FPP to take full control

[Draig]

I've done so a number of times so I'm more than happy to do so, I'm happy that you've engaged in good faith the last few days.

My thought is that the biggest variable is Donald staying or Donald going. It's one of the only things he can control. While he's insistent on going as a matter I'd principle, I think its 80% he leaves (bizarrely) and 19.9% he sells to someone else, with a 0.1% chance that FPP change their mind and go all out to own a majority share in the club.

If we keep winning, a more likely outcome is 80% he stays, 19.9% someone else makes him an offer based on promotion and he sells, and 0.1% FPP change their mind and go all out to own a majority share in the club.

They've got the exact deal I think they wanted from day one. They can own the club incrementally in a way that suits them with zero risk. I don't think Donald convinced them to do that deal, I think they wanted it that way. They're simply too big and good to have been cajoled into a deal they didn't want.

So I think they do want to own us, but in a few years time, and as things stand, they have that exact deal in action. The only person that wants that to change is Stewart Donald and he doesn't seem to be able to make it happen if that leak yesterday is anything to go by, because it reads as a pathetic attempt to get a third party to up their bid based on a patently false idea of FPP making a bid to own us outright today, which my opinion is that they haven't offered up to this point.

So you are 99.9% convinced FPP won't buy the club in 2020?

 

[Owld Feller]

Despite all the champions league finals appearances by German and Spanish teams it really is baffling that it works and worse all those exceptional players who are happy to leave the likes of city, united, spurs et al when barca and reL come calling.

When I don't fully understand how something works and then another can't explain it I find it comforting to learn that it wasn't just me being 'thick'.

Many thanks for your reassurance on that.

 

[The Berk]

Maybe. I’m an ex-pat supporter who gets to a game every three years or so. My opinions are worth sod all tbh!

Three and a half years is the cut off mate.

 

[Arlyman]

I don't think that will ever happen.

In essence the 25 million that SD took out of the club and gave to short was to pay the outstanding SBC (i think) loan. The 25 million was always going there however it had to go into SAFC's accounts as per Premier League rules.

Which means that SD actually paid 15 million (renegotiated down to 12m).

SD will have put more money into the club over the last year and a half and will therefore want to recoup some of that money.

FPP have loaned/invested 10 million and i think that is about 50% of what they value it at currently (purely a guess)

I agree with you on this but it makes the SD valuation of 40M or 35M absolutely ridiculous when the club sold for 12M last year. Maybe the 9M/15M valuation is correct. That would fit the idea that FPP have loaned their valuation of the club (hence why they get the whole club if the loan is not paid back), but might go higher if the use of the loan results in promotion/higher value for the club. The 35M-40M only makes sense

 

[Arlyman]

in the context where the buyer would want a substantial amount of it to paid back into the club. I can't see anybody paying that just as profit to SD

 

[Owld Feller]

He won't see this of course as he has me on ignore

He posted that he'd done the same to me, then replied to my posts again.

 

[Bob Cheval]

I agree with you on this but it makes the SD valuation of 40M or 35M absolutely ridiculous when the club sold for 12M last year. Maybe the 9M/15M valuation is correct. That would fit the idea that FPP have loaned their valuation of the club (hence why they get the whole club if the loan is not paid back), but might go higher if the use of the loan results in promotion/higher value for the club. The 35M-40M only makes sense

He wants to sell the club for £40m but Madrox also owes the club £25m. If someone owes you £50 and you buy something from them for £60, you just give them a tenner.

Same situation here, any sale will also include the loan to Madrox being paid back.

 

[Ozzymac]

He wants to sell the club for £40m but Madrox also owes the club £25m. If someone owes you £50 and you buy something from them for £60, you just give them a tenner.

Same situation here, any sale will also include the loan to Madrox being paid back.

Forgive my ignorance Bob,

With all the numbers that have been thrown about, where does the 25m he owes the club come from. I thought the 25m was given to Short as he cleared the SBC debt as part of the deal, in other words a club debt which was factored into the original deal.

If Short didn't pay the debt then the club would have had to once SD took over and the parachute payments would have been used anyway.

Obviously i must be missing something

 

[Kittenmittons]

Forgive my ignorance Bob,

With all the numbers that have been thrown about, where does the 25m he owes the club come from. I thought the 25m was given to Short as he cleared the SBC debt as part of the deal, in other words a club debt which was factored into the original deal.

If Short didn't pay the debt then the club would have had to once SD took over and the parachute payments would have been used anyway.

Obviously i must be missing something

*gets out whiteboard*

Short version is he actually agree to use his own cash to pay the SBC loan, with the club as a sort of guarantor. He ended up using that guarantor (the parachute payments) so now he has created a debt of approx. £25m that his company, Madrox, owes to us.

In some way, that has to be factored into the purchase, either by someone agreeing to buy Madrox and take the debt on, him wiping it, or alternative arrangements. Basically, it's a pain in the arse for him.

 

[Kittenmittons]

So you are 99.9% convinced FPP won't buy the club in 2020?

That's just my opinion but yeah, not that I would ever say that % is mathematically calculated

Basically FPP don't have to do anything to keep the deal that they were clearly happy to do in November (which long term may end with them owning us and comes with no risk). Unless their position has changed, I think reading between the lines, they have no intention of making a bid for the majority and Donald is using their presence to drive the price up with someone else.

 

[Smug in Boots]

I've done so a number of times so I'm more than happy to do so, I'm happy that you've engaged in good faith the last few days.

My thought is that the biggest variable is Donald staying or Donald going. It's one of the only things he can control. While he's insistent on going as a matter I'd principle, I think its 80% he leaves (bizarrely) and 19.9% he sells to someone else, with a 0.1% chance that FPP change their mind and go all out to own a majority share in the club.

If we keep winning, a more likely outcome is 80% he stays, 19.9% someone else makes him an offer based on promotion and he sells, and 0.1% FPP change their mind and go all out to own a majority share in the club.

They've got the exact deal I think they wanted from day one. They can own the club incrementally in a way that suits them with zero risk. I don't think Donald convinced them to do that deal, I think they wanted it that way. They're simply too big and good to have been cajoled into a deal they didn't want.

So I think they do want to own us, but in a few years time, and as things stand, they have that exact deal in action. The only person that wants that to change is Stewart Donald and he doesn't seem to be able to make it happen if that leak yesterday is anything to go by, because it reads as a pathetic attempt to get a third party to up their bid based on a patently false idea of FPP making a bid to own us outright today, which my opinion is that they haven't offered up to this point.

"They've got the exact deal I think they wanted from day one. They can own the club incrementally in a way that suits them with zero risk."

"0.1% FPP change their mind and go all out to own a majority share in the club."

Thanks, although I don't know how those two things can co-exist.

 

[Kittenmittons]

"They've got the exact deal I think they wanted from day one. They can own the club incrementally in a way that suits them with zero risk."

"0.1% FPP change their mind and go all out to own a majority share in the club."

Thanks, although I don't know how those two things can co-exist.

Ah, obviously the latter means they have to change their mind about the original deal and decide to buy us immediately.

The former means they continue with the convertible loan that one day (everyone hopes) leads to good things happening and them owning more of the club.

 

[Kittenmittons]

Also I've edited my post because I was half cut and didn't notice the error. Should be '80% he sells to someone else, 19.9% he stays and 0.1% FPP'

 

[Smug in Boots]

Ah, obviously the latter means they have to change their mind about the original deal and decide to buy us immediately.

The former means they continue with the convertible loan that one day (everyone hopes) leads to good things happening and them owning more of the club.

So you're saying FPP are still very much involved and a takeover may just be a matter of time.

If that's the case then we agree, I've been told point blank that their position hasn't changed since September.

As I'm told they're not interested in being part owners, minor investors or lenders because there's little profit, fun or kudos to be had.

They want to own an English football club and aren't currently looking elsewhere, at least nothing's been heard ...

... as things stand, we're the only one they're involved with.

 

[Porterfield73]

steady on lads, you two might end up in agreement if you're not careful!

 

[Kittenmittons]

So you're saying FPP are still very much involved and a takeover may just be a matter of time.

If that's the case then we agree, I've been told point blank that their position hasn't changed since September.

As I'm told they're not interested in being part owners, minor investors or lenders because there's little profit, fun or kudos to be had.

They want to own an English football club and aren't currently looking elsewhere, at least nothing's been heard ...

... as things stand, we're the only one they're involved with.

My position has always been the same. The convertible loan allows them to come on as minority owners, but I doubt that's their long term aim. I think in their ideal world it goes:

We get promoted to the Championship and Donald earns their confidence

FPP convert this loan to equity of around 25%

If they still want to minimise risk, they do another loan of a bigger amount that they can convert if we get to the premier league.

Either way, 'minority owners' is just a pathway to being a majority owner one day and I agree with your sentiment. Because of the way this deal is structured, it's something they'd be if they converted it, but I think the only thing we differ on is timescales. I don't think they're going to make an outright bid for a majority of shares for a while, and if Donald is adamant he's selling the club in the next 3 weeks, it could balls up our chances with FPP sadly.

 

[Kittenmittons]

steady on lads, you two might end up in agreement if you're not careful!

I think we agree generally! Tis a Christmas miracle.

 

[Magnus]

He wants to sell the club for £40m but Madrox also owes the club £25m. If someone owes you £50 and you buy something from them for £60, you just give them a tenner.

Same situation here, any sale will also include the loan to Madrox being paid back.

So if that’s right and he’s knocked his asking price down to 35m, 25m of that goes back into the club so that leaves 10m because who ever is stumping up the 35m will be getting 25m straight back into the club to play with
FPP have paid the 10m so really all we need now if for them to put the 25 into the club and it’s a done deal

 

[Smug in Boots]

steady on lads, you two might end up in agreement if you're not careful!

I think we can all agree that FPP have done due diligence, flown over to see us play, visited the AOL, attended a board meeting, invested way more than anyone else, backed Donald into a corner, etc, etc.

That'll do for a start ....

 

[BigPete]

Feel a lot more confident reading the past few pages like good posts cheers

I've always thought we won't find out till end of season anyway as obviously which division we are in makes a huge difference price wise.