Deauville Group 3 last time while Romola is surely just chasing a place for Cheveley Park Stud after her total no-show at Sandown finishing last with Indie Angel just ahead. So this does look to be between unbeaten Bizzi Lizzi, daughter of the owner's good performer Izzi Top, stepping up from a novice event on the sand; and Sceptre Stakes third BOUNCE THE BLUES, who had Cloak Of Spirits behind that day and previously won a Listed race at Naas.
 
I took Stoute's Katara over Alpinista because I am dubious about the huge improved mark the latter filly was awarded for running behind Love last time. To me it looked potentially flattering.

Love has slaughtered her opposition this year but it looks increasingly like they were largely moderate foes. Katara is a head away from being unbeaten this season and is improving, so nothing to suggest that she won't come forward again. In theory she is 9 lbs behind Alpinista but her rating of 104 is 7 lbs higher than the mark Alpinista had before she raced behind Love and if that was a flattering run Katara is right in the mix and even if it is a reliable 113 now, there is still the chance the Stoute's daughter of Deep Impact can improve to close the gap.

2.25 Newmarket Katara 2/1

In the Rosemary Stakes I ended up giving Cloak Of Spirits one last chance. I was pretty confident with her last time over the 7F trip but she disappointed that day. Back to a mile and back to the scene of her Guineas 2nd place, the drop to Listed company made her worth one last shot and market vibes seem positive today. Bizzi Lizzi is unbeaten but comes here from a Class 5 Novice at Wolverhampton and her 84 OR needs a hefty improvement here.

1.50 Newmarket Cloak Of Spirits 7/2

It seemed a coin toss between the older Benbatl and the Guineas winner Kameko in the Joel. The 3YO has been poorly placed this season and I feel that the trainer was/is obsessed with trying to win the Derby and that this clouded his judgement. I thought that Kameko actually made a better fist of staying at Epsom than he did in the shorter Juddmonte, where chasing Ghaiyyath seemed to run the guts out of him. Dropped back to the mile again and has good runs at the trip this season but now at about 2/1 he looks too short after a hat-trick of 4ths. Benbatl won this last season but generally speaking he isn't really a miler. Top Rank is prominent in the market and has a good strike rate but his OR of 111 is 14 lbs behind Benbatl and I struggling to see where the Racing Post get their 1 lb behind Benbatl from on their ratings. They have Benbatl on 124 and Top Rank on 114, the pair meet at level weights, yet their adjusted ratings have Benbatl 129 and Top Rank 128. Not sure where they get that from but on OR at level weights the Tate horse has enough to find at his odds today.

This is a sort of last chance for Kameko to salvage a season that started in dream style winning the 2000 Guineas. He has been arsed around though and needs to regain the winning feeling. Benbatl dictated the pace last year and was an impressive winner, although the field was probably not as good on that occasion. There must be a chance that he can repeat the feat here though and at 11/4 he seemed better value.

3.35 Newmarket Benbatl 11/4

Three singles and a treble.
 
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stick said:
KILBREW BOY 15/2 Uttoxeter 2:35
I think there is more to come from this horse this season. He finished last season with a nice run at Kempton and that race has worked out extremely well. Started out this season in a hurdle and I feel certain that it was simply a pipe opener en route to resuming progress over the larger obstacles. The yard are having a particularly good season at the track and are 3 wins from 4 runs, this one can keep the strike rate up.
Click to expand...
One i picked out but i am concerned about Gentleman moore . I would Say Hiskett has had a big say in Phillips taking a chance bringing gent to the yard and it would be no suprise if they was not there or there about with this on the first run for them .i took 12s on gent e/w now into 8s and less
 
A cracking novices' chase at Uttoxeter (13.00) today and I thought it worth doing a preview:

1. Crooks Peak - Had trouble settling on chase debut and the cheekpieces are duly applied today. If they go a strong gallop on quick ground he could outrun his odds but the fact that Richard Johnson rides the yard's other contender speaks volumes.

3. Fusil Raffles - The 2019 Adonis winner followed up in style in Punchestown having missed the Triumph Hurdle through injury. His runs over hurdles in open company last season told the yard they don't have a Champion Hurdle contender so he goes novice chasing this season. Powerful connections will likely have mapped a route to the Arkle and they will be expecting him to make a successful chasing bow today.

4. Gumball - Honest as the day is long both on the flat and over hurdles, his front-running style has won him plenty of fans. He is fit from a spin on the flat last month and, if taking to the larger obstacles, could prove tough to pass from the front.

5. Quick Grabim - Grade 1 Hurdle winner for Willie Mullins who subsequently had his problems and moved to Fergal O'Brien in 2019 before finishing down the field in both the Christmas and Kingwell Hurdles. The ground will be in his favour on chase debut but this is hot company and he will need to jump really well to get involved at the business end.

6. Getariver - Dan Skelton's mare has a progressive CV and is another one who will prefer this sounder surface but fences would need to bring about significant improvement for her to be in the shake-up today.

Summary: If Fusil Raffles really is an Arkle horse he will need to stamp his authority on this field and I can see him sitting in behind Gumball and doing him for toe after the last. Quick Grabim can grab 3rd with a clear round.

1. Fusil Raffles
2. Gumball
3. Quick Grabim
 
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Fusil Raffles looking more like one for the Golden Miller Chase - badly outpaced at one stage before staying on to win comfortably, you'd think the Arkle might be too sharp for him. Good debut from Quick Grabim which was nice to see whilst Gumball needs to jump better if he is going to go that pace.
 
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Prescott pays the price for going with Ryan Tate there I think, allows first run to a filly who won a 7f G3 as a 2yo, on a filly who was intended to step up to 14.5f last time and is from a very stout family, stayed on strongly and would have went clear with another furlong to run. Front 2 miles clear of a couple of outclassed listed fillies in a solid time.

Sectionals showing that Alpinista was faster in the 9th, 11th and 12th furlongs, the race was won in the 10th furlong as Ryan Tate let the winner go. Would be surprised if he doesnt get jocked off for that.
 
OddDog said:
Fusil Raffles looking more like one for the Golden Miller Chase - badly outpaced at one stage before staying on to win comfortably, you'd think the Arkle might be too sharp for him. Good debut from Quick Grabim which was nice to see whilst Gumball needs to jump better if he is going to go that pace.
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what was nice about Quick Grabim is that he jumped well, hopefully they can find a few decent novice chases for him in the short term.
 
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Reebok said:
Almost went through the ITV card yesterday ... only La Barrosa stopped me from scoring 0/6 <laugh>
Only 4 races today, so that makes it easier!

Today's ITV selections for you to LAY are.....
Nmkt
150 Romola ew
225 Katara
300 Monday
335 Benbatl

Mssrs Dettori and Moore and due a disappointing day <laugh>
Click to expand...

BOOOOOOOO (no "M") ..... a clean sweep, all beaten - - I think it's a gift <laugh>
 
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Kameko gets his reward for being dropped to his proper trip today. Nice comeback after a season of being jerked around by the trainer. Benbatl could not establish the lead and dominate. Money came for him but he looked a shade below his best in third getting a pound from the younger horse. Ironically, I would probably have been on the winner if Benbatl had been 7/4 and not 11/4 earlier on in my theoretical coin toss. Regal Reality in second rated 116 is probably an indicator that Benbatl was below his best today and probably Kameko not at his peak either. I wasn't seeing it with Top Rank today and he was very disappointing for James Tate, who has had a pretty low key and unrewarding season in general. I expected him to have more success than he has had this year.

Katara was dismal. She ran no sort of race and was miles from her official mark. Antonia De Vega was well below her best on her comeback this year despite winning half a length that day. She had pieces of placed form last year and would have been a clear player if she had shown better on her comeback. Alpinista had every chance but just looked a bit dour in staying on. Perhaps the trainer should be thinking about stepping her up after that. It didn't look a strong Group 3 and the times in general have been decent today, with Kameko 0.59 Fast in the Joel.

Cloak Of Spirits saved the day. I thought she would win nicely at one stage but it ended up hard work and I think I will take the 4/1 return today and stick, rather than play her again. It looked a funny old race and I had a feeling she would pop up if I left it alone, hence the one last chance.

O'Brien's Monday was backed right in but looked like she would have needed to have started on Tuesday to win this Friday contest. Isabella Giles was a stunning winner on bad ground last time and was probably flattered by the margin of seven lengths that day. She showed here that she is still smart on decent ground and she should get a mile. This looked a below par Rockfel though and I would not be thinking about her for the Guineas.

Bit disappointed by Benbatl but can't complain with a small profit on the day, through the elusive Cloak Of Spirits.
 
stick said:
MIX OF CLOVER 14/1 Uttoxeter 4:20
The yard have been having a very good season thus far and I think that they might have done a good job with this one getting him fit while at the same time getting him back down to a winnable mark. Three runs since his win have all been over further but now drops back to 2 miles. They have also secured the services of one of the best conditionals around and it would be no surprise to see plenty of market support for this fellow.
Click to expand...

Very unlucky last flight faller :-( Hope the horse is ok after this
 
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