An interesting Gimcrack today and very open I feel. Perhaps not the highest quality because you can pick holes in several of the races where today's participants bring their form from.
I was on Yazaman last time but he never travelled as well as you would have expected him to. In the end Supremacy went away at the front and although Yazaman did keep on, the was four lengths behind at the finish. Top on official ratings here but his three seconds after a winning start indicate to me that others are ripe for passing him now. Tactical is favourite for the Prix Morny and he has ties with some of the field today. My issue is that the July Stakes at Newmarket is working out terribly and the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot has seen some winners but only Tactical himself, two Novice winners and a Maiden winner. To be frank it looks quite weak form in both races.
Mohawk King and Minzaal met on their debuts and the Hannon horse won, with Burrows' colt only 4th that day. The latter horse has since won well and some pundits feel he will reverse the form now, with the betting more than indicating as much with Minzaal 5/2 and Mohawk King 8/1. Win or lose I must be against Minzaal at the odds today because he is priced as if he has already demonstrated superior form to the rest of the field and that is not yet the case. Minzaal was impressive last time but he was 1/2 Fav for a Class 5 Novice race and his official rating of 92 is a stone lower that Yazaman, so while he is unexposed, he is facing a very different challenge today.
I saw Simon Rowlands on ATR putting up Mystery Smiles here and the Balding horse may well build on his Chester win last time but the 87 rated Fools Rush In was 16th of 19 runners in the sales race yesterday, beaten more than 17 lengths and he was only a length and a half behind Minzaal previously. Like Minzaal, Mystery Smile is rated 92 on OR and needs quite a big jump forward. Watching him again at Chester I didn't quite see enough to buy into it.
Lauded has some encouraging form but like Yazaman he was no match for Supremacy at Goodwood. After being initially impressed by Supremacy, I am now worried that he perhaps didn't beat as much as first thought.
I gave the nod to Ubettabelieveit. The Tinkler horse was 4th on debut but stormed to success on his second start. He then stepped up to Listed company and won with a fair bit in hand. The form of that race doesn't look good in retrospect but the runner up ran in Group 3 and Group 2 company next time and one of the others also stepped up to Group 3. More importantly it was the ease with which Ubettabelieveit travelled throughout that Listed win that impressed me and he looked as if he was ready for the step up to 6F now. Improving and untried at this trip the nature of the York course should suit and his official rating of 103 is a buffer on some of the others who are perhaps more fancied. At 7/1 I felt he was the value option here.
Devilwala takes a huge step up in class but interesting that Archie Watson sends him here. 1/1 thus far, he may run well at 16/1 EW 4 places.
2.45 York Ubettabelieveit 7/1
