French Flat Season [2019]

Runs tomorrow at Fontainebleau

 

Sedrina is roughly 11/1 on the Ze Turf odds guide for what will be the 1.55 Race in UK time. Al Tariq is about 5/2 Fav on their forecast prices.

I think Al Tariq looks vulnerable with his best run on RPR in four starts being a 7th of 7 in the Group Prix Des Chenes behind winner Anodor. That run got a rating of 90 but I am a little dubious on that figure. Unlucky to still be a maiden, having lost one race by a short head and another by a nose, it has to be weighed against those races being nothing special.

Youmna is interesting for Alex Pantall after a second on his only start. He was thrashed by Motamarris to the tune of 7 lengths and improvement from that should put him in the picture here. At the least he should give us some perspective on the Freddy Head trained Motamarris's ability.

Cardino was second at Deauville in late November to Jean-Claude Rouget's Makmour but that race has worked out very poorly and I don't like the look of the form.

Fontainebleau is not a course I place bets at and it's not one I like to see a horse headed to if it has aspirations of being a really good one. I will just watch tomorrow's race.

The Saint-Cloud meeting on Saturday looks potentially more interesting with some well bred newcomers from the bigger stables entered. The earlier mentioned horse in the thread Starmaniac is also entered up at Saint-Cloud in a six runner affair where he meets some previous winners, including Makmour who was mentioned earlier in this post. With Makmour's race not working out to date, the one I prefer is Shendam, who won at Longchamp on his sole start last October. He won by three lengths that day and while the form is not stellar, the second and third both won on their only start since. Like Makmour, Shendam is entered in the Epsom Derby and I like him for Saturday's race if the odds are suitable.

 

9-1 Sedrina with Ladbrokes, so small each way

 

Ran better but frustratingly just missed out on the place money

 

Watching race back again, she travelled well but ran green when asked to go on. Then got intimidated by the winner coming across her inside the final furlong which probably cost the horse 3rd place

Is still a work in progress, and will win races

 

Runs today [1.50] and I Expect him to win. Currently 15-8

 

Won

 

Zarkallani runs today in the 1.25 at Saint-Cloud.

No odds at present but the Ze Turf prices forecast has him Fav at just bigger than 5/2.

Fabre has one entered but the most interesting one on breeding for me outside of Zarkallani is Pascal Bary's Tiki, a Galileo half Brother to Study Of Man, who was also trained by Bary to land the French Derby last season.

 

Opening odds of 13-8 [Bet 365]

Small Win bet

 

Too short for me to get involved on the Fav. The only info I have is that Blue Cup is supposed to be rated by Fabrice Chappet so it was a couple of quid each-way on him at 7/1 for something to watch.

Blue Cup 7/1 here.

The next race sees Khagan, a Le Havre half brother to Sacred Life who looked special early doors but tailed off a bit afterwards. Interesting for Andre Fabre in the 2.00 Race at 11/4 perhaps.

 

2nd...looked sure to win when hitting the front but Soumillion was not in Thunder Snow mode!

Looked a decent race though and a nice debut run by the Aga horse

 

Jockey dismounted after the race suggesting Zarkallani had a physical problem, which explains why he did not apply pressure close home

Hopefully the colt is Ok

 

Good start for Zarkallani, maybe the jockey was unaware of how well the Fabre horse was finishing. Blue Cup was nothing special but Khagan looked impressive in the following race for Fabre.

Epic Hero is set to go in the Djebel and Suphala in the Imprudence for Fabre while Persian King is entered in the Prix De La Force.

 

Persian King does not run in the Prix De La Force.

Disappointing looking trials at Longchamp.

 

Surprised Siyarafina wasn't mentioned on here for her debut win at St. Cloud yesterday. Interesting filly being by Pivotal (who after a few flat years has made a big comeback) out of an Azamour mare who is a half-sister to Siyouni (also by Pivotal). So Siyarafina is very closely bred to that good colt (and stallion): if only it was always so easy.
She moved smoothly throughout the race and accelerated away from her field under little persuasion. Obviously the value of winning a race for debutants is hard to gauge, but she could only win it well. Unlike this filly Siyouni was a very good 2yo and a pretty good 3yo so a lot more could be expected of her. He was very much a miler and though this filly is slightly more stoutly bred she may be similar, though I guess the Prix de Diane would be a possible target.One to keep an eye on.

Unlike a lot of Aga Khan's horses this is not a long-established Aga family, just 2 generations. Siyarafina is the mare's second foal.

 

I have been pretty ill these past few days and missed the Saint Cloud meeting entirely.

Sarayafina was very impressive and slaughtered her field really. The Racing Post gave her their typical cop-out rating of 80 for her win but that's nonsense in my opinion. I am not sure how The Racing Post can even give a rating anyway, considering that they have not yet got a figure for Epic Hero winning on the 19th March in a race where there was much more collateral form available than there is for unraced horses.

Here is Sarayafina's race for anyone interested:-

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3698/

It was a cosy success and she holds entires in the Group 1 Prix St Alary and The Prix Diane. Trainer Alain De Royer-Dupre has had it lean for a while but he seems to be back on track a bit and he used to be pretty reliable with the Aga Khan's maiden winners progressing to Group class. Sarayafina seems likely to be very decent, especially with a bit of a dearth of talent in the three year old fillies so far.

Iredessa and Happen were put in their place easily by Lady Kaya today but are leading lights in the Oaks betting. Happen is by War Front and ran at 7F today, 20/1 for the Oaks now, really? As Les Dennis would say "I'll give you the money myself"

 

Sorry to hear that Grendel. Hope you feel better.

 

Epic Hero is NOT in the field of 7 left in the Prix Djebel and the race looks uninspiring to me.

Suphala is in the field of 8 currently in the Imprudence with stablemate Lucky Jolie also entered. Karl Burke has Mistress Of Love entered but that appears ambitious for a filly rated 86 after four races.

 

Thanks. Didn't even watch the Grand National today.

 

Was intending backing Shaman and Shahnaza as a double today but didn't get organised in time.

Shaman was 10 lbs clear of his field on Racing Post figures and had the advantage of a winning run this season. 7/4 seemed fair enough and, of course he won without the burden of my cash. It was tight though and he didn't win by as much as the figures suggested.

Shahnaza was quite well regarded last year but didn't manage to win when upped in class. Still, she ran to a decent level in several races, sometimes quite highly tried and this looks quite a weak Group Three today. Any progress from last season should see her right in the mix today and at 5/2 I feel she holds a solid chance against fairly exposed opponents.

Shahnaza 5/2 is lower than the odds on the French sites with Fabre's Morgan Le Faye edging favouritism there. The Fabre horse is five now though and I felt Shahnaza had a bit more scope and can hopefully win some Group Three races at least this season.