Friday 14th December Daily Thread

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R

ROTO

Well-Known Member
Jun 20, 2011
2,397
72
48
Dublin, Ireland
2.55 Lingfield

Chookie Hamilton 5/2 NB

Although beaten off this mark on his last start by a neck, that came only a day after a facile success off a 6lb lower mark of 61 which certainly wasn't ideal but with the talented Jason Hart claiming 5lb off his back and with a 10 day rest under his belt I feel Chookie Hamilton should prove incredibly hard to beat. Back in March, Chookie Hamilton won at the course over a furlong further off a mark of 72 for Keith Dalgleish before joining Ian Semple for 9 runs (8 on turf) for a very unproductive spell but as a result he dropped a long way in the weights to a mark of 57. He then rejoined Keith Dalgleish and won on his first start back on the AW at Wolves last month. Upped a very kind 4lb for that success, he continued his winning trend 11 days ago when winning in very impressive fashion by 4L off a mark of 61 when eased down in an apprentice handicap under a big weight. Connections were clearly very keen to strike when the iron was hot under a penalty (effectively a mark of 67) as they turned him out over the same C+D at Wolves a day later and although he ran a belter to get beaten by only a neck I think the previous days excursions took more out of him then it seemed. Regardless of that, the winner Stand Guard has come out and won very impressively off a 6lb higher mark yesterday and it was another great performance by this 8 year old. He's now had a 10 day break which I think will to him the world of good and given that he is off the same mark as his latest 2nd he should take an awful lot of beating. In addition, the talented Jason Hart (2-4 for the yard) takes off very valuable 5lbs which gets him down to effectively 1lb lower than his facile success only 11 days ago. Given the strength of his latest 2nd (I think he would have won had he a longer break) and that he is still 5lb below the mark he won off in March I think Chookie Hamilton looks an absolutely fantastic bet for the bang in form Keith Dalgleish yard and I will be very surprised if is beaten.
 
Cheers roto, had a couple of good wins from this horse recently. Do you have any opinion on hawk moth tomorrow 7:20 wolvers? Looked an interesting runner to me.
 
3.05 Cheltenham: SAINT ROQUE 6/1 (NAP)

In the proces of running an excellent race on reappearance and this is a horse who is very well handicapped.

I am pretty sure that Paul Nicholls is looking to exploit his hurdles mark as he never ran to his true potential last season, and he has delayed his chasing career to do so, and Nicholls fancies him to be a chaser sooner rather than later.


He was bought down when cantering last time out and I am pleased to see there is juice in his price. It is stiff opposition but he is very well weighted when you take into account Harry Derhams claim, making him off a mark of 114, which is at least 14lb wrong.
 
Rollin n' Tumblin 10/1 1:45 Lingfield for same reasons as Saturday! Again on Saturday he found trouble as the race got going, I'm not sure if this is due to his lack of race speed or he is just unlucky! I'd like to see him tracking the leaders rather than been held up and the day that happens I'm sure he will win! Last chance saloon for me tomorrow
 
6.50 Wolverhampton

Mubtadi 14/1 NAP

I'm hoping this horse pays for all my Christmas presents as he makes his first start since being gelded with a first time hood which should both significantly settle him and I think he'll prove incredibly difficult to beat on what is a career low mark of 62. Ismail Mohammed's 4 year old has been the subject of extremely positive talk from the yard's race planner Terry Norman who has said on several occasions that Mubtadi "will be the one to beat", that he will be "devastated if he can't want off this mark" and that he "will be shocked if he is unable to win off this rating". Formerly with David Simock, Mubtadi showed some very decent form as a 3 year when a head 2nd off a mark of 81 at Doncaster in a strong Class 2 handicap over a mile as well as a staying on 3.25L beaten 4th over 7f at Goodwood behind the subsequently very progressive pair of Tariq Too and Valencha off a mark of 82 on what was his last start for Simcock. Mubtadi made his debut for current connections in May when a rather unlucky in running 4L beaten 7th at Newbury off a mark of 81 and that effort showed that he still maintained his ability. Its been pretty much downhill in his 6 starts for the yard since then (although he did shape pretty nicely 3 starts back when lit up by a visor at Yarmouth) but as a result he has become a very well handicapped horse. Moreover, he wouldn't have liked the soft ground (3 of those runs) and he was ill after his run at Redcar two starts back so at least there are some mitigating factors involved with his poor performances.

On his last start Mubtadi was dropped into a Class 6 for the first time in his career at Southwell off a mark of 65 where he ran well enough to finish a 7.5L beaten 6th at the end of October. Under Liam Jones, he was the last to break away from the stalls and was always behind which is a massive disadvantage on the fibresand surface but he was worked back to sit off the pace after a bit of urging. He never really looked like getting involved in the finish as he weakened in the final furlong to finish 6th. I have to say I was a little disappointed with him that day but Liam Jones reported back that he was more interested in looking at the people in the stands and that he needed gelding. Shortly after the race his, and I quote, "massive balls" were removed and the yard's race planner has reported that he is much happier and more manageable in his work at home. Moreover, Terry Norman has also reported that he has been working well in a hood at home under tomorrow's jockey Shane Kelly and all reports emanating from the yard seem to be very positive. He makes his AW debut which should pose no real dangers as it should suit on breeding with his mark dropped another 3lb to a career low of 62 which makes him a very well handicapped animal for a horse of his ability. Although he has some questions to answer with regards to recent form, his gelding operation should significantly improve his performance (as it did for his stable mate Educate) and the hood's ability to muffle noises should also see him far more relaxed. The draw in stall 7 isn't ideal or terrible and Shane Kelly, who has been working with him at home, takes the ride for the first time tomorrow. Ismail Mohammed hasn't had many runners as of late but he was operating at a 33% strike rate in September and October so he seems to have got up and running well in Great Britain after a shaky start to his career outside of Dubai. With strong reports coming from the yard, with the race planner stating he will be devastated if he can't win off this mark, with this being his first run in a hood and first since gelding and off a career low mark, I'm really hoping everything falls into place for this 4 year old and that he sorts out all of Christmas in one fell swoop.
 
hawkeye said:
Cheers roto, had a couple of good wins from this horse recently. Do you have any opinion on hawk moth tomorrow 7:20 wolvers? Looked an interesting runner to me.
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Not a race I'd like to get involved with myself. Pelmanism was definitely a foiled plot on his last start when Ellison was woefully out of form and he also has the other joint fav Travis County who could easily be the first string given De Sousa is on that one. With regards to Hawk Moth, he's back down to his last winning mark but was beaten off only 1lb higher the last twice and didn't look like he was about to score. Not impossible and 14/1 isn't a bad price but not a race I like the look of personally. Good luck if your backing him!
 
The good news for you all is that Overturn doesn't run at Bangor so you can continue to fill your satchels with a horse that would otherwise have been a short, short priced favourite for the Arkle this time tomorrow!
 
AP going to Bangor for one ride in the first before heading to cheltenham. Malt Master for Nicky Henderson in a novice chase. Should be winning this providing it jumps round ok. Only 8/11 but going to put it in a double with ROTOs pick Chookie Hamilton <ok>
 
Have a look at ORCHARD BOY in the Bangor bumper tomorrow fellas. My info is that the yard think this one is pretty decent. Some good yards represented but keep a close eye on the market!
 
1.20 Tom Du Lys 8/1
1.55 Midnight Chase 4/1
3.05 At Fishers Cross 4/1
3.40 Eduard 9/2

Dundalk 7.00 Iron Major 8/1 NAP
 
TopClass said:
Do you all actually think Overturn will take all the beating in an Arkle?
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I must say his one of the best chasing debuts I've seen in quite a while. Pinged every fence and won with consummate ease and I was very impressed. Fair enough he'll be 9 come festival time but there will only be 4 months between that extremely impressive debut and Cheltenham.

That said, the Arkle looks like a fantastic renewal and whether he is up to winning is another story as one cannot help be impressed by Arvika Ligeonniere and, to a slightly lesser extent in my opinion, Captain Conan. Chuck in Simonsig who could be a monster over fences and it looks very open. I'll probably back Overturn before his latest run with a view to laying my stake off as I suspect he'll produce another scintillating display on his next start.
 
1.20 Cheltenham

Talkin Thomas 18/1

There is absolutely no question in my mind that the handicapper has been very lenient in assigning Nicky Richards unexposed 6 year old a mark of 112 for his handicap debut and it simply boils down will he be able to handle a hot looking race of this nature. With only 5 starts in his career to date, I think Talkin Thomas has shown a progressive profile coupled with some lovely form over hurdles and from the foot of the handicap I think he's going to run a mighty race. After showing some decent bumper form when placing in both starts in October and November last year, Talkin Thomas should considerable improvement over hurdles to score at the first time of asking in good style on the back of a 4 month break in March at Newcastle and it was a very pleasing effort to land Miss Joey Richards, the trainer's daughter, sole career start to date. A little keen early on over the 2m journey, Talkin Thomas was held up in the rear of the field and after a couple of furlongs he settled pretty nicely. Travelling powerfully throughout the contest, this 6 year old cruised into contention turning into the home straight before 3 out. Still travelling very well within himself, he jumped to the front at the last and although he had to be driven hard up the long run in he was always holding the runner up Rhymers Ha as he went on to score by three quarters of a length.

The form of that race looks very strong with the 2nd Rhymers Ha scoring a few days ago off a mark of 110 and the 3rd Pas Trop Tard scoring three times subsequently (twice in Novice hurdles) most recently impressively off a mark of 117 last month. Additionally, the 4th Victor Hewgo has scored twice since with his most recent success coming a couple of weeks ago off a mark of 118. It must be said that the form is not as cut and dry as it seems given that none of these rivals scored on their next starts and it took a few more runs to reach the levels they are at now but it demonstrates the level of form they have subsequently achieved. However, Talkin Thomas was the only horse in the top 6 who did not have hurdling experience which is a very big tick in the plus column. A month later Talkin Thomas tried to defy a penalty upped in trip at Bangor but he finished distressed so its an effort that is completely ignored.

After finishing distressed it was completely understandable that Talkin Thomas was off for a break but he shaped tremendously well on his comeback from a 6 month absence in October at Worcester and there is no doubt in my mind that he badly needed the run. Conceding the field 7lb penalty for his earlier success, Talkin Thomas was held up in last place under today's jockey Brian Harding but he really cut through the field in taking fashion as he travelled into the home straight powerfully. Squeezed a little bit at the 3rd last flight, Talkin Thomas was still travelling kindly coming to the 2nd last where he slightly sprawled on landing and had no more to give when asked as he dropped from 3rd to 4th in the run in as he finished an understandably tired horse and 11L off the winner. Turning into the home straight this gelding looked by far the most likely winner of the race but he found pretty much nothing which is completely understandable and he is sure to strip an awful lot fitter for that run. The form of that race has worked out really nicely with the 2nd Barrakilla and 5th Smadynium (both hurdling debutants) scoring in Novice events on their only subsequent starts with the latter scoring particularly impressively. Although its clear that pair benefited greatly from that run, it strengthens the form of Nicky Richards charge.

Based on those two lovely hurdles run that are applicable, I'm rather shocked that the handicapper has given him a mark of 112 as I personally think its definitely on the low side and I certainly don't think it will be long before he proves that. He's been pitched in at a very competitive level for his handicap debut but I think that says an awful lot about what connections think off what clearly looks a very favourable mark. He's sneaked in at the bottom of the weights and has a lovely racing weight of 10-3 which should definitely help in a contest of this nature. Although he may easily handle it, I'm hoping the forecast rain doesn't get into the ground before this contest as the 60 day gap since his last run may be because of the ground but I am merely speculating. In this 17 runner contest, there could be some classy types lurking which is an obvious danger for a horse with as little experience as Talkin Thomas but I think that is certainly factored into the price. A big trend I fear is that this race has traditionally gone to the classier types with the last 4 renewals going to horses carrying 11-5 or higher which is a definite negative. Brian Harding takes the ride on board this 6 year old having partnered him on his last start and this represents his only ride of the day. Trainer Nicky Richards is in absolutely belting form at present with his last 3 runners winning so he clearly has his string in excellent form and you can't not be buoyed by that. Off a mark that I clearly feel he can win races, I am confident of a big showing from this progressive 6 year old and I'm hoping that he can make his life in handicaps a winning against this tough looking field.
 
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