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French Flat Season [2019]

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grade One, Mar 8, 2019.

  1. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Sick draw for Siyarafina in the Diane, 16 of 16, it was too much to overcome for the Aga Khan hotpot of last season and she will need to have plenty in hand to enhance the poor record of Saint Alary winners in this, if she is top class then the draw wont matter.

    Commes 11/2 looks the one to capitalize if the draw proves too much for Siyarafina.
     
    #121
  2. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Yes would have to be a layer of the Fav at 7-4, think Channel at 18-1 appeals each way
     
    #122
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Siyarafina is in the coffin corner draw of 16 of the 16 runner field. Just as Persian King got a crap draw in the French Derby, my ante-post bet gets the worst draw again. I'm well used with this trend by now.

    The trainer reports Siyarafina to be in good form and he stated that she is versatile from a tactical point of view. De Royer-Dupre feels this is a stiffer stamina test than the Saint Alary and listening to him you would not be running out to back Siyarafina for the Arc De Triomphe. You can get 13/8 for the unbeaten filly and I feel she is the one to beat.

    Aidan O'Brien sent nothing here in the end, while Jean-Claude Rouget saddles four runners, perhaps a sign he has no outstanding candidate. John Gosden has sent Entitle over and she is closely tied with Roger Varian's Nausha from their last meeting. Both of those fillies look a bit short of the necessary class, while Francis Graffard's Channel is progressive but needs quite a lot more this time. Wonderment is quite well rated on RPR's but her Group 1 win from last season looks overrated to me and she was only 4th to Channel last time out, well below her form from last season's Saint-Cloud race. Commes was narrowly runner up in the French 1000 Guineas but she is stepping up from a mile for the first time and I feel Siyarafina would have won that race had she not missed it after working below the trainer's expectations.

    As long as Siyarafina gets a good position I think her turn of foot will be the key here and we could do with seeing a filly who might challenge Hermosa later in the season.

    The Group 2 Prix Hocquart looks a poor renewal. I would hardly even class it as a Group 3 race to be honest. Al Hilalee was punted in the 2000 Guineas but was diabolical. Down to Listed Company next time he was no match for Raise You, getting collared for second place late. I am not sure he really wants another 2F now and Raise You went on to be no factor in the French Derby. I want to be against Al Hilalee but the problem is that the rest of the field are very uninspiring as well. Khagan is clearly no world beater but at least he is progressing with each race and any more improvement puts him bang there. I could see him being the one to grind his way to victory in this soft looking Group 2. Al Hilalee looks poor value at the 7/4 I first saw. Khagan was 10/3 on that book and I will have a look around for prices tomorrow and probably back the Fabre colt.
     
    #123
  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Khagan is available at 9/2 this morning and he is the bet with the expectation that he might improve another little chunk and be staying on best.

    Al Hilalee has an official Handicap Rating of just 103 and to my eyes that is way low for a Favourite coming into a Group 2 race. That said, the race could easily be framed as a Handicap given the ratings of the entire field. Group 2 ? <whistle>

    Siyarafina has already beaten Commes and looks the more proven stayer despite there being stamina in Commes' pedigree. Channel needs to improve about a stone to get on the picture today but she's going the right way.

    I thought Platane was worth a small each-way bet. She had looked progressive but was awful last time out. That was not her true running and if she gets her mojo back she has a chance of placing. There was some 25/1 available but I thought that taking the 4th place concession was a safer option.

    3.05 Chantilly Platane 16/1 EW 1,2,3,4 places
     
    #124
  5. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Agree Entitle may be short of the necessary class, but her improvement from a Wolverhampton maiden to a 2nd in the Musidora was eyecatching. If she improves half as much again she'll have every chance of a place.
     
    #125
  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Well done with Channel Grade One. I felt she had quite a lot to find today but she did the business.

    Commes was perhaps a shade unfortunate but Sirayafina was just disappointing. It wasn't the draw because she was in a good place to strike from but her turn of foot simply wasn't there today and she looked fairly average at best on this evidence. The silly question posed by the Racing Post before the race as to whether she was the next Treve or Zarkava got the answer it probably deserved for the Hype Merchants. Siyarafina's earlier win from Commes suggests she should have won this race with something to spare and it was a bit disheartening to see them all in a bunch in another disappointing looking French Classic.

    Platane had a good spot but weakened disappointingly. The UK runners Entitle and Nausha were posted missing in another kick in the balls for the Musidora form. Underwhelming really and French Racing is looking very ordinary these past few seasons.

    The Going was reported as Soft last evening but with one race being run faster than standard and others very close to standard there is no way it was soft out there today.
     
    #126
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  7. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Commes was crying out for the trip and should stay 12f well, whereas Sarayafina will prove best at a mile, the way she was winning her races at a mile suggests the Coronation was the race for her but I can see why they went here after winning at 10f . As pointed out at the time, the Saint Alary was basically a 4f sprint as they went a crawl round in a typical french race, the classics are usually more strongly run and it was always going to be a different test for her today. Last time showed that she was not a Zarkava/Treve imo, and today confirms it 100%. I excpect to see her dropped back to a mile for the rest of the season.
     
    #127
  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    To be honest it looked a mediocre affair. The Racing Post assessor has cheated and gone back to rate Channel 99 for her previous start. The original rating was 95 and he's then added 10 lbs for today up to 109. The 3rd home has had a rise as well but even with that the Racing Post man has had to award Commes less than she ran to in the French Guineas. 2lbs covered the first six home on ratings today and a winning rating of 109 would hardly have many of the older horses worried.

    Just before the 3.50 Race I noticed that Sky Sports were still calling to going SOFT but the winning time was 0.39 sec FAST. Something is wrong there. I had earlier backed Khagan in the belief that it was soft and he ran a rallying race to be beaten two necks in third place after being a bit outpaced. Al Hilalee just held on from the Rouget horse who looked certain to reel him in but then downed tools and swerved across my selection at the last second. Soft Light looked a bit of a rogue today and once again the French jockeys let a UK rider dictate from the front. As John Francome once said "Some of these jockeys, if you took their brains out and put them back on the scales, they would still weigh the same"
     
    #128
  9. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    The perfect result:emoticon-0152-heart
     
    #129
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  10. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Poor run but Matematica could bounce back tonight at decent odds in the 6.45 Chantilly

    Each Way @ 11-1 [Paddy Power]
     
    #130

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Suphala was a flop in the French Guineas but take that run out and her short-head defeat at the hooves of Watch Me in the Prix Imprudence looks a whole lot better with Graffard's filly winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. I'll have a little on Suphala at 9/4 in a last chance saloon for her after getting off the mark for the season in Listed class last time.

    6.45 Chantilly Suphala 9/4
     
    #131
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  12. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    4th!
     
    #132
  13. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Is it going to be a Gosden day, a Charlton day or a French day?
    The Eugene Adam looks particularly weak. I would be pleased if Charlton nicked one of these.
     
    #133
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2019
  14. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Good start for Gosden. Could only manage 7th in the Oaks but wins a nice Group 2 prize as compensation.
     
    #134
  15. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    It's a Gosden day, as he takes the Grand Prix with Coronet, but Charlton (with his new stable jockey Jason Watson) takes the Prix Eugene Adam with Headman.
     
    #135
  16. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Been very impressed by Fabres Earthlight, 3 from 3 so far at 6f, loved the way he took the gap up the rail on his second run, always the mark of a good horse, and the form of his last win in a G3 puts him up with the best weve seen over here bar Godolphins other Shamardal colt Pinatubo. Hes out of a New Approach mare and you can tell, hes the spitting image of Dawn Approach, so hes bred to get a mile no problem but suspect if Grendels theory about the Morny is correct then maybe hes just a sprinter. I wont be opposing him any time soon, looks Group 1 class to me.

    Hes been put in at 25s for the Guineas and ill take that before the Morny on the off chance, im strongly against Pinatubo for the Guineas.
     
    #136
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2019
  17. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Well beaten but dropped into listed class tomorrow at Deauville [4.35]

    Win bet...currently 5-2
     
    #137
  18. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Matematica is a decent each way price for the Group 3 at Deauville today [2.50] @ 10-1
     
    #138
  19. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Unplaced
     
    #139
  20. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Job done in the Morny on ground that probably wasnt ideal, I ended up not backing him for the Guineas but very fair price available on him today, if he gets the mile which Fabre seems to think he will, and hes been able to beat a top 2yo like Raffle Prize at 6f then he could take some beating at that distance, he doesnt really strike me as an out and sprinter, I think hed get 7f no problem but we shall see.

    Raffle Prize boosted the Queen Mary form again, the 2nd from that race Kimari at 11/2 for the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint is looking one of the bets of the season, there is no way the US turf horses will live with her. My research of the sectionals early in the season showed that she was Wesleys Ward best chance at Ascot and that proved to be the case, she is up there with his good 2yos of the past and is being aimed at the Breeders Cup, could see her ending up a 6/4 shot on the night.
     
    #140
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