Daily Racing Thread Friday 25th. June 2021

[attivo]

Friday's Meetings

Yarmouth
Flat 8 Races 1:00-4:53p.m.
Cartmel
N/H 8 Races 1:15-5:20p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:10p.m.
Curragh(E)
Flat 7 Races 4:30-7:35p.m.
Newmarket(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:15-8:35p.m.
Newcastle(E)
A/W 7 Races 5:40-8:55p.m.
Chester(E)
Flat 6 Races 5:55-8:45p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Sporting Life
Racing Post

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Good Luck

 

[SaveTheHumans]

Memory Motel 22/1 - Curragh 4.30 - opening race is a maiden and this filly is nicely related. She cost plenty as a yearling. Thought she was interesting pitched into this, and with her sex allowance, she could play a part in the finish at a good each way price.

Hymn Book Two 9/1- Curragh 5.00 - fascinating runner for Jim Bolger here, bred in the purple for sure and this is a filly that could be best caught at an early stage in her career. She is a fair price to win first time up, this has potential to throw up some very nice horses for the future.

Shamad 12/1 - Curragh 6.00 - is coming to hand again now i feel, having ran a cracker when bumping into one of Henry DeBromhead's lto. The booking of Sam Ewing catches my eye for this apprentice Derby and whilst often hard to be confident in this type of event, I am struggling to see him out of things at the business end tomorrow.

Have a good one.

 

[gazboy]

Have to say we'll done to Jamie Osborne for highlighting the disgraceful tweets sent to his young daughter Saffie. What a horrible experience for a father to see his daughter going through. Time for the service providers to block these services if they won't police the trolls themselves.

 

[Pilgrim]

Curragh

17,30 Valhallas Dream 22/1 e/e six places with WH and Sky
18,00 Sea Ducor 9/4
19,45 Kojin 10/1 e/w four places bet365, others 9/1 five places, 17/2 WH and Sky six places

 

[Grendel]

Interesting 2YO races at the Curragh. The 4.30 is a 6F maiden with several possibilities. Aidan O'Brien sends out The Lute Player and he is a son of Caravaggio, so no surprises that the horse is named after a Caravaggio painting. He is a half brother to Sir Dragonet and Sir Lucan, both of whom need trips of 12F plus, so is 6F on the sharp side? The punters seem to think so, as he is on the drift.

Cowboy Justice is a Harrington colt by Lope De Vega and the Timeform blurb on ATR give him only two stars out of five on his chances today. He is Favourite though, so layers must be seeing something the Timeform man is not.

Beauty Inspire seems best backed and is heading to usurp Cowboy Justice as market leader. He is one of two Mehmas colts Ger Lyons has in the field, with the other being Sen Ding. Not overly expensive at 25 Grand, Beauty Inspire is very much the one for money at about 3/1, with Sen Ding unwanted at 28/1.

War Effort is another Mehmas colt, this time handled by Johnny Murtagh. He cost just 19,000 Euros as a foal but was sold for £190,000 as a yearling, meaningthat was a nice profit for somebody and a but of pressure for someone else to get a return on. Murtagh is in good form but is yet to saddle a 2YO winner this season according to Racing Post stats.

As Save The Humans said, Memory Motel is quite and expensive filly. By Kodiac, she is very weak in the betting today and that could well be because trainer Fozzy Stack has been very quiet and is on a 37 runner losing streak spanning 34 days. That has to be a concern for me.

I decided to go with Ultramarine in the hope that he can build on a promising first effort. The son of Zoffany was 4th and not beaten too far in a length and a quarter behind the winner. I felt he might have finished second with a little further to run and he showed some greenness that day before getting the hang of it in the closing stages. I feel any progress might make him tough to beat today but there is always the chance that one of the newcomers is very smart. At odds of 9/2 though I think there is reason to believe he can win at a fair price.

4.30 Curragh Ultramarine 9/2

 

[Grendel]

The 5.00 race at the Curragh looks like a match based on the market. Jessica Harrington's Discoveries and Aidan O'Brien's Tuesday. Both fillies are available at 2/1 and next best is Jim Bolger's Hymn Book Two at a solid 7/1.

Tuesday is a full sister to Minding, who was a Guineas/Oaks double for me at odds of 8/1 in her 3YO season. That year I had backed Alice Springs for the 1000 Guineas and when it became clear Minding was the one, it was too late to back her as a single bet for the Guineas. Ryan Moore did his best to get Minding beaten in the Oaks but the filly's class saved his blushes and the double was landed.

Can Tuesday follow in Minding's footsteps? Generally speaking lightning doesn't strike twice with breeding pairings and regarding today, it might be worth thinking that loads of Galileo youngsters need their first run quite badly and Minding herself was only second on her debut.

Hymn Book Two is well bred and Jim Bolger is having his best season for a few years. The stable have hit quite a quiet spell this past fortnight though. 1/23 has left them on 4% as a strike rate and horses running to form RTF on the Racing Post site sits at 35%. That is enough to disuade me from backing Hymn Book Two.

Kevin Prendergast is 68 days since his last winner, so that rules out Alaroos for me.

Despite not being in the best of form, it is Jessica Harrington's Discoveries who appeals to me. 4th on her debut, she did all her good work late in the race. Ger Lyons' winner Juncture looked impressive and very useful that day but I feel Discoveries will be unlucky to meet one as talented today. A sister to Alpha Centauri, you would think improvement was guaranteed and I'll be disappointed if she cannot put a performance of 90+ on the board today and that might be enough to win it.

Not big odds but I thought I would put Discoveries in a double with a runner at Newmarket.

Sacred Jewel is by Dubawi out of Priceless. The dam won the Temple Stakes for Clive Cox and this is her first foal. Charlie Appleby seems to reel off these Dubawi 2YO winners on debut and the one concern I had was blinkers and a tongue tie fitted for her debut tonight. It's always a guessing game but I was fascinated to see how Sacred Jewel goes in this evening's 6F contest.

5.00 Curragh Discoveries 2/1
5.45 Newmarket Sacred Jewel 9/4

Two singles and a double, will break even if one wins.

 

[stick]

Interesting 2YO races at the Curragh. The 4.30 is a 6F maiden with several possibilities. Aidan O'Brien sends out The Lute Player and he is a son of Caravaggio, so no surprises that the horse is named after a Caravaggio painting. He is a half brother to Sir Dragonet and Sir Lucan, both of whom need trips of 12F plus, so is 6F on the sharp side? The punters seem to think so, as he is on the drift.

Cowboy Justice is a Harrington colt by Lope De Vega and the Timeform blurb on ATR give him only two stars out of five on his chances today. He is Favourite though, so layers must be seeing something the Timeform man is not.

Beauty Inspire seems best backed and is heading to usurp Cowboy Justice as market leader. He is one of two Mehmas colts Ger Lyons has in the field, with the other being Sen Ding. Not overly expensive at 25 Grand, Beauty Inspire is very much the one for money at about 3/1, with Sen Ding unwanted at 28/1.

War Effort is another Mehmas colt, this time handled by Johnny Murtagh. He cost just 19,000 Euros as a foal but was sold for £190,000 as a yearling, meaningthat was a nice profit for somebody and a but of pressure for someone else to get a return on. Murtagh is in good form but is yet to saddle a 2YO winner this season according to Racing Post stats.

As Save The Humans said, Memory Motel is quite and expensive filly. By Kodiac, she is very weak in the betting today and that could well be because trainer Fozzy Stack has been very quiet and is on a 37 runner losing streak spanning 34 days. That has to be a concern for me.

I decided to go with Ultramarine in the hope that he can build on a promising first effort. The son of Zoffany was 4th and not beaten too far in a length and a quarter behind the winner. I felt he might have finished second with a little further to run and he showed some greenness that day before getting the hang of it in the closing stages. I feel any progress might make him tough to beat today but there is always the chance that one of the newcomers is very smart. At odds of 9/2 though I think there is reason to believe he can win at a fair price.

4.30 Curragh Ultramarine 9/2

Is it a negative that you haven’t mentioned the one I like? VERBAL SPARRING ran into one of the seasons top juveniles on debut and whilst it wasn’t a sparkling debut it certainly looked like there was scope for improvement from this Bolger inmate.

 

[Grendel]

I thought Ultramarine was in the ideal place to strike but when asked to go and win it, there was nothing there. He weakened in the end and I would suggest he hasn't even matched his first run today, far less come on from it.

The betting suggested Beauty Inspire was going to win it and he fairly routed his field. By no means the first decent looking youngster for Ger Lyons this season, the key to the trainer becoming a bigger force will be in harnessing these horses to progress and go on to land Group races.

Cowboy Justice was runner up and has probably bumped into an above average one today. The Lute Player was easy to back and you might feel he will need more time and further given his relatives.

Disappointed with Ultramarine, he looked sure to improve but I reckon he's run in the 70's today at best.

 

[Grendel]

Is it a negative that you haven’t mentioned the one I like? VERBAL SPARRING ran into one of the seasons top juveniles on debut and whilst it wasn’t a sparkling debut it certainly looked like there was scope for improvement from this Bolger inmate.

I didn't see this until just now. What put me off Verbal Sparring was the fact that he was beaten 10 lengths on debut and was only 6th. Point Lonsdale is already ante-post favourite for everything bar the Eurovision Song Contest next season but he was more than 5 lengths clear of his field on debut. Usually these wide margin wins don't work out great and I was also put off by the fact that Bolger's colt was dropping back to 6F from 7F today.

In the end, both our fancies were out of the money but The Lute Player was something else. Tipped up with five stars on the Timeform preview on ATR, he was tailed off in last place, fourteen lengths behind his nearest rival and looking like bumpers might be his ultimate goal. The one ahead of him was Johnny Murtagh's War Effort, who cost £190,000 but looked like his war effort was a Dunkirk job. Plenty duds in this game for sure.

 

[rainermariarilke]

The early support for Antagonize (8.55 Newcastle) hasn't really developed, but it's still uniformly blue across the Oddschecker board as I post, and there are some reasons for having a close look at it.
i) if he's near his best, a mark of 58 would certainly give him a good chance of beating all of these.
ii) a friend with a tiny share in a Bryan Smart horse mentioned to me some time ago that the stable thought they'd find a race for him 'probably on tapeta somewhen in the summer'.
iii) I remember the much-missed MWildcats suggesting many years ago that if Graham Lee hung about for a last-race evening ride in a two-bob handicap, it was generally worth paying attention. (If you're out there, Cats, best wishes and keep safe). It's not exactly a foolproof system, but it did pay off earlier this month with James Watt at Ripon.

None of the above are particularly compelling reasons for a bet, but you wouldn't expect this to need a lot of winning, and 4-1 seems a realistic price. I've long given up trying to evaluate the draw on the straight course at Newcastle, but Antagonize should give you a run for your money.

 

[Grendel]

Not good for the nerves that but Discoveries just repelled newcomer Tuesday to score. The Harrington filly looked likely to win by a bit further but was pestered all the way to the line as Tuesday kept on really well. Most people will probably take the view that the runner up will reverse the form next time and it's hard to argue with the logic but Discoveries still looks a work in progress and I would expect her to come on again next time. Two useful looking fillies and others in behind also made promising starts.

Let's see if Sacred Jewel can land the double now.

 

[Grendel]

Decent early speed from Sacred Jewel but she never picked up at all and Zain Claudette was the one to make a good debut.

With Discoveries winning, it was a free bet on Sacred Jewel and just as well. Maybe they will try her at 5F, next time but this was a disappointing debut to be honest.

Zain Claudette had been runner up by just a neck last time probably came on a bit from that judged by her win here. The second and third had already run and looked nothing special, while Red Joan was pretty disappointing for Gosden tonight.

 

[SaveTheHumans]

Memory Motel 22/1 - Curragh 4.30 - opening race is a maiden and this filly is nicely related. She cost plenty as a yearling. Thought she was interesting pitched into this, and with her sex allowance, she could play a part in the finish at a good each way price.

Hymn Book Two 9/1- Curragh 5.00 - fascinating runner for Jim Bolger here, bred in the purple for sure and this is a filly that could be best caught at an early stage in her career. She is a fair price to win first time up, this has potential to throw up some very nice horses for the future.

Shamad 12/1 - Curragh 6.00 - is coming to hand again now i feel, having ran a cracker when bumping into one of Henry DeBromhead's lto. The booking of Sam Ewing catches my eye for this apprentice Derby and whilst often hard to be confident in this type of event, I am struggling to see him out of things at the business end tomorrow.

Have a good one.

Well, that was absolutely atrocious on all accounts. Best just put this one down to experience and move one.

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

Thats Zeyaadah and Willow won decent races since finishing tailed off in the Oaks. I said a while ago that the race dropping back after the Oaks would be the time to catch Santa Barbara, shes 5/2 from 7/2 for the Pretty Polly on Sunday, her Classic backers will likely get their money back but not much more at those odds.

Divinely was only beaten a couple of lengths in the Ribblesdale after being beaten 18L by Snowfall, its hard to see where this filly has come from on that 2yo season but I dont think there is a horse in training that will beat her at 10 or 12f right now, Love included.

The thing that should worry all of us betting on the game is that the stable didnt even know about Snowfall, they thought Santa Barbara was a class above all their fillies while they had probably the best horse in Europe right under their noses.

With Love ground dependant and Snowfall proven on soft and good ground, and with the 3yo allowance, she is quite clearly the better bet for the Arc with both fillies at 11/2, id imagine Snowfalls whole preparation is now being aimed at that race.