Daily Racing Thread Friday 13th. Sept. 2019

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Grendel said:
Golden Dragon is a non-runner. I thought he had a lot on and Flaming Princess is 12 lbs higher rated yet was 16/1.

I think it's a two horse race and went with Alligator Alley despite him being lower rated than A'Ali.

A'Ali was reckoned to have won the Prix Robert Papin cosily but I felt he was a little outpaced before coming late. The question with him is this good to firm ground, because his best form is on soft. In addition the Prix Robert Papin has not worked out well at all and the Norfolk Stakes has worked out moderately at best. I couldn't touch A'Ali at a general 6/5 today.

Alligator Alley has looked better at 5F than in his starts at 6F. He's won twice and was runner up to Lowther second Liberty Beach in his other effort at the minimum trip. He has form on the fast ground and as a son of Kingman he may have more to come and I think he will be a tough nut to crack with his form on the going of no concern. For me he was better value at 13/8. Flaming Princess to be 3rd at 3/1 appeals to me as well, with the possibility of collecting on both bets.

3.45 Doncaster Alligator Alley 13/8

Flaming Princess to finish 3rd 3/1
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Your the biggest ghost on this forum
 
dylanthomas said:
Your the biggest ghost on this forum
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Small minded pish from someone who adds next to nothing to the forum.

Alligator Alley was backed in to favouritism, so I was hardly alone in thinking 13/8 was a decent price. Sadly horses are not machines and he ran like a drain. That happens a lot with horses and very few horses are actually consistent in running their races time after time.

Visinari was a flop again today and that seems to be the nail in the coffin of his taking debut win. Simon Rowlands has long held the belief that the colt has exceptional stride length that you only see in top class horses but even he must be of a mind that the Johnston horse is a Dolly Parton now.

Alligator Alley has finished behind a horse rated 86 today and that is a horse he was rated 18 lbs higher than. In the end A'Ali has won but once again it was late in the day that he got on top from horses who are nowhere near Group 2 class. Runner up Dream Shot has been beaten a length today but he was 4 and a half lengths behind Alligator Alley at York last time, so anyone capable of joined up thinking can work out that Alligator Alley would have won on the formlines if he had run to the York form today.

Molatham won again but it was workmanlike rather than exciting.

Come on then dylanthomas, get some tips up and we can see what you can do. Nothing worse than faceless, feckless, gutless critics on a forum.
 
A'Ali was cantering all over them all the way, race was never in doubt at any stage, tougher test awaits at Santa Anita against Kimari.
 
Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga said:
A'Ali was cantering all over them all the way, race was never in doubt at any stage, tougher test awaits at Santa Anita against Kimari.
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My only slight reservation about going really big on this one today was that it was firmer ground than previously tried. The AW Deauville didn’t suit but I did think that even that form (behind Earthlight) was going to be good enough today. He is smart.
 
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Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga said:
A'Ali was cantering all over them all the way, race was never in doubt at any stage, tougher test awaits at Santa Anita against Kimari.
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stick said:
My only slight reservation about going really big on this one today was that it was firmer ground than previously tried. The AW Deauville didn’t suit but I did think that even that form (behind Earthlight) was going to be good enough today. He is smart.
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The race at Deauville was on Turf but the going was described as Heavy. The time was only slow by 1.2 seconds though and I don't believe for one nanosecond that it could have been Heavy ground. Today's race was on Good To Firm but the time was slow by 1.45 seconds so I don't buy into it being possible to run a relatively quicker time on Heavy than on Good To Firm.

The general consensus today was that it was a two horse race and with the other horse running a stinker it was effectively a cake walk for the other horse by any logical assumption. Alligator Alley ran 8 and a half lengths worse with Dream Shot today than from a race at York 20 days ago. Alligator Alley bunny hopped out of the stalls rather awkwardly today and Donnacha O'Brien reported to the Stewards that the colt had become upset in the stalls today. Whatever the reason, he didn't run his race today.

I though A'Ali won comfortably but Frankie did shake him up enough to get him rolling and it was no canter from my viewpoint. I don't think he beat a lot and I won't back him in the Breeders Cup where he is going to meet a lot more speed than was on show today in what was conceived to be a match in many people's minds coming into the race. I thought Alligator Alley was the call because he was the bigger price and proven on the ground. the betting flip-flopped but the new favourite was never going like a potential winner today.

Fans of A'Ali will surely be interested at 7/1 for the Breeder's Cup race but I am with Kimari at 11/2 for that one and think A'Ali is quite poor value with Stan James at 9/2.
 
Grendel said:
The race at Deauville was on Turf but the going was described as Heavy. The time was only slow by 1.2 seconds though and I don't believe for one nanosecond that it could have been Heavy ground. Today's race was on Good To Firm but the time was slow by 1.45 seconds so I don't buy into it being possible to run a relatively quicker time on Heavy than on Good To Firm.

The general consensus today was that it was a two horse race and with the other horse running a stinker it was effectively a cake walk for the other horse by any logical assumption. Alligator Alley ran 8 and a half lengths worse with Dream Shot today than from a race at York 20 days ago. Alligator Alley bunny hopped out of the stalls rather awkwardly today and Donnacha O'Brien reported to the Stewards that the colt had become upset in the stalls today. Whatever the reason, he didn't run his race today.

I though A'Ali won comfortably but Frankie did shake him up enough to get him rolling and it was no canter from my viewpoint. I don't think he beat a lot and I won't back him in the Breeders Cup where he is going to meet a lot more speed than was on show today in what was conceived to be a match in many people's minds coming into the race. I thought Alligator Alley was the call because he was the bigger price and proven on the ground. the betting flip-flopped but the new favourite was never going like a potential winner today.

Fans of A'Ali will surely be interested at 7/1 for the Breeder's Cup race but I am with Kimari at 11/2 for that one and think A'Ali is quite poor value with Stan James at 9/2.
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Thanks for the clarification Grendel. I have tried to watch the Deauville race a few times but for some reason the ATR player for French races never wants to load on my laptop. I was perplexed as I didnt think it had an AW track but when studying the results I saw on at least two sites the going description as "standard". Shoddy work huh.
 
The Morny was a very high level race with Earthlight and Raffle Prize and it was a big class drop for A'Ali against listed horses. It looks like Alligator Alley was maybe flattered by a pace collapse at York as he managed to win from what looked a hopeless position that day, he didnt run his race here but I dont think he is going to be same class as A'Ali. The way the race panned out it was penalty kick for Dettori and as Grendel says, the pace will be much hotter in America. I'm still strong on Kimari but A'Ali has the class to run well.

QM will tell you about the french going descriptions, french soft is not the same as uk or ire soft.
 
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