1.30 Cheltenham
Footpad 9/1
The Triumph is not a race that I'm too fond of and Footpad is a token selection for the all conquering Willie Mullins' yard. Despite being unfancied in comparison to his stablemates on his last start, he defied market weakness to beat two fellow Mullins inmates comprehensively in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown and I thought there was no fluke about that performance given they went a good clip. It also is quite noteworthy to me that Mullins thought his representative in the Fred Winter Voix Du Reve wouldn't have a chance off a mark of 139 (would have gone very close had he not fallen at the last) and I think that bodes well for the yard's juveniles in this race. With Ruby Walsh on top, I've had a small each way at 10/1 but it's not a contest I'll ever be confident in.
2.10 Cheltenham
Blue Hell 10/1
For a number of months, I have been very confident about Blue Hell for the County Hurdle and despite the British handicapper giving him an extra 5lb and despite being 22lb above his last win I think he's still quite a bit ahead of the handicapper. Having never quite put it all together for previous trainer Tony Mullins, new trainer Alan Fleming seems to have found the key to this 6 year old as he was imperious on his stable debut when comfortably winning a race that has worked out ridiculously well. The runner up Diamond King has won both races since including the Coral Cup on Wednesday off a 17lb higher mark, the 4th home Keppols Queen won a Grade 3 and was unlucky not to finish closer than 6th behind Vroum Vroum Mag on Tuesday, the 5th home Henry Higgins (reopposes here on 6lb better terms) absolutely slaughtered an incredibly competitive Leopardstown after that whilst the 6th won next time too. On the face of it, racing her off 22lb higher mark looks huge but I do feel that this 6 year old is a little bit better than a handicapper and he's been primed for this since. I think good ground will bring out further improvement and I'm quietly confident Blue Hell can win this valuable contest.
2.50 Cheltenham
Barters Hill 9/2
Coming into Cheltenham, I thought defeat was out of the question for this unbeaten 6 year old and although it's slightly disconcerting that he was apparently a bit soar after working on Wednesday I'm confident he'll be 100% fit and, if he is, I'm struggling to see him getting beaten. Repelling all comers in his 7 starts to date, this gritty and incredibly talented front runner just cannot be passed thus far and I personally don't think we have reached the bottom with him yet. Top Class in Bumpers and the same over hurdles, this Grade 1 winning Novice has beaten a number of good horses along the way and I have no doubt about his class. With the ground holding no concerns, it is a slight concern that Ben Pauling's charge will be taken on in a big way up front but I still think he's going to prove too strong and resolute for his rivals and 9/2 is a much bigger price than I was expecting.
3.30 Cheltenham
Djakadam 3/1
Although coming here off a fall in jumping's showpiece event is not ideal, I rate last years Gold Cup winner Coneygree incredibly highly and I fancy last years runner up Djakadam to go one better and land the Festival's main attraction and given the dominant Willie Mullins his first success in the race. In what looks a terrific and wide open event, my initial fancy Vautour's defection and subsequent demolition of the RSA must say a lot about how Djakadam is working at home and his runner up spot in this last year is certainly the strongest form on paper to my eyes. I see the next three in the market as legitimate dangers (I believe 4/1 will be briefly available on Djakadam tomorrow) to the selection but I'm confident that, if Djakadam replicates his performance in this last year, he will come home in front and give the best trainer around his first win in the contest.
4.10 Cheltenham
Paint The Clouds 13/2
Warren Greatrex's 11 year old Paint The Clouds was my strongest bet of the festival last year until the rain came and scuppered his chances and I was genuinely shocked he was able to finish 3rd in this contest on soft underfoot conditions he absolutely hates. Finally, he gets his quick ground conditions which he oh so badly needs and I can see him coming out on top of this with doubts about the market leader this year. Last years winner On The Fringe was sensational last year as he took the Hunter Chase showpieces at the three major festivals last year but that is a seriously intensive schedule and I certainly have doubts if he has sufficiently recovered this year. He was very disappointing on his reappearance when a well beaten 7th (2nd in the corresponding race last season) and, although he'll be very tough to beat if back to his best, Paint The Clouds is one of the most ground dependent horses in training and I'm confident he can put up a bold show under top amateur rider Sam Waley-Cohen
4.50 Cheltenham
Children's List 12/1
Trainer Willie Mullins has taken this contest for the last 2 years and I think his 6 year old Children's List represents the best chance of his three ponged assault. Appreciably better on good ground, Children's List has been progressing well on ground that doesn't suit him having run a good 4th in a strong race and a fine 2nd last time out and I think that he has a lot more to offer returned to a sound surface. The excellent David Mullins gets on board and I think, with good ground key to this horse, we could see even more improvement which should hopefully see him land this for the yard for the 3rd successive year.
5.30 Cheltenham
Next Sensation 10/1 & Velvet Maker 12/1
Despite slight concern about him having needed another breathing operation, Next Sensation looks to have been plotted up for this race all season and off just a 1lb higher mark I can see him taking a lot of beating as he looks to land this contest for the 2nd time in a row. A blazing front runner, Next Sensation was actually 4th in this contest 2 years ago when he probably went off a little too quick under Richard Johnson as he was nabbed close home and having shown very little (similar to this year) last season he came alive with a thrilling victory last year under a great Tom Scudamore ride. His poor form this season isn't of concern given what he did last year and I think the stable have done a great drop getting him dropped 7lb in 4 runs this year. Clearly prepared for this race, if Tom Scu can get his fractions right in front I think he'll prove very hard to catch.
Alan Fleming's Velvet Maker is another horse who is very interesting in my eyes and a mark of 146 may underestimate him. A decent hurdler for Tony Martin, Velvet Maker made his stable and chasing debut at Naas back in November when a very impressive winner when he beat Dysios (rated 131) very easily. It now gets very hard to weigh up his two latest runs as he ran behind the sensational Douvan on both occasions and it seems that he was just out to get some good experience in the face of an impossible task. It is guess work as to see how good he really is but I do think that he'll handle the conditions well and I believe he is the sort of horse who will relish a race run at a frantic pace which is guaranteed here. He could be well in or might be harshly judged but he is very unexposed and worth an each way play at 12/1 in my eyes.
