French Flat Season [2019]

Another result for the judges

 

Sottsass was quite impressive today but Persian King didnt stay and being by Siyouni, I dont see him getting 12f in the Arc. I thought Persian King was a very poor price today given the draw and the distance, but hell be hard to beat back at a mile.

 

I backed Persian King ages ago at 10/1 for today.

I still felt he was a good bet today and he saw everything else off bar one. It wasn't an ideal race for Persian King, he was out wide and more prominent than I wanted to see before being dropped back for cover. I didn't think he settled as well as he might but I don't think the draw was a factor. He probably came there earlier than I wanted to see but in the end the Rouget horse picked up and came by him in good style. It looked like a mile might be better for Persian King but he saw off some of the tipped up horses easily despite any stamina deficiency.

Zarkallani was a joke bet today. He came in a 90 rated maiden winner and ran below that moderate level. Alain De Royer-Dupre must have had too much Claret and Viagra the night he conceived the idea of running the son of Zarkava in the Derby a week after winning a maiden. 11/2 odds for Zarkallani were crazy over in France.

Surfman left with his tail between his legs and I must just be lucky in not fancying him at all today.

Talking about judges. It is a bit sad when someone who contributes zero to a thread comes in trolling other people's input. Is this the same judge who gave the last in both the Oaks and the Derby? Oh yes it is. New movie based on Sleepless In Seattle. Excrement In Epsom.

 

Terrific trainer Rouget. You would not see him running a maiden winner in the French Derby seven days after winning an awful maiden race. Alain De Royer-Dupre has depended on the patronage of the Aga Khan for much of his success. I much prefer Fabre and Rouget as the best trainers in France.

 

I dont claim to be anything other than good at bumpers. You write reams and reams about losers. You claim you can have a lot of losers because of your big priced winners. All I see is a string of ante post failures.
A lot on here love reading and a lot of effort is applied so you crack on fella.

 

Stay with the Bumpers is my advice.

 

Try putting up some winners is mine

 

Persian King did stay the 10 furlongs. The race readers’ comments “Outpaced by the winner, kept on” were correct. That said one mile is probably his optimum trip.

The other thing to take out of the race is the mediocrity of our 3 year old colts. Surfman [105] beat Kick on [109] and Raise you [105] he finished one length behind Mohawk [110]. To say that Surfman finished the race with his tail between his legs is somewhat disparaging- how then would you describe the performances of Kick on and Raise you? The problem with Surfman is that he hits a flat spot in his races, he then runs on – albeit at one pace- As I mentioned previously his dam was generally a 12 furlong horse, once having tried an extended 2 miles at Sandown. I believe that he now needs a minimum of 12 furlongs. He holds an entry for the King Edward V11 at ascot, as do many of those that ran in the Epsom Derby, although his participation is unlikely. He is going to be difficult to place given his current rating, a remark which applies to Kick On and Raise you. I would love him to be entered for a distance race like the Ebor, an easy track like York could be ideal.

 

Persian King seemed to pick up to go and win his race. He then failed to sustain that effort. Without the sectional times we are guessing as to whether the winner quickened better or just maintained his run while the other horse was slowing by comparison. Visually a horse can seem to be picking up more quickly than another but when looking at the sections the times will reveal that both horses were slowing down but that one was slowing down more than the other. Often, the final furlong is slower than the penultimate furlong. Horses have made their move and start giving everything in the battle to the line, both horses and jockeys get tense in the closing stages and we know that running in a relaxed manner is more efficient.

Surfman was not totally disgraced but it was quite a beating he took. I singled him out because there was more expectation on his part due to the Dante/Derby form tie up. I felt Raise You might run better than him but the Balding horse was very poor and, as you say, Kick On was disappointing as well. Kick On had looked vulnerable after seeing the form of Walkinthesand in Listed company. Kick On only had a neck to spare on the Hannon colt in the Fielden and that looked insufficient after seeing the runner up only 5th in the Heron Stakes at Sandown. The line through Walkinthesand also suggests that UAE Jewel would have struggled in the French Derby and Varian was probably wise in saving the colt for another target.

It is all very well "Tilting at windmills" but what benefit can there be for an overfaced colt running down the field in a tough race? Zarkallani was beaten 25 lengths and we learned nothing about his future possibilities because he was thrashed so badly. The trainer said that no other race really fitted in for the colt, so it must go down as bad planning to run him in a maiden a week before the French Derby. It probably hasn't helped that it took three goes to shed the maiden tag but if the French Derby was the target, then surely they could have run him as a maiden in a better quality race as a stepping stone to the Classic which was better spaced out than just a week.

Surfman is officially rated 105 and that mark is not likely to increase after the French Derby. If he was a feasible contender to win the French Derby he is by no means badly handicapped on 105 surely? It would seem sensible to try to exploit his mark now in Handicaps, rather than get rated higher and truly be stuck in no man's land?

 

I feel that Surfman’s initial rating for winning a bad race at Newcastle was a massive over reaction by the handicapper- The second in that race was Frequency code who was beaten 16 lengths in a class 5 on his next appearance, of the others in that Newcastle race Smeaton[64] was beaten in a class 6 next time in, what was ,a glorified seller. Given the nature of the Newcastle race I believe that Surfman should have been rated 95 and not 101.

The problem was compounded in the Dante for which he was the lowest rated horse. Sandwiched between TDH [126] seasonal reappearance, and Japan [111] badly in need of the race was- in retrospect a placing that may have flattered Surfman and a 4lb hike for a 5 length beating by Telecaster was wrong. He will be very difficult to place off a 105 mark.

 

Sottsass looks short for the Arc at 12/1.

The French Derby was run in a quick time and Andre Fabre was convinced Persian King didn't stay. Looking to Paris in October and it could be slower ground and 12F to take on. Sottsass is by Siyouni out of a Galileo mare and we all saw William Haggas' Maqsad run out of petrol in the Oaks. Maqsad is also by Siyouni and also out of a Galileo mare. I would say the forecast for Sottsass getting 12F must be quite doubtful.

I did notice that a horse who was ahead of Sottsass in the Prix La Force, Shaman, is entered in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot. He had started this season well winning on his comeback before landing the La Force trial where Sottsass was 5th. Shaman went on to be second to Persian King in the French 2000 Guineas and that form looks quite canny. In a St James Palace where Phoenix Of Spain is 2/1 and several others look short enough, I was thinking about Shaman at 20/1 but am not sure if he will travel. For me the St James Palace looks a bit confusing and the form perhaps a bit inflated by some assessors of the Guineas races.

 

Hermosa is not now running in the Prix Diane. O'Brien has said she will tackle the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot instead.

Siyarafina had gone out to 3/1 for the Prix Diane after O'Brien's original statement that his filly was going to run there but punters got a bum steer and the Hermosa bets are down the Swanee.

Siyarafina is now 5/4 Fav generally. I backed her at 5/1 and if she runs I will be happy. Getting the odds is always the easier part of the equation. Getting them to actually win the bloody thing is much tougher.

 

Agree and in my opinion Rouget is the better trainer than Fabre as he has no big owner behind him like the Aga or Godolphin

 

A couple of promising winners in Bowled Over and Duhail at Longchamp last Thursday.

Bowled Over is a Kingman filly trained by Francis Graffard and I was drawn to her because her trainer's stat for horses running to their form this past fortnight was 100% and his strike rate is currently 42%. Bowled Over is a May foal and she is only a month older than 3YO, while officially she turned 3 on the 1st of January. She quickened very nicely to win in good style with the slight concern being the poor run from Makmour, a Jean-Claude Rouget horse who was having a second bad day at the office since finishing runner up to Starmaniac in late March. Bowled Over looked worth a try in Listed/Group 3 company based on her second win in a two race career.

Duhail is a gelding son of Lope De Vega trained by Andre Fabre and he had won his maiden at one of the smaller French tracks, when coming away by seven lengths despite it looking like the race would do him good. Running in a conditions race at Longchamp second time out Duhail gave 3 lbs and a comprehensive beating to previous winner Markhor, quickening up to win in grand style over the 7F trip. It looks as if a mile should hold no fears for Duhail and he is surely due a rise in class now, after earning a rating of 100 from the Racing Post.

The pair looked like keeping the right side of for now.

 

Duhail's winning performance:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3841/

You can tell from a fair way out that the writing is on the wall for ultimate runner-up Markhor, who finished three and a half lengths clear of the third. I did see an article questioning whether Duhail might be French Classic material but I am not sure if geldings can run in their Classic races? I know they cannot run in UK Classic races.

Impressive in any case and interesting to see where he goes next.

 

A couple of highly promising two year olds at Saint-Cloud yesterday. It pretty much seems to be Soft at Saint-Cloud whatever the time of year and the only real variety is when it is Heavy.

Taking the soft going into consideration it was still impressive from both horses.

Arapaho is a son of Lope De Vega out of a Dansili mare and he is trained by Andre Fabre. Sitting handy in fourth place in the early stages of the 7F contest Arapaho started to close up with a couple of furlongs to go and once taking command he kept on pulling away to win by 3 lengths in good style. He looks sure to get a mile and if handling better ground he could be decent. His Topspeed figure of 66 wasn't bad for a debut. The race replay can be viewed here:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3851/

In the fillies race it was Jean-Claude Rouget's Simeen who scored in taking fashion over the same trip. Simeen is also by Lope De Vega, this time out of an Oasis Dream mare who was only rated about 80 but who won over 10F. Simeen sat in mid-division before working her way up on the wide outside with 400 metres to run. Shaken up the filly drew away under next to no encouragement from her jockey to win by three and a half lengths. I reckon the margin could have been six lengths at least had the jockey desired. Not as fast as the colt's race on a Topspeed of 54 but the easier winner of the two on the day. A mile will be no problem for Simeen and she looked very nice. Her race can be viewed here:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3852/


Obviously these races were for unraced horses but the two Lope De Vega youngsters looked promising and they are in the hands of master trainers. Interesting to see where they go next but their ability to handle soft could be an asset in France.