Friday 1st March Daily Thread

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DreverSpur

DreverSpur

Well-Known Member
Oct 2, 2011
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Worcestershire
330 Newbury - Savant Bleu 7/1

One bet for me today and this one stands out a mile for me. Last ran 81 days ago beating Arbeo 4 1/2 lengths over 3m in a beginners chase. Arbeo then went on to frank the form by beating dual subsequent winner and Festival bound Emperor's Choice. Arbeo then followed up again in a grade 3 beginners chase. Although Savant Bleu now has a career high mark to defy I don't think this will be enough to stop him. I also believe that the short break and slight drop in trip will aid him so he is a confident selection for me.

Round of golf for me then a few beers with my boys. Happy Friday and good luck with your selections!!
 
Lots of good formlines in that race even among the outsiders. SHUILL ROYALE beaten a sh hd by Emperors Choice and a while back (though only four runs ago) RISK beat Williams Wishes!
 
Heck of a race that 3.30. Risk is a Fascinating (capital F) runner on Novice Hurdle form. Representing Critic is another with some ridiculous form (look at his only chase start) and what about Shuil Royale who was massively outrunning his mark when tipping up at Ascot earlier in the season. Crazy race to get involved in my honest opinion but good luck to you.
 
I know it's a tough race but I find I am able to decipher the form better in the better races. If that makes sense?! Give me a seller or a claimer and I'm lost lol!!

Let me elaborate a little. The other horses mentioned in this race for me have something to prove...

Shuil Royale was running well until tipping up but seems to have been a bit of a monkey since then and was put in his place last time by Arbeo who Savant Bleu beat convincingly on his last run.

Representingceltic was hopelessly outclassed in his only chase start as he went off at 100/1 although a bunch of winners have since come out of that race and he has mopped up 3 'Jumpers Bumpers' since then. He still has it to prove over fences.

The same can be said of Risk who has useful novice hurdle form but has to prove he is as useful over the larger obstacles.

Having considered all of that I believe Savant Bleu has the most solid profile and the form in the book to hold a strong chance in a race of this nature. He fits the profile of horses I tend to back and has less to prove than the others in my opinion.

I consider Sir Frank to be the main danger after his eyecatching run last time out and I'm very interested to see how Countess Comet performs upped in trip after being outpaced then staying on over 2m 2f.
 
Just one for me tomorrow - Reginaldinho 4.35 Newbury 5/1

The Venetia Williams stable are absolutely flying right now and i think this one is another with a massive chance. Won under Liam Treadwell over this trip twice in January and then ran what seemed at the time to be a slightly disappointing fourth last time however i dont think the step up in trip suited (didnt seem to stay) and the second has since gone on to win off a mark of 120 so that form doesnt look so bad especially when the trip wasnt ideal. He is one that likes to sit off the pace and with a fair few horses in the race tomorrow that like to go off in front i can see this being set up for a finisher which Reginaldinho certainly is. Off a mark of 118, back down to 2m4f, with Liam Treadwell booked and with the Venetia Williams stable on fire i think he will take a hell of a lot of beating here
 
The more I look at the 3.30 Newbury the more open I think it is. The first 5 home could easily win on their next starts. Mine will be a big price though so I'll still be backing it.
 
Brough Tiger said:
Just one for me tomorrow - Reginaldinho 4.35 Newbury 5/1

The Venetia Williams stable are absolutely flying right now and i think this one is another with a massive chance. Won under Liam Treadwell over this trip twice in January and then ran what seemed at the time to be a slightly disappointing fourth last time however i dont think the step up in trip suited (didnt seem to stay) and the second has since gone on to win off a mark of 120 so that form doesnt look so bad especially when the trip wasnt ideal. He is one that likes to sit off the pace and with a fair few horses in the race tomorrow that like to go off in front i can see this being set up for a finisher which Reginaldinho certainly is. Off a mark of 118, back down to 2m4f, with Liam Treadwell booked and with the Venetia Williams stable on fire i think he will take a hell of a lot of beating here
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Roll The Dice 6/1 for me in this. Have convinced myself to do a small eway double with Savant Bleu 7/1.
 
I don't really agree with your reasoning there Drever but that is the beauty of this sport. Hope you manage to bash the bookies!!
 
GGW said:
I don't really agree with your reasoning there Drever but that is the beauty of this sport. Hope you manage to bash the bookies!!
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Exactly GGW!! This is what I love about the sport, so many interpretations of form. I especially live for the banter of that magical week in March when I'm eating a cooked brekky and sinking my first pint at 830am with my boys, Racing Posts spread out all over the place and fierce banter flying around over who will win what!! It is Christmas and birthday combined!! Nothing touches NH racing in my opinion!!
 
Civil Unrest 3:50 Doncaster 5/1

Was looking forward to seeing this horse back on good ground and tackling a more adequate trip, i hope he takes his chance tomorrow as he has a couple of other entries i wouldn't be as keen to get involved with him on. Was perhaps hoping for a better price but i think it's probably fair given some off the opposition are as high as they would like in the weights. He's been dropped 5lbs from his last few runs and would appear to have a cracking chance to me.
 
Hopefully the 5.40 at Wolverhampton will remain an 8 runner affair. My recommend play in that case will be a substantial EW investment on THERE'S NO RULES currently 14/1 BOG BET 365.
 
Happy St David's Day Boyo's.

Another anniversary of the famous St David's Day Massacre at Port Talbot in the Home International darts many moons ago.

Good luck with BPG Danbo.

Off for a perusal of the old form book/video archive with some scrambled free rangers on Hovis granary.

A Friday Brunch in effect if it's any of your business.
 
17:30 Doncaster - Phase Shift

(Favourite, but looks something to bet on at current 7/4 still generally available. Best time figures, good going, only negative just 8-days since last run. Not particularly keen on short gaps between runs in NH racing. Still, will take the plunge).

GL today one and all! <ok>
 
Bostonbob said:
How confident are they though Heis. Competitive affair that.
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Very Confident mate,,,,, but he can be a bit of a bugger at the track,, he's been working all over Waltz Darling and he had an easy ride lto, eased down to 9th,, James reported that he could have passed 4 or 5 had the ground been right,,,it is right today,, and by the looks of the price the money is down

Fingers crossed

Be Lucky

Stay Frosty
 
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