A better looking day for some bets than yesterday's minefield.
To kick things off I am taking on Flotus in the opener. The Crisford filly made a striking debut and I suggested at the time that Royal Ascot would probably be her next port of call but didn't anticipate her being quite so short an ante-post favourite for the Albany.
Looking at Flotus's last race the immediate concern is that it was made on soft ground at Goodwood. Unless the rain falls that leaves her a very different surface to work on here. The subsequent form is also worrying me. Runner-up Prism was thumped more than thirteen lengths when last next time out, although she did rear in the stalls that day. The 5th home was awful next time and although the 4th was runner up is a modest race at Lingfield next time, she was hampered and could not get a clear run the day she ran behind Flotus.
One to have a recent form boost is Elliptic. Donnacha's daughter of Caravaggio was slowly away on debut but finished strongly to come through and win nicely. Off her feed and a non runner in May entry, it would be a month later before she ran again and she was beaten by Dr Zempf when favourite at the Curragh. However, the filly she beat on debut was Quick Suzy, who lived up to her name in landing the Queen Mary. If Elliptic had not run again after her debut I could have seen her starting favourite here as a filly who had won nicely from a subsequent Group 2 winner. She has been backed in since the Cromwell filly gave her form a more favourable slant.
In contrast the Dubawi filly Prettiest is more about potential. I backed her on debut purely on the chance that she could be a bit special being out of Alice Springs. She made all that day and found enough to repel her rivals. It was a race full of promise for the future but this is a big step up in a hurry. I would have thought that, given Aidan's record in the Albany, Prettiest might be better building more slowly to a higher level. Aidan has said that an injury to Contarelli Chapel had meant that they took Prettiest to the racecourse earlier than originally planned, in order that they could get a run into her before the Albany. That would suggest we can upgrade her effort last time but is she really ready for a Group 2 with several smart looking fillies lining up?
George Boughey has been firing in 2YO winners and he saddles three here. The acid test for the trainer will be when tackling the better races though. The fact that he runs three is perhaps an indication that they are of similar ability and you don't often have three with the ability to win a Group 2. His younsters hae not run well thus far at the meeting, so it's a pass from me on Oscula, Cachet and Hellomydarlin, who are rated 95, 90 and 88 respectively on Racing Post Ratings.
At bigger odds I feel Sandrine has been overlooked. Andrew Balding has already tasted success this week and his daughter of Bobby's Kitten made a winning denut at Kempton. She stayed on strongly that day to score by a length and winners have come from the race since. Most notable of those is Oscula, who was about two lengths in arrears of Sandrine in third place. I see no reason why Sandrine cannot improve and confirm the form, therefore it seems odd that Oscula is 7/1 and Sandrine 20/1. With five places available with Paddy Power I felt 16/1 EW Sandrine was worth an investment, if not necessarily the main bet.
Eve Lodge was third to my Queen Mary filly Get Ahead on debut and then won next time out. That second race didn't look strong and she was odds-on to win it. The ground was soft there and her winning RPR was only 5 lbs higher than her debut effort. Considered a bit unlucky on debut, Eve Lodge may do better on faster ground but the runner up from her winning race was beaten next time and I don't think Eve Lodge has shown enough to warrant being 8/1 in a tough looking race.
Hello You made a very taking debut for Ralph Beckett when romping home at Wolverhampton. I thought she had enough on to catch the filly who hit the front that day but she came with a rattle and powered past to score by more than six lengths in the end. A daughter of Invincible Spirit, Hello You cost 350,000 Euros and looks a good prospect. The runner-up White Jasmine was a disappointing fav when only 4th next time and was then out with the washing behind Quick Suzy in the Queen Mary but the 4th went on to win a race next time (Sunstrike, who reopposes)
Conclusion:-
It was hard not to be impressed by the way Hello You picked up at the furlong pole on her debut and she put good distance between herself and her rivals after that point. The subsequent form is questionable but when a horse is so dominant in a race, it is almost impossible for the form to work out strongly. I thought she was the one to be with but also felt Sandrine was overpriced.
2.30 Ascot Hello You 5/1 and Sandrine 16/1 EW (Five places Paddy Power)
Good luck to all.
Having seen the rain on The Opening Show this morning, I can confidently predict that if the rain does not relent soon, there will be no Royal Ascot this afternoon. With the ground already described as Soft and with puddles in areas, I will not be the only one not having a bet today.