i wouldn't normally be thinking of a bet at Vichy and I don't know much about the track but I thought there might be some value in taking on the Favourite Zarkallani in the 1.24 race.
Zarkallani is a beautifully bred son of Invincible Spirit and Arc heroine Zarkava, He held all the fancy entries that his pedigree would suggest was appropriate but it took him three goes to get off the mark and he was then on a fool's errand running in the French Derby with his best RPR of 90 for finally getting off the mark.
I still cannot fathom how Zarkallani went off 11/2 for the French Derby. Sottsass won the race with a RPR of 121, meaning that Zarkallani would have needed to improve by 32 lbs to have won the race. Having progressed 79, 84, 90 on his first three starts he was hardly looking ripe for a jump to 122 and it is hard to comprehend how winners Sottsass was 13/1 in the betting coming in rated 20 lbs ahead of Zarkallani. In the end Zarkallani finished 13th of the 15 runners beaten 25 lengths. He still went off favourite when dropped to Listed company next time but was 8th of 8, albeit only beaten a bit over 3 lengths.
Zarkallani made a winning return this year in a conditions race on the Polytrack at Chantilly. He won well that day by 3 lengths and recorded a new personal best RPR of 99. If he takes a further step forward it could make him hard to beat here but he's a fairly clear favourite at about 2/1 and there are some concerns for me. The worry is that they have come to Vichy for another conditions race and you might have expected something more ambitious to try to progress the horses career forward. a bigger concern may be that they have gelded the horse and that seems a bit drastic unless there was a medical issue that required it.
This is not a strong race but I have a nagging feeling about seeing Zarkallani joining Willie Mullins in the autumn for a career over obstacles. For these reasons I am opposing him.
I have always liked Francis Graffard and am drawn to his contender here. The name Tantpispoureux hardly rolls off the tongue but I feel he has a good chance in this race. He had two maiden starts last season before entering Handicaps and then landed two of those. He showed improved form in the second win but, as with Zarkallani, he was then gelded. The difference with Tantpispoureux is that they then upped him in class to Listed races after gelding him and he recorded better RPR's despite not winning. His 104 Racing Post figure for one of those runs is higher than Zarkallani's best so far and he also gets 7 lbs from the favourite today. Tantpispoureux does need to be forgiven a poor run when favourite on his final race of the season but he may well improve a little this season and with the stable batting at 29% over the past 14 days he seemed a better bit of value at 6/1, given that the Fav was a third of the price.
1.24 Tantpispoureux 6/1
