French Flat Season [2019]

Looking at Earthlight's pedigree, I would be surprised if he weren't up to winning the 2000 Gns based on his run over 6f.

 

Time after time we get Morny winners who look like they might get a mile at 3YO but time after time it doesn't happen for them.

I prefer a horse to have won over 7F as a 2YO when considering a Guineas contender and the problem for Earthlight as a Guineas contender is that we already have a Shamardal colt as warm favourite for the race. Pinatubo has arguably more chance of staying a mile and he remains 3 lbs ahead of Earthlight on RPRs and has the benefit of winning over 7F on two occasions. Pintatubo has improved by 10 lbs, 11lbs and 13 lbs on his three starts since a Wolverhampton debut and he sets a strong standard at the moment.

Siskin looks like the one who will not stay a mile as a 3YO. He looks all speed really and I don't think his form is as strong as it is rated by some assessors. He's the lay for me. Earthlight has a better chance than him and the pedigree gives hope for sure but he's held off a fast filly narrowly yesterday and she fought back hard to make it closer than looked likely when Earthlight loomed up. Maybe a fast ground Guineas would help Earthlight but there's a nag for me about the Morny record of the last Generation. Zafonic remains the only horse I can recall who went on to win at Newmarket.

Armory is entered in the Futurity at the Curragh on Friday evening, in a race that seems certain to be ravaged down from the 52 entries, perhaps to as low as single figures. Siskin, Arizona and Monarch Of Egypt all look unlikely from the highly rated entries and it looks a race Armory needs to win to cement his path to the Dewhurst. Armory has been treading a well worn series of races used by his trainer for his more highly regarded 2YO colts. Armory needs to step up by 10 lbs to reach the upper echelons but having improved 14 lbs and 17 lbs from races 1-2 and 2-3 it is possible he has more to come. By the legendary Galileo, he would be one of the strongest candidates to make a top 3YO next season and he may be second favourite for the Guineas if he puts up a good performance this week.

 

Armory is the one ive been most impressed by so far from Obriens, on paper he still a bit off the top 2yos but physically he looks to have a lot more to come. Arizona can probably be excused that run on heavy ground.

I think Pinatubo is the finished article already, hes a proper G1 2yo as shown by that Goodwood performance but I dont see him progressing much, very early maturing horse.

 

Pinatubo and Earthlight have almost identical profiles. They both started off in modest enough style and have both come forward rapidly.

Pinatubo began with an 87 rated performance in May. Earthlight started with an 86 rated performance in June. Earthlight has actually risen up the ladder over a month shorter space of time and is arguably the more precocious in that respect. Earthlight is also physically a month older than Pinatubo, as a February foal compared to a March foal.

The other difference is that nothing has really got close to Pinatubo. His smallest winning margin was in the Woodcote at Epsom when he seemed to hate the track.

Both colts are approaching the territory where the window of further improvement is narrowing because of the natural limit on how good any juvenile can become. It seems unlikely they will clash this season but I wouldn't really say that one is likely to progress more than the other based on the similar profiles they have.

 

A colt called Victor Ludorum was an impressive debut winner recently for Fabre/Godolphin

Is by Shamardal and so will be interested when another 2 year old son of his with the same connections makes his debut called Algiers

 

A big Group One in France today (2.50)

Quite like the Fabre colt Delaware @ 8-1

 

Unplaced

 

Has his debut at Saint Cloud today [3.06pm]..currently 3-1

 

Though unplaced it was a very interesting debut from Algiers

As fly jumped leaving the stalls, and in the early stages was a long way last. Latched on to the herd into the straight, but was still last 200 meters out before running on nicely to finish 6th behind what looked a nice prospect in the winner.

 

After being beaten next time [4th] Matematica gets the job done today at Saint-Cloud in a Listed race @ 9-1

 

One of my former tips also bounced back today. I put Kings Command up for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket. The horse was well backed into 9/4 Fav but stank the place out in last place beaten 20 lengths. Charlie Appleby said that the ground was too fast for the horse that day and it was good ground when he was 3rd in France next time. Here he goes today on Soft ground and bolts up at 11/1. Runner up today was Royal Crusade, who was a shade of odds-on but thumped three and a half lengths by his less fancied stablemate. Royal Crusade is said to work all over Pinatubo on the gallops but he was no match for his stable companion today. That leaves his previous race looking mixed with Threat disappointing next time as well, yet the last that day Royal Dornoch caused a mini boil over in the Royal Lodge at 16/1.

Kings Command may be worth keeping an eye on if running on soft again this autumn.

 

First run also since Kings was gelded!

 

Victor Ludorum Wins the big Group 1 today

 

Algiers ran at Maisons-Laffitte last week and was a neck 2nd

Again shaped nicely and will improve for a step up in trip...trust me this colt will win a nice race

 

She runs in another listed race at Longchamp later today (2.15)

Win bet at 7-2

 

In the 2.15 at Longchamp K CLUB could spring a surprise at big odds. Formerly trained by Richard Hannon, K Club has improved a lot for his new german trainer when placed in 2 listed races. Jockey Hardouin gets on well with him (2 rides - 1 second, 1 win).

 

4th

 

Matematica disappointed, but is quickly turned out today at Saint Cloud [3.25]

Each Way bet at 10-1 [Skybet]

 

Unplaced