Frankel to Face Maximum of 9 in the Juddmonte International

You know what would be interesting: Somehow find the imagination to picture that Frankel runs in 2nd. Hard I know but just do it. The horse that beats him and ruins his unblemished record is none other than Twice Over. Camera pans to Sir Henry Cecil, Prince Khalid Abdullah and Lord Grimthorpe.

Over to you now guys, what's their reaction?

 

A real homelover mate, frets just to be away at a racecourse stable overnight. Enjoys being home in Newmarket with his buddies!

 

How about they claim Twice Over is actually Frankel - you dopey bastards

 

Nervous excitement ahead of Wednesday's feature, I would hate to see Frankel beat but this is certainly no penalty kick. On all known form hes the best horse in the field but weather he hits that invisible wall 1 furlong out after a blistering 10 1/2 furlongs is what makes this race what it is, I do think he'll get the trip rather easily looking at how hes relaxing and finishing his races, Hes not stopping at the mile mark is he? And his Dam is proving rather versatile at stud...

I had a quick gander at Rip Van Winkle's pedigree aswell, Galileo's only winner to date of the Juddmonte and he too was out speedy family on the dam side - Stravinsky a top sprinter in himself and looking at his stud results he seems to produce speedier types rather than stayers, But the infleunce of Galileo clearly took its mark on Rip Van Winkle. On pedigree alone you'd have to be hopeful with Frankel... The Galileo/Danehill cross looks pretty versatile!

 

Seeing as though Lord Grimthorpe nearly sold Twice Over to a stud before this season only for Henry Cecil to put a stop to that I think Lord Grimthorpe and possibly Khalid Abdullah would be heavily deflated by defeat to the Juddmonte flag bearer. Henry Cecil Im not so sure, I think he'd also be deflated a little by the loss to his champ - Twice Over seems a firm favourite with Cecil. We have to remember Twice Over along with Midday started the revival of Sir Henry Cecil after going 5 years without a Gr1. I think he'd feel a sense of happiness for Twice Over. I'd be absolutely amazed if Twice Over at the age of 7 could beat Frankel though... Absolutely amazed!

 

Sri Putra 50/1

 

I know of several studs that are after Twice Over, both inside and outside of Europe. I can't see them letting him go unless Sir Henry says so though. He's described the horse as his best friend.

Istabraq, a little while ago I looked into the Galileo/Danehill cross and whilst there have been plenty of horses bred on the cross to stay up to 1m2f, there have been very few to stay more than 1m4f. I'll see if I can find it again.

 

Finally found it!

"with regards to him staying 1m4f, it was pointed out to me yesterday, in light of the fact that MARS has been made Derby favourite for next year, that of the 48 runners to make it to the racecourse by Galileo out of Danehill mares, 23 have attempted to run over 12f or further. Of these just 4 have won (3 of them over hurdles/fences) and only 7 have managed to place. To me, those statistics suggest that the vast majority of horses bred on this cross will not stay 12f."

 

But, PN, is it not a big plus that his full brother clearly does stay the trip or does it not quite work like that?

 

I'm afraid it doesn't work like that! They are two very different animals - Noble Mission was much later in maturing than Frankel and the later maturing animals seem, anecdotally, to stay further- look at NH horses that don't even see the racecourse until at least the back end of their 3yo year.

On a purely genetic level, full-siblings actually only share, on average, about 50% of the same genes: horses carry 64 chromosomes (32 pairs) so the odds of 2 full siblings carrying the exact same genetic make-up is 2 to the power of 64, which is (according to the Internet) 1 in 18,446,744,073,709,551,616

 

How many of those genes contribute to performance and what are the odds of that 50% all being performance related?

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Ron:

 

I read somewhere that when asked to nominate a favourite performance by one of his charges, Sir Henry Cecil suggested the 1999 International Stakes saunter by Royal Anthem. I wonder if by four o’clock on Wednesday, that opinion might have been changed.

I am not looking at Frankel’s breeding for indications that he will stay ten furlongs. The horse has settled much better in his races this term and his style of racing gives no indication that he is stopping after a mile. He will stay and he is officially a stone or more superior to all of his opponents.

I expect that Tom Queally will settle in behind the pace and will throw down his challenge between the three pole and the two. A couple of quick furlongs of Frankel acceleration will allow him to stride home to the adulation of the crowd.

My suspicion is that the Ballydoyle plan will be to use both pacemakers to try and create a searing test of stamina to aid St Nicholas Abbey; however, I expect Bullet Train will run his usual race for his stablemate and their efforts will be in vain.

If it does not go to plan and I look a Muppet by Wednesday night, it will be Statler or Waldorf.

 

Can't see any duplicate posts Oddy.

 

I don't half wonder if Coolmore aren't running SNA as a sort of yardstick to work out if Camelot would have any chance at against Frankel on Champions Day. If SNA runs to around 4l they can then work out how much better Camelot is over 10f and also, with his weight-for-age-allowance, if he'd have a chance. The WFA allowance is at it's most useful right at the end of the season as shown so often in the Arc.

 

Probably George. Hope Main Sequence doesn't let down the Derby form. If Camelot is pitched against Frankel in the Champion it will be interesting to see which one gets pulled before the race.