Chester Cup
I normally bring my draw bias stats out for the Victoria Cup, but I am starting early this year.
The Chester Cup is a bumper with stalls, lets get that stated first, but unlike a bumper, the positions at the start are dictated and they even play a part in the outcome of this 2 mile 2 furlong race.
So since 2010
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The blue shows number of winners of the race, showing that stalls 2 and 11 have 2 wins each. The grey shows the expected number of winners give market expectation (shorter the price, the more likely the winner), the largest range between these two bars is stall 11 which exceeds expectation, the other stalls that have done this are stall 2, 6, 9, 10 & 14.
So what does this mean? It means that you can win from wider draws, and if you do, you normally win at decent enough prices to exceed market expectations, but 7 of the 12 winners were drawn stall 6 or below. Emiyn in Stall 1 could make all, I just hope Rajinsky doesn't come across from stall 5 and pester for the early lead.
Now what I find more interesting is looking at the Percentage of Runners Beaten numbers, which are plotted as the line (secondary axis). This shows that if you are drawn low (stalls 1 to 4) you are more likely to beat more runners home, with stall 1 being the exception. Stall 1 may have the Epsom Derby issue, in that you can get trapped by the rail in behind runners (the winner made all).
So what am I trying to say? God knows.
However, what I think is that backing stall 11 would be interesting, but I can't have the horse at all. So I am going to go for the forecasts and tricasts from stalls 1, 2, 3 & 4, with
