Daily Racing Thread Friday 13th. Sept. 2019

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Friday's Meetings

Chester
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:15p.m.
Listowel
Mixed 8 Races 1:55-5:55p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 8 Races 2:10-6:00p.m.
Sandown
Flat 7 Races 2:20-5:35p.m.
Salisbury(E)
Flat 6 Races 4:35-7:10p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
Some decent Racing this weekend, although the St Leger looks the usual pile of Barry White where only ante-post backers of Logician will be excited. Hard to believe that Too Darn Hot was once the favourite for the race.

I have had a few bets on the Irish Racing early on and started with Cross Counter in the Irish St Leger. Kew Gardens is narrow favourite but has had a quiet season. Cross Counter found the Gold Cup trip too far behind Stradivarius and again finished behind the champ over 2 miles next time. He could be suited by the drop in trip here and Godolphin said early in the season that defending the Melbourne Cup was the main priority. The horse owes me nothing after winning the Melbourne Cup and landing an ante-post in the Dubai Gold Cup. Hopefully he has everything in place to run well here and then on to Australia to try for the double.

In the Moyglare I felt Albigna was the one who could improve for stepping up to 7F and 5/2 seemed fair given the opposition perhaps looking less speedy than her. She needs this to justify/solidify favouritism for the 1000 Guineas and a win could see her short for that in a year with no outstanding filly so far. Daahyeh is respected but less sure to like the 7F in my mind. Hard to escape the thought that Albigna was crying out for another furlong last time and her absence suggests they waited for the Moyglare and perhaps closing the season thereafter.

In the Flying Five we see Soffia as the key horse. She was impressive last time and took a massive hike in the ratings afterwards. The performance was miles ahead of anything prior to it and I was suspicious about whether it would hold up. Her previous two wins have worked out terribly, with zero winners in 44 starts. Her last race has seen one win from 16 starts and that is a worrying 1 from 60 subsequent runs across the 3 races. Soldiers Call was favourite for Zoffia's latest race but he was disappointing on the day. After being done by the penalty on his first run of the season, Soldier's Call has put in two superb efforts in being 3rd to Blue Point in the Kings Stand and then 2nd to Baataash in the Nunthorpe. No disgrace in being beaten by those juggernauts and this weekend is shallower waters for the Watson horse. 5F is his game, unlike Invincible Army, who is a 6F horse. At the odds I preferred Soldier's Call at 7/2 to Soffia at 5/2.

Irish St Leger Cross Counter 7/2

Moyglare Albigna 5/2

Flying Five Soldier's Call 7/2

3 singles and a treble.

In the Champagne Stakes it looks like original market mover Mum's Tipple is out and Threat is warm favourite. I can't back him at 6/5, so unless Armory turns up it will be a watch only race. Pinatubo is skinny fav for the National Stakes and will be tough to beat.
 
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James Given brings one down to Sandown tommorow in the opener , hasn’t run any since last sat , when he sent two to wolves , 14/1 , 7/1 winning double ,Many A Star 2 20 sandown
 
Good Luck

3.45 Doncaster-Golden Dragon

Each Way @ 12-1 [Ladbrokes]

Might surprise the big two
 
Grade One said:
Good Luck

3.45 Doncaster-Golden Dragon

Each Way @ 12-1 [Ladbrokes]

Might surprise the big two
Click to expand...

On ITV yesterday they were banging on about this horse and how he beat Kings Lynn (winner yesterday) at Windsor and how that put him in this race with a big chance. That race was his third and Kings Lynn was making his debut. I reckon Kings Lynn improved around a stone from debut to second run and beat a solid 101 rated yardstick by less than a length yesterday. On that basis Golden Dragon's mark of 87 is looking pretty accurate and that gives him around 26lbs to find with AALI. Best of luck to you but I really cant see him troubling the top two in the betting.
 
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Off to the Caledonian Canal tomorrow for a boating adventure so no chance of seeing the racing over weekend..based on weather forecast for tomorrow we might struggle with the boat.:emoticon-0100-smile.. gonna have a go today on

Doncaster 2.10pm Mot Juste 8/1 each way. Goodwood is a funny old course and a return to a more traditional galloping track likely to suit. Big chance.
 
CaptainPops said:
Off to the Caledonian Canal tomorrow for a boating adventure so no chance of seeing the racing over weekend..based on weather forecast for tomorrow we might struggle with the boat.:emoticon-0100-smile.. gonna have a go today on

Doncaster 2.10pm Mot Juste 8/1 each way. Goodwood is a funny old course and a return to a more traditional galloping track likely to suit. Big chance.
Click to expand...

Wide open race that one. I quite like the look of Dettori's horse California Love @ 11/1. The thing that is actually putting me off is that Dettori has an outstanding chance of winning with his other 4 rides that follow and i just can't see him doing the 5 timer. Mine looks the obvious weak link of the 5 but i really fancy its chances. Win bet.
 
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I am taking on Molatham in the belief that he is still being overrated because he got so close to Mum's Tipple on debut. He went on to win his maiden afterwards but despite some judges calling it a cosy win, it was only by a neck. Mum's Tipple went on to be rated 119 on RPRs after his second race, whereas Molatham was rated 90 for winning. That still leaves Molatham with plenty to find to be mentioned in the same breath as Mum's Tipple. There could be more to come but there needs to be and at 15/8 I am passing.

Aidan O'Brien's Witchita won his maiden readily according to the race report but he only won by a head and it's going to take a lot more than his 84 rating to land this race and even allowing him improvement I don't see value at 7/2.

I am backing Visinari here and at 5/2 he seems the value option. Impressive on debut before being disappointing as hot favourite next time, he then ran in the Vintage Stakes where trainer Mark Johnston felt he would go close. In the end he was beaten a long way that day but he was facing leading 2YO Pinatubo there and runner up Positive won the Solera next time, while 3rd Lope Y Fernandez won the Group 3 Round Tower next time and the 5th horse Platinum Star won a Listed race cosily next time. Overall I would say that if Visinari had beaten Platinum Star in a lesser race and then we saw that runner up win a Listed race by more than 3 lengths next time, we would be thinking of Visinari as a warm favourite taking on maiden winners at this level.

Visinari is 16 lbs higher than Molatham on Racing Post ratings and 12 lbs ahead of the field. The Vintage Stakes was a funny old race with such big margins between the runners and several disappointed on the day. Lope Y Fernandez bounced back with a 108 performance next time and Platinum Star bounced back with a 108 performance next time. Having split those two last time, Visinari is going to be very tough to beat with a similar return to his best and these are shallower waters.

4.20 Doncaster Visinari 5/2

A make or break day for the Johnston colt really and I think he's well worth a chance today.
 
smokethedeadbadger said:
Wide open race that one. I quite like the look of Dettori's horse California Love @ 11/1. The thing that is actually putting me off is that Dettori has an outstanding chance of winning with his other 4 rides that follow and i just can't see him doing the 5 timer. Mine looks the obvious weak link of the 5 but i really fancy its chances. Win bet.
Click to expand...
Quite strong on the favourites chances in the race as it happens but plummed for my selection as 3 year olds have a good record in it plus trainers record not too shabby too..:emoticon-0148-yes:
 
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Golden Dragon is a non-runner. I thought he had a lot on and Flaming Princess is 12 lbs higher rated yet was 16/1.

I think it's a two horse race and went with Alligator Alley despite him being lower rated than A'Ali.

A'Ali was reckoned to have won the Prix Robert Papin cosily but I felt he was a little outpaced before coming late. The question with him is this good to firm ground, because his best form is on soft. In addition the Prix Robert Papin has not worked out well at all and the Norfolk Stakes has worked out moderately at best. I couldn't touch A'Ali at a general 6/5 today.

Alligator Alley has looked better at 5F than in his starts at 6F. He's won twice and was runner up to Lowther second Liberty Beach in his other effort at the minimum trip. He has form on the fast ground and as a son of Kingman he may have more to come and I think he will be a tough nut to crack with his form on the going of no concern. For me he was better value at 13/8. Flaming Princess to be 3rd at 3/1 appeals to me as well, with the possibility of collecting on both bets.

3.45 Doncaster Alligator Alley 13/8

Flaming Princess to finish 3rd 3/1
 
The 2.10 is wide open and several have been disappointing.

I felt Di Fede was likely to run her race and at 7/1 had a good each-way chance after a decent run behind Sudois in what looked a stronger race than this last time.

2.10 Di Fede 7/1 EW
 
CaptainPops said:
Off to the Caledonian Canal tomorrow for a boating adventure so no chance of seeing the racing over weekend..based on weather forecast for tomorrow we might struggle with the boat.:emoticon-0100-smile.. gonna have a go today on

Doncaster 2.10pm Mot Juste 8/1 each way. Goodwood is a funny old course and a return to a more traditional galloping track likely to suit. Big chance.
Click to expand...

3rd ..small profit. :emoticon-0148-yes:. That's it..until next Saturday...
 
Dee Ex Bee NR

Penalty kick now for Stradivarius
I did wonder why he had been backed into 1/4

Probably be 1/10 now
 
Breathtaking Look sluiced up there. Beaten off 92 in a York Handicap last time and then hoses up in a Group 3.

Di Fede was very disappointing considering how many of that field were vulnerable looking coming in and performed in that manner. She came under the cosh worryingly early and has run well below her most recent effort today. I was surprised to see Angels Hideaway tipped today given her run of form and Solar Gold looked very short to me. Mot Juste has run better today but I couldn't have picked the winner with six shots at the race.
 
Reebok said:
Not quite a sinking feeling then, Pops - unlike your chances next week <laugh> Have a great time mate <ok>
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Lol...indeed Reebs. Having been to Loch Ness and that area before I know when they say gale force winds and heavy rain it means it's gonna be quite horrendous.Weather supposed to improve though and we are there until Tuesday. We have a pretty decent motor cruiser to take us down the lochs - just as well
 
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