French Flat Season [2019]

Varian is talking about stepping Zabeel Prince up to 10F but I think that's a mistake. With the dearth of decent older milers I think the Queen Anne should be the call. Study Of Man was closing in towards the end of the D'Ispahan and Zabeel Prince will probably find tougher opponents in the 10F races.

For me Zabeel Prince would have a favourite's chance in the Queen Anne, so does the trainer want to see another of his horse's victims claim a top Royal Ascot prize while his fellow sits idle in his box?

Zarkallani was rated 90 by the Racing Post for winning his maiden race, so he has a fair bit to go yet. It was a bit odd that the filly who won the other maiden was only rated 79 when she carried exactly the same weight 9st 2lb and was only 0.09 sec slower. 11 lbs better by the colt? Really?

 

Don't see why 10 F should be a problem. Study of man was closing but The winner was just pushed out - jockey did not use his stick. On the subject of Varian I have just looked at the France galop website and UAE Jewel is not entered For te PDC on Sunday I wonder what is planned for this horse?

 

Until a horse has won at the trip in a Group 1, I would always have some doubt. In Zabeel Prince's case it seems odd that they would take this long to discover that he is a 10F horse. Sometimes the French races are not run at a strong pace and a truly run 10F could be different. It may also be that the ground could be different later in the season. It seems a shame that there is a winnable Queen Anne sitting there but they have their eyes elsewhere.

Zabeel Prince is also entered in the Prince Of Wales at Ascot and the Coral Eclipse. He could meet tougher opponents in those races at a distance he has yet to win at. The fact that he is a 14/1 shot for both of those contests tells its own story. Wouldn't it be more sensible to focus on a race with less question marks and lesser opponents? I would rather have my horse contesting the race he is most likely to win.

Oh well. Time will tell if they make the correct call with Zabeel Prince.

UAE Jewel is still learning and I doubt he was ready for a French Derby. He does hold an Eclipse entry but that is flying too high I think. For me it's crazy that the Racing Post have only 3 lbs between UAE Jewel and Persian King. The Varian colt just didn't beat much last time out and I think they should take their time with him. Rushing from Listed Class to meet older horses in an Eclipse is unrealistic. The colt has missed the Classics now, so they may as well take their time and step him up in stages.

Raise You is entered in the French Derby but it was only a Listed race he won last time despite it being a cosy success. The runner up came in rated 92 and they pushed him up to 99 to accommodate Raise You on 108. In theory another 7 lbs puts him up with Persian King but the Fabre colt seems to have his form played down time and again. Raise You is generally second Fav but I would still back Persian King if starting afresh on the race. You can get 11/8 on Persian King for the French Derby and that seems good value when you see Calyx going off at 2/13 Fav

 

I believe that Zabeel Prince will stay 10 furlongs but, in the highest company, well possibly. The race on Sunday was a strong group 1 There were five group 1 winner in that field. Study of Man french Derby- Intellogent Prix Jean Prat - Dream Castle Jebel Hatta-Wild Illusion Nassau Stakes and With You.
dSurfman hold dual entries. 2nd forfeit stage today

 

There were some good winners in the D'Ispahan as you say but Study Of Man has not won since the French Derby success and Intellogent has not won since his narrow win in the Prix Jean-Prat. Both horses were slaughtered by Waldgeist last time out and on collateral form Waldgeist would be fancied to beat Zabeel Prince in a 10F race. Dream Castle is a Meydan horse and even then he was awful behind Almond Eye when last seen. His form away from Meydan is nothing special. Wild Illusion and With You both ran below form and sometimes it doesn't work out for fillies returning at 4YO. I thought Zabeel Prince was more likely to have a finishing burst than Wild Illusion but the way the Godolphin filly ran it didn't come down to that.

In essence I think the D'Ispahan had good winners of individual races but nothing consistently sustained moving forward, The recent form just wasn't there for several of the contenders.

Zabeel Prince was actually a positive for the Queen Anne on Oddschecker this morning and perhaps they haven't ruled it out yet. Fingers crossed.

 

Andre Fabre has said Waldgeist goes for the Prince Of Wales at Royal Ascot.

With Enable and Sea Of Class heading the betting and Aidan O'Brien's Magical close on their heels with Derby winner Masar, plus Old Persian and Crystal Ocean in the betting, then you have to wonder about the logic of taking that field on with Zabeel Prince. I suspect they might wait to see how many of the big guns hold their ground and potentially switch to the Queen Anne. I think it would be sheer folly to take on a handful of horses of that calibre in the Prince Of Wales.

 

..and Zarkallani is declared to run in the French Derby on Sunday!

Interesting, and currently 25-1

 

Will Persian King see out the derby trip?

 

Persian King drawn 14 in the Prix du Jockey club

 

I have Persian King 10 lbs ahead of his field. 11/8 is a great price in my opinion. I can't see the trip being a problem. He won over a mile on softish ground on his second start at 2YO and the only time he has been beaten was when 7 and a half furlongs on good ground seemed too short on his debut. I felt that day that he was the one to follow going forward, rather than the winner Anodor.

I can't see the draw being a factor simply because Persian King has the class.

I think it is madness putting Zarkallani in at this level a week after his maiden win. He needs to find two stones in seven days to win this. Quotes of 16/1 are ridiculous value.

I could see Slalom bring up a 1-2 and Roman Candle is also criminally underrated here by the bookies. Roman Candle is a Group 2 trial winner rated 108 on RPR while Zarkallani is a maiden winner rated 90, yet some firms have Roman Candle 9 points bigger in the betting. That's madness as far as I am concerned.

 

I have backed Surfman for the Prix du Jockey club, but before I did I researched the dam, Simmering surf. She was a mare owned and trained by Peter Winkworth, until he retired- and was transferred to Roger Varian. After winning her maiden she only ever competed in Listed and group company, winning a 12 furlong group 3 at Haydock. She retired in 2012 with a rating of107.

As a broodmare she produced 3 offspring before her death. Kitesurf, who won 5 races including the Prix Vermille, Surfman who has won a couple of races, and a once raced tyo.

I have no doubt that Surfman will stay 10 furlongs- and probably 12, entry in the KE V11 at Ascot An easy track like York was not what Surfman needed. Forget the winner of the Dante, his run at Epsom was too bad to be true, Instead Look at the run of japan. I believe that Surfman will overturn the 1/1 favourite on Sunday.

 

I think Japan badly needed his Dante run. The colt ran moderately first time out last season and the Dante trip was probably too short for him. He was primed for Derby Day and the extra distance has helped him hit the frame in the Derby.

The Derby was a moderate renewal and the winner has received a lower than average winning rating from the Racing Post. A highly dubious stayer was second and probable Leger horse Broome was only a short head away in 4th place.

Persian King is going to be a different kettle of fish to Japan. He is a French 2000 Guineas winner on ground that he didn't like and to me he looks like he will stay the trip. Out of a Dylan Thomas mare, Fabre is taking some confidence from that side and also the fact that Kingman is getting runners who stay a bit further than he did.

Raise You is highly promising and Slalom is no mug either, so it's not just about outstaying Persian King for Surfman. The ground is forecast as being good at Chantilly and if it is I think Persian King will take all the beating. I would expect him to be delivered late and I cannot agree with the report that said his win in the French 2000 Guineas was "Hard fought", I felt he was in front for long enough that day, having claimed them comfortably enough from off the pace. He is a colt that the media and ratings assessors seem to crib time after time but a win here will surely see Persian King finally get a decent rating and a bit of credit.

Good luck with Surfman but I feel Raise You might be the best of the away runners.

 

Only 5th but is dropping in class at Chantilly today (1.30)

Win bet at 5-2

 

Beaten but could be a live outsider in the big race today (3.25)

Small each way @ 25-1

 

Raise You is very weak in the French Derby betting. Slalom is probably the best backed runner.

Persian King is 5 lbs clear on Racing Post ratings but they have consistently crabbed the colt's form from the outset. They had to go back and upgrade their figures for some of his previous runs as he kept on winning races.

Andre Fabre revealed that he didn't particularly want to take Slalom to the French Derby but simply didn't have another alternative race for the horse. He's obviously a player as an unbeaten colt but the trainer's comments don't quite inspire confidence.

I think Persian King is an excellent bet at 13/8.

 

Viewing on Sky Racing at the moment.

 

To Longchamp for the Grand Prix de Paris (12f) or a wee sleep until early September?