French Flat Season [2019]

Shahnaza seemed to have the field covered but Morgan Le Faye was going even better and swept away comfortably. It looked a weak Group Three but Fabre's filly won with plenty in hand and looked true Group class. On this evidence Shanaza will struggle to make her mark in good races this season.

Still waiting for a French three year old to really show something in a trial. Hopefully Suphala can be the one to step forward in the Imprudence. She's unlikely to be fully wound up for that race but I have had a few quid on the nose for her in the 1000 Guineas because at 8/1 the favourite it's wide open and horses like Iredessa at 16/1 make zero appeal to me and Suphala is twice the odds on double carpet.

1000 Guineas Suphala at thirty three to one. (The three key does not work on this keyboard)

 

Runs today at Chantilly [2.35]

Should win easily..but is 4-7

 

This is a modest enough starting point for Matematica. It leaves things tight to go maiden/trial/classic if that is the expected path to the French Guineas. It would be a bit of an ask to go from a maiden straight to a Classic.

The Boussac Matematica was second in looked a bit weak and they finished in a heap that day.

Obviously as a maiden rated 109 on Racing Post figures, Matematica is going to be tough to beat but I thought they might have gone to one of the trials and then see if she was good enough for the French Guineas.

Just a race to watch.

 

Won @ Evens

 

Easy win for Matematica but the opposition looked very weak. Second and third came in with more than two stone to find on RPR.

I expected to see Matematica in the Prix De La Grotte at Longchamp on Sunday. Boussac winner Lily's Candle is entered there and it would have been an interesting rematch between the pair. A bit odd that they felt the need to take in a maiden with Matematica, she is clearly way better than that and I would rather have found out more about the horse today.

My first instinct was that you could not have rated Matematica much more than about 90 for that race today and the Racing Post later awarded her 86. That figure makes her running to a stone and a half less than the Boussac form and no more than a bit of work at home required.

Bit of a gift at Evens. I was offered 1/2 this morning and walked away oblivious of the later drift.

 

Fabre said Epic Hero could run in the Craven at Newmarket, but needs rain

 

Suphala was 4/1 on the Ze Turf price guide last night. She has ground to make up with the best of the field today and this is a race she must win well to be considered for the Newmarket Guineas. Fabre talked early doors about her perhaps going for the UK version, perhaps the owner being Lady Bamford has been part of the direction they are taking.

No 4/1 available on Suphala this morning and 7/4 with SkyBet was the best available, with Evens elsewhere. Jet Setteuse seems a bit overpriced at 10/1 for today but I am not sure if I will play or just watch in the hope that Suphala can put down a marker for the Guineas. The Ze Turf race preview had Suphala well down their forecast for the race, failing to place in their top four! Not a positive from them then.

The Djebel does not inspire me and I'll be leaving that one alone.

 

Suphala was disappointing for me, I don't think she has made sufficient physical progress from last year.

Persian King finally appears tomorrow in the Prix De Fontainebleau where he will clash with stablemate Epic Hero in the best race for 3YO's thus far in France. The plan was to keep them apart but fears of faster ground at Newmarket meant that they meet in a race where we should find out the pecking order.

 

The Prix De La Grotte is also run tomorrow, Boussac winner Lily's Candle is the forecast favourite but the beaten favourite from that Boussac, Rocques, reopposes and Rouget has Montviette, who won her first two starts before a narrow second in a Group 3 on her third start.

In the easier looking D'Escoville race Rouget saddles Justfirstlady, who won well first time out. The race has not worked out well but she did destroy them that day and it will be interesting to see how she comes forward from that promising debut.

 

Justfirstlady though unplaced was given an awful lot to do

 

Very disappointing standard of French Racing again this season. It's been a few years since they had a really good horse and they lie well behind the British and Irish runners for now.

It says a lot that Persian King is head and shoulders best in France but still uncertain to come over for Newmarket's 2000 Guineas.

Justfirstlady's debut win has worked out awfully and I have lost a fair but of faith in her trainer Jean-Claude Rouget this past couple of seasons. He used to be right in the mix but after a virus hit the yard he hasn't been the same since. De Royer-Dupre is in a similar slump while Freddy Head seems to get promising first timers but they don't progress. It's pretty much Fabre on his own at the moment and even he seems to lack the talent in the yard to raid the UK races with the regularity he used to.

Persian King was impressive and I hope he can reward my early faith with a win in the French Derby. He was 10/1 and is now 7/2 for a race where I see little danger to him. Slalom was introduced into the French Derby betting at 8/1 but I feel Persian King is the superior horse by 10 bs.

Munitions landed the Prix Djebel, yet again a Fabre colt, and he earned a RPR of 113. Persian King's rating is 115 with the Racing Post and I reckon having Munitions just 2 lbs lower is complete and utter bollocks. If the two colts meet, Persian King will be well odds on and the small gap in ratings will be exposed for the nonsense it is.

Lily's Candle was favourite for the Prix De La Grotte but was stone last of the nine runners. Looking back at he Boussac win, she was awarded a RPR of 109, which was a 12 lbs rise on her previous form. Assessors seem obsessed with giving higher ratings just because races have a Group 1 status, when the fact is that some renewals are poor. The latest candidate for this is the Prix De La Grotte itself. Racing Post figures have winner Castle Lady up 29 lbs to 110 and runner up Imperial Charm up 20 lbs to 106. I am calling bull-plop on those figures and will be watching to see if future events back my thinking up.

 

The run of Epic Hero in 2nd can be upgraded, as it came to light after the race that the horse had a setback recently

 

Andre Fabre stated that Epic Hero clearly doesn't stay a mile and that he feels the colt is a 7F horse. Keeping things in perspective though, he would not have troubled Persian King at any trip and I suspect they will keep the horse to slightly lesser company.

 

Almond Eye will not be going for the Arc say connections.

 

Persian King is nearly favourite for the 2000 Guineas now. Godolphin seem to have little else for the race. From 16/1 not so long ago Fabre's colt is 5/1 for Newmarket now.

 

Fabre says it is 90% certain that Persian King runs in the French Guineas. That leaves Royal Marine as Godolphin's best shot and I think he's unlikely to be involved.

Today sees Freddy Head's Motamarris at Longchamp. He was most impressive on debut, winning 7 lengths and despite that margin a couple of those in behind went on to win maidens, which is encouraging because big margin winners often result in nothing capable of winning a race among the also rans.

I expect Motamarris to follow up but he's a best price of 11/10, though as short as 1/2.

Siyarafina also reappears today after a taking debut. Hard to know what she beat but she did it nicely last time. Commes represents Rouget and her last run was second to Suphala, which probably narrowly represents the strongest form so far. With Sarayafina odds-on Commes might appeal at 13/2 but her trainer is lacking good firepower this past couple of seasons. Andre Fabre's Siyouni debutante gets 5 lbs from the others but at 10/1 it seems there is little expectation. Just a race to watch I reckon.

Fabre brings Deep Impact's Muette to make his debut today and the sire has done well with the few European runners we have seen so far. Stablemate Hawkamah is favourite at 7/4 compared to Muette on 9/2 though.

Fabre also supplies a warm favourite in Melicertes who won narrowly from Zarkallani when they debuted. His price varies greatly, odds on in places but available at 6/4. Shendam disappointed me last time and I doubt the challenge to Melicertes is strong.

My two for the day are Motamarris at 11/10 and Melicertes at 6/4

Longchamp 3.25 Melicertes 6/4

Longchamp 4.00 Motamarris 11/10

Win double both prices SkyBet

 

Melicertes seemed to have the field covered but Eagle Hunter finished stronger to beat him. Graffard's horse was pumped 6 lengths when runner up for the third time last time out and had a modest rating. I really felt Melicertes might be the one horse in the race today who could turn out decent but he seems pretty ordinary and it wasn't a great boost for Zarkallani. More mediocre French colts I feel.

Sayarafina was very impressive again today. As I had suspected Commes was the one most likely to be a danger but she was not in the same class as De Royer-Dupre's filly. Sayarafina tracked them and came from off the pace to pick them off easily with a nice burst of acceleration. As far as I am concerned she is the one they all have to beat in the French 1000 Guineas. Pity there are no prices anywhere.

There are odds for the Prix Diane though and I think Sayarafina will stay the extra 2F so have had a bet at 5/1 for that. I was surprised they didn't cut her to shorter than that after what was an impressive win.

In the French 2000 Guineas, Persian King is favourite at 13/8 but that's too short for me.

Prix Diane Sayarafina 5/1

 

Motamarris looked to have been given plenty to do but he picked up steadily and reeled them in a shade comfortably in the end. It looked like he will get a mile and a half but that was not a great race today.

I was surprised odds against was available (Returned 2/5 in France) but getting 11/10 didn't help with the Fabre colt disappointing earlier. The winner there, Eagle Hunter, used to be with Hugo Palmer and was rated 81 on RPR, his defeat on his first start for Graffard was assessed as 74 with the Racing Post and a but disappointing Fabre's colt could not see off a horse of that calibre.

Oh well, the plan was good but the horse wasn't. Happy Easter.

 

Siyarafina is 9/4 for the French Guineas. Not a big price but she's the clear best in my opinion. Alex Pantall's Castle Lady is generally next best but I think she was well overrated on 110 by the Racing Post.

Alain De Royer-Dupre was like the proverbial canine with two waste water outlets after today's show and it is hard to imagine that the Aga Khan will baulk at the thought of paying 36000 Euros to supplement Siyarafina for the French Guineas.

De Royer-Dupre commented that his filly had to quicken off no pace today and the stopwatch apparently had her doing 10.77 sec and 11.15 sec for the 7th and 8th Furlongs of the race.

 

Excellent card at Longchamp today

In the first race [1pm] having a bet on the Al Shaqab filly

Excellency

Each Way [2 places 1/4] @ 6-1 [Paddy Power]