Daily Racing Thread Friday 24th. April 2015

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MullinsbosseditIjstlostit said:
Aidan Obrien has just stubbed out the cigar :biggrin:
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Lol Boris but the cigar was in relation to the 2000G and the race you're referring to is the Derby <ok>

I'm not even a fan of O'Brien just to clarify either, so rest assured even if he has a 1,2 in the Derby you'll never be named after him! Willie's your daddy and don't forget it! :)
 
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I thought that last race would be the best on the card and perhaps it turned out to be. Gosden's horses are 7lb forward at the moment, but 12 lengths are a lot to make up. Some of the other horses ran funny races and the going got in the way, but Jack Hobbs must be a pretty good animal. One of the few times you see a horse from the Connaught female line (in fact a very Jim Joel bottom half 2 generations back).
 
Given what a monster of a horse Jack Hobbs is (and I wasn't joking about him jumping a fence - he looks like a bloody Arkle horse to me) would there be a concern about him handling the undulations at Epsom?
 
I think there is a concern with every horse handling the undulations of Epsom, no matter what size they are.

He is a very big horse that's for sure, though I see that as more of a positive. I think having a big powerful looking frame is what you look for in a young horse, I know I'd certainly be drawn to him if looking at a group of un raced maidens. Obviously the size may or may not be an issue at Epsom, but I think the positives of being that size outweigh the negatives.

I agree about him being a chaser aswell, though I doubt though you'll ever get to see that, as he looks set to be a star on the flat:biggrin:
 
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King Shergar said:
You wouldn't call a man with no bollocks a proper man, would you? :biggrin:
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True lol But I wouldn't call a man who only works for a year or two before retiring a 'proper man' either! A flash in the pan maybe ;)

Shergy, I'm no expert, but this horse won a handicap off 85 FFS, to proclaim it's set to be a star after that is a tad OTT! Wait to they deliver in a Grade 1 not a dirt handicap in April on a dodgy ground before saying that! And having looked at the Derby AP market, its price is a joke, shame on anyway backing it now. If you'd been on before yesterday when I heard it was 50s, fair play to you in that case but its a right mug bet now :)
 
I agree about the not going OTT, as I said, what it done off 85 you can only rate him around 110-114 which is near enough Group 2 level, considering it was only his second start I think its safe to say he is at least a Group 2 horse and while there is a decent chance he could be Group 1, he still has to prove it. There is also the possibility of the ground maybe exaggerating things but im not sure I would buy that.

As for the price, I dont think its that much of a joke, I think 16s was too big and he is the right price now. As for anyone who got the 50s as beefy says, fair doos, brave man to back a Wolves maiden winner for the Derby. The horse was not on my radar simply because the track he started at, anyone who seen his maiden at the time would have blow torched his name into their leg or something which leads me to another thing, his name doesnt exactly scream Derby winner, it seems more in keeping with "out every friday" at the track he made his debut. But names can be overcome, it was only last year we had a good horse named Australia, think they forgot the Sizing.

If we want to talk about joke prices in that market look no further than Zawraq and JFK, the price of both of those tells you its a thin market at this stage and thats why I think Jack Hobbs deserves to be up there just now. In winning a handicap off 85 on his second start, he has achieved a level not far off the best Derby 2yos of last season, and he done it eased down despite Gosden thinking he might get found out by greeness. Shergar thinks he could have beaten Western Hymn off levels, I doubt that, but I think he wouldnt have been too far away with the 3yo allowance and that is a fair level considering the stage he is at, with normal improvement he is not far off a serious Derby contender, also worth considering none of the others in the market have produced a wow performance between them, handicap or no handicap.

The trials will tell us more and im hoping Obriens Giovanni Canaletto can emerge as a player, I think he has a lot of potential.
 
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Australia he was the 'joke price' at this stage last year wasn't he?! Despite the fact everyone, especially the bookies knew he was a ****ing certainty :)
 
beeforsalmon said:
True lol But I wouldn't call a man who only works for a year or two before retiring a 'proper man' either! A flash in the pan maybe

Shergy, I'm no expert, but this horse won a handicap off 85 FFS, to proclaim it's set to be a star after that is a tad OTT! Wait to they deliver in a Grade 1 not a dirt handicap in April on a dodgy ground before saying that! And having looked at the Derby AP market, its price is a joke, shame on anyway backing it now. If you'd been on before yesterday when I heard it was 50s, fair play to you in that case but its a right mug bet now
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It was a 3 year old handicap he won though, so the marks are far from accurate as most horses are improving from run to run. It's not like he beat a load of exposed handicappers off that mark.

As far as the ground being dodgy, what are you talking about? it was genuine good ground and the times support that. Don't read to much into the likes of Charlie Hills and his sour grapes because his hot pot got turned over. Nobody else moaned about the ground.

We will see if it's a right mugs bet though I am very happy with my 16/1 bet. Many people laughed at me when I said Sprinter Sacre was a super star and was a certainty for the Arkle when he was 7/1, so I'm quite happy to back my own judgement. Assuming Jack Hobbs stays fit and healthy il be lumping on him heavily, as he is a horse of serious ability, and I am convinced he will win G1 races. At the moment he is the standout Derby horse and should be favourite, particularly when nothing else has laid down a marker.

Just watch the way he explodes when Frankie presses the button, on only his 2nd start, he will take some stopping in the Derby. It will be interesting to see what else comes forward but il be suprised if anything else can impress me as much as he has.

MullinsbosseditIjstlostit said:
I agree about the not going OTT, as I said, what it done off 85 you can only rate him around 110-114 which is near enough Group 2 level, considering it was only his second start I think its safe to say he is at least a Group 2 horse and while there is a decent chance he could be Group 1, he still has to prove it. There is also the possibility of the ground maybe exaggerating things but im not sure I would buy that.

As for the price, I dont think its that much of a joke, I think 16s was too big and he is the right price now. As for anyone who got the 50s as beefy says, fair doos, brave man to back a Wolves maiden winner for the Derby. The horse was not on my radar simply because the track he started at, anyone who seen his maiden at the time would have blow torched his name into their leg or something which leads me to another thing, his name doesnt exactly scream Derby winner, it seems more in keeping with "out every friday" at the track he made his debut. But names can be overcome, it was only last year we had a good horse named Australia, think they forgot the Sizing.

If we want to talk about joke prices in that market look no further than Zawraq and JFK, the price of both of those tells you its a thin market at this stage and thats why I think Jack Hobbs deserves to be up there just now. In winning a handicap off 85 on his second start, he has achieved a level not far off the best Derby 2yos of last season, and he done it eased down despite Gosden thinking he might get found out by greeness. Shergar thinks he could have beaten Western Hymn off levels, I doubt that, but I think he wouldnt have been too far away with the 3yo allowance and that is a fair level considering the stage he is at, with normal improvement he is not far off a serious Derby contender, also worth considering none of the others in the market have produced a wow performance between them, handicap or no handicap.

The trials will tell us more and im hoping Obriens Giovanni Canaletto can emerge as a player, I think he has a lot of potential.
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I didn't see his run at Wolves until I was watching the video form for the Sandown race, and it was incredibly impressive. Lost loads of ground like 8 lengths out of the gate and then circled round the field travelling like 6 horses wide, and then quickened away easily from them running very green in the straight.

I think the reason he started his career at Wolves was because that was the only meeting on in December, and Gosden didn't want to rush him to early in his 2yo career. He's a huge dangly horse so running him before he's filled out his frame abit would have been silly.

As far as his name not being that of a class horse, he's named after the greatest cricketer of all time. That's a pretty big name to give a horse. I think they must have thought of him highly to give him that name as a youngster :biggrin:
 
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