Daily Racing Thread Friday 15th. March 2019

Monday... do you need to visit BeGambleAware.org?

 

Nope! I need to visit the pub.

Horrendous festival for my betting bar Tiger Roll on Wednesday, but it was some festival too. Some amazing pointers for the future of the sport and I think this festival has been the tipping point in terms of new/old jockeys and horses.

Today was one of the worst I’ve had on a racecourse in terms of awful feelings. Sir Eric was such a delight in the pre parade and parade rings and then the view of him stood chilled at the start. Then we saw what happened to him. He could have been a jumps stallion for the future and that loss is major for the sport.

Then Invitation Only as well and it wasn’t nice.

Today reminds me how special days like Wednesday and Thursday are and how lucky I’ve been this week to see Altior, Bryony/Frodon and Tiger Roll to name but three, but it was the novice chases (bar NH chase) that really gave great optimism for the future of NH racing.

I can’t wait to see them develop next season.

 

I didn't see either sad event, thank goodness. Such a shame for the poor horses and their connections It's heart breaking when you see a horse die. They look at you as if .. can't explain but it's heart breaking. In our case an emergency operation miraculously saved him but as he collapsed at the vets and was lying there helpless, he was saying good bye and then we had to go as they started to operate. Difficult to explain the feeling when we went to the vets to see him - alive. Some aren't so lucky and I feel for them

 

On the back of that, the care the racecourse team give these horses is exceptional, the care they were showing to horses who had stopped on track was superb and I really feel for the vets and team who have to deal with the tragic scenes that occur on our racecourses.

 

Agreed. But obviously they are not so emotionally attached

 

Sadly Invitation Only was fatally injured. It marred a race where there were more big disappointments than anything else really.

Kemboy couldn't get further than the first, just as he had done in the Irish National, while Bellshill was also out of it very early. Native River never really travelled but eventually made his way to the lead but he looks a Grand National horse now. Might Bite has something amiss. He travelled well early but went out like a light yet again. The wind op and change of medication have not sorted his problem. Clan Des Obeaux didn't quite last home, which was my biggest concern all along with him. He was outstayed by a one paced Native River and that's a worry if considering another tilt at the Gold Cup. Presenting Percy has to be the biggest Emperor's New Clothes horse ever. Not proven outside Novice company and only an egg and spoon Hurdle win to his name this season he still went off the favourite and even during the race commentary there seemed to be this childlike faith that the jockey was simply biding his time and would come like pegasus to win like the wonder horse some people seemed to think he was. The clues were there with him missing so many targets and the ground probably went against him in the end today as well. Thistlecrack was very poor and apart from beating Cue Card in a small field King George he has never really reached anything like his hurdles achievements over fences. Colin Tizzard picked the wrong time to go cold and is 1/50 the past fortnight. How you can arrive at the Festival in such terrible form is hard to fathom.

I wasn't in good form myself mind you Battleoverdoyen was a bitter disappointment and probably the worst favourite of the week from several contenders. He looked as slow as a boat and the jockey reported that he simply never travelled. The Vet reported that Battleoverdoyen lost a shoe but a pair of Usain Bolt's golden shoes would not have helped him. A couple of seconds with Santini and Lostintranslation that would have helped but it was a poor festival, with only my ante-post on Frodon at 16/1 for the Ryanair bearing any fruit. I picked eight lays for the Festival and they all got beat but it was a sickener because Sir Erec was one of them and nobody wants to see a horse lost. Joseph O'Brien said the stone bruise played no part and the horse was scanned and tested all clear in all departments. It's the downside of the game we follow but the young trainer had some winners as well as the tragedy and I wish him well at the game.

It was a memorable Cheltenham for the triumphs of the ladies but the race of the week for me was the Stayers. A rags to riches horse and a blind owner make fairytale stuff and the horse showed tenacity and determination, something his owner is certainly not short of either. Quality wise I don't think we had a vintage year. The Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup were weak affairs where most of the fancied ones were disappointments. Klassical Dream in the Supreme Novices was the one horse I felt laid down a serious marker for the future and I backed him for next year's Champion Hurdle at 10/1. I feel he'll be hard to beat wherever he goes next and his odds can only contract I feel. Surely 10/1 for him was a better bet than Laurina ever was. I make him a 160 hurdler after that Supreme run and hopefully he can build on that. For me he was much more impressive than Samcro was last season at Cheltenham, yet Samcro seemed to be seen as the second coming.

Hope plenty made a profit this year, there was certainly some great tipping put up.

 

Bryony has reportedly been backed from 100/1 in to 20/1 for Sports Personality Of The Year. Maybe she'll need Frodon to get her over the line in that one though.

 

I doubt going lame during the race helped much though

I'm sure some will recall that Amanda and I thought otherwise from very early on

 

I am not sure finishing lame tells all the story. Davy Russell reported that the horse just wasn't travelling at any stage and the trainer said Presenting Percy didn't jump with the zest of last season. If we take away The RSA run from last year, Presenting Percy's profile looks nothing like a Gold Cup winner's. Even his best win was achieved in a testing RSA, roughly 15 seconds slower than Topofthegame this season.

For all that Paul Nicholls bemoaned the rain spoiling Clan Des Obeaux's chance in this years Gold Cup, the time of the winner was only 2 seconds slower than standard and twenty three seconds faster than last season's Gold Cup. Colin Tizzard pondered whether blinkers would have helped on Native River but the problem the horse had was that he had to complete the course in a good bit quicker time in order to have won this year. He's run pretty much to the same as he did with Bristol De Mai in the Betfair at Haydock and personally speaking I reckon Tizzard should take the horse to the National races now, as his stamina is a big part of his talent.

Just as Native River had to go quicker this year, so too did Presenting Percy and it was not as if he came here a proven Gold Cup horse who then underperformed due to the lameness. He was a horse coming in with something to prove in terms of ratings and with a highly unusual preparation. It seemed like the trainer wanted hock deep ground in order to run his star and we learned nothing regarding any possible progress from last season.

Presenting Percy may have recorded a better finishing position if he had not developed lameness at some point of the race but it's a huge stretch to postulate that he might have won it. Sometimes I feel that horses cope with a minor problem during a race and it is only once the race is over and the adrenaline has subsided that the problem has a noticable effect.

In some ways it was a poor renewal of the Gold Cup with Might Bite having a clear problem of some sort, Native River looked like he needs a stronger stamina test and Clan Des Obeaux perhaps less of a test. Bellshill and Kemboy bombed out early and Thistlecrack ran a stinker but there were still horses in the mix who came in with higher ratings than Presenting Percy. The third, fourth and fifth were all rated 8 lbs higher than Presenting Percy on official figures coming in. No doubt the handicapper will thump a good few pounds on Al Boum Photo for winning and top up Anibale Fly for being runner up. Both horses were rated 164 before the Gold Cup and it always seems to be that the assessors whack a high figure on for one run, rather than question how many actually ran to something like their best in the circumstances. As ever, time will tell us.