Newcastle over a mile or less in 2025 (prior to today)
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What is interesting here is that when you look in the newspaper or on ATR it states "Draw Advantage - High".... perhaps that is too simplistic?
I watched the 4:10 and it was obvious those who were drawn highest had real trouble staying with the field up the rail, with Inexplicable falling away quickly, then Martin's Brig when he got the rail, and no shows from Pop Favorite or Mr Coco Bean.
Now, will this continue?
5:15 Pace looks central with Oriental Prince, Darlo Pride and possibly low with Sugar Baby (long lay off). The key here though is the potential lack of pace, and that could set it up for a horse who can quicken at the key time in the race. This leads me to two horses.
Thunder Star - Penultimate run quickened to a 10.67 furlong after the first furlong of the race.
Darlo Pride - quickened to 10.57 furlong after his first furlong last time out.
Those two against the field, if I had to go for one, Thunder Star would be the call.
6:45 Pace looks to be low draws, and that could help with my theory. The market has the correct favourite in Tomorrow Day, but I prefer the brilliantly named
Fircombe Hall who looks the epitomy of a EW bet to nothing