Just a thread for any early flat bets to be discussed. I have noticed what could be an interesting bet for the Dubai World Cup, Maximum Security 10/1 with Skybet. Gary West initially said they would forgo the prize money on offer in Dubai to run in America, but that was before the recently created Pegasus World Cup prize fund was reduced from 9m to 3m, he has since said that the horse is now quite likely to got to the Middle East for the new Saudi Cup race instead. "Cutting the purse to $3 million is an absolute game-changer. I wasn't thinking about the Saudi Cup, but why should I run for $3 million when I can run for $20 million four weeks later? That's a substantial change, and we don't know what we're going to do," West said. "There's now a better than 50/50 chance we'll go to the Saudi race. You don't get a horse like Maximum Security that often, and when you have a chance to be one of the favorites in the richest race in the world, you have to consider it." "They changed the game, they changed the rules. He's in Florida and will train like he's going to run in the Pegasus, but I don't know if he will. I'm disappointed in the timing. You don't have people ship in for the race and do this," Gargan said. "I'd rather be fourth for $20 million than third for $3 million. I can't believe they cut the purse like that. I come down here all pumped up about running in the race, and now it feels like a flat tire. "I was disappointed in the way it was handled. This should have come out two months ago." The Saudi Cup is scheduled for February, a month before the Dubai World Cup, and the temptation would surely be to stay over there and go to Meydan for the 12m on offer, and even in the event that this is all bluster, and the horse runs in the intended target of the Pegasus at Gulfstream where he is unbeaten, the timing is perfect to go to Meydan after that. Quite risky in terms of him actually turning up, but the horse is absolutely made for the front runners paradise at Meydan and hes the best dirt horse in the world imo, has looked a bit of a monster every time hes been on the track and has only lost once in 8 runs, 4 from 4 in G1s and proven over a testing 10f at Churchill, the favourite with some bookies McKinzie is not a 10f horse and for all hes a very good horse, hes not a superstar. Absolutely destroyed the BC Dirt Mile winner Spun To Run in his latest start. Ladbrokes have cut Maximum Security to 4/1 fav since this recent news, and all the other bookies have cut him as well apart from Skybet who appear to be sleeping, but I imagine the 10/1 wont be available for much longer. If he was to turn up youd be looking at a 2/1 favourite at best. please log in to view this image
Maximum Security confirmed to be skipping the Pegasus and going to the Saudi Cup. Report: Maximum Security to bypass Pegasus World Cup A purse cut to the Jan. 25 Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream Park has cost the race its biggest name. Owner Gary West on Sunday told The Thoroughbred Daily News that Maximum Security, who's in the hunt for Champion Three-Year-Old Male honors, will bypass the Pegasus in favor of the $20 million Saudi Cup, an inaugural event scheduled for Feb. 29. In 2019, the Pegasus carried a $9 million purse, with connections purchasing $500,000 slots to enter a horse. In 2020, the entry fee is gone, but so too is much of the money. The Saudi Cup's existence played a part in the changes. The world's richest horse race is meant to open doors to Saudi Arabia, enticing horsemen with no entry fee for a lucrative purse. “If a horse owner had a shot to win a $20-million race or a race for less than $3 million within a month, I am not sure why they would run for less," West told The TDN. "As of this minute, Max will not be running in the Pegasus and I can’t imagine anything that would change that decision.” To be run around one turn at 1 1/8 miles at Riyadh’s King Abdulaziz Racetrack, the Saudi Cup is also expected to include, among others, leading older horse McKinzie, top filly Midnight Bisou and Grade 1-placed members of Maximum Security's crop, Mucho Gusto and Tacitus. If Maximum Security's already overseas, the Jason Servis trainee could remain there as well for the $12 million Dubai World Cup on March 28. The 10/1 has gone now and given a good run in Saudi, which he is now 6/4 favourite for, it would be madness not to stay there for another month and go to Meydan. please log in to view this image
Nice Christmas present, you love to see it, touch wood the horse stays healthy now https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-ra...d-cup-also-a-possibility-for-maximum-security Dubai World Cup Also a Possibility for Maximum Security Strong effort in Saudi Cup could prompt connections to keep 3-year-old star overseas. Both trainer Jason Servis and owner Gary West say they would be open to running multiple grade 1 winner Maximum Security four weeks later in the Dubai World Cup, should the homebred 3-year-old turn in a winning or strong effort in the Saudi Cup. "I would think if he wins or runs real good, I guess you stay over there for the Dubai World Cup. I don't know if you bring him back home right away," Servis said. West said if Servis believes the son of New Year's Day can run in both the Feb. 29 Saudi Cup at the King Abdulaziz Racetrack in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the March 28 Dubai World Cup at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, he will be on board with the trainer's decision to target races that offer a combined $32 million. "If Jason would be open to running in the Dubai World Cup, I'll be open to it. Jason knows the horse better than anyone else. If he believes he would be ready for the Dubai World Cup, I would not be opposed to it," West said. "I would completely agree with his thought that once you're there and the horse is doing well, why come home? If the horse is eager for more, he's in that part of the world already, so let's run."
Kentucky Derby - Independence Hall 25/1 Skybet Nice horse running at Aqueduct tonight 9.24, been looking for a Derby horse and the established G1 horses dont look to be anything special. Maxfield was interesting and has a lot of class but he has a serious injury and not convinced about him being the right one for the Derby. Independence Hall in the Nashua looked the biggest natural talent I saw in any of the graded races, although im sure there will be a few maiden winners lurking and im not too keen on him running this early, but taking a chance on him as I think that price could go if he is impressive again tonight. Hopefully he wins as easily as his odds suggest and is then put away until late feb or early march as I wouldnt want him having more than 2 more runs before the Derby.
Not quite as visually impressive as last time, not good out the gates but not short of early speed, once he was up and in the clear he settled well and then was push button. I like that he ran much straighter this time, he was running around from the whip in the Nashua but he was more professional here which shows that he is learning. I think if they can get him starting better he will be a very decent tool, still some rough edges but he has a lot of ability.
Pegasus World Cup - Mucho Gusto 10/1 Unibet Its the Pegasus on Saturday and its interesting that Irad Ortiz has jumped off BC Mile winner Spun To Run to ride Mucho Gusto for Bob Baffert. He was a progressive horse last year with his best effort when giving Maximum Security a proper fight in the Haskell. Spun To Run was well behind that day although he obviously improved a lot at the end of the year. He then ran well when 3rd in the Travers after setting a strong pace before a disappointing last start when beaten at odds on for a Grade 3, may have been over the top there and he has been off since. Baffert had initially been planning to bring him back in calmer waters but apparently the horse has been working extremely well and it looks like a big hint with the jockey jumping ship from the clear 2nd choice. Mucho Gusto has been cut from 16s since the news and is as short as 4/1 in a place, so 10/1 with Unibet looks well worth a punt. Pegasus World Cup Turf - Mo Forza 5/1 Without Parole is a short price favourite after his 3rd in the Breeders Cup Mile on his first start for Chad Brown but im keen to take him on at this 9.5f trip and I think he was a bit flattered in that race. Magic Wand had an unbelievable season and is a rock solid 114 horse, she probably deserves to be favourite but I wonder if the travelling and hard races might just catch up with her here and she is not a horse who wins a lot despite her rarely running a bad race in good company. Mo Forza took 5 runs to break his maiden but always hinted at a lot of ability and was unlucky on a few occasions. The penny finally dropped with him and he won 4 straight including a Grade 1 at 9f. He is taking on older horses for the first time here so its a step up and you dont know how the 3yo form will stack up in open company but he looks a potential star turf horse to me and im taking a chance on him overcoming his inexperience here as he is not the finished article yet.
Mucho Gusto won a weak renewal of the Pegasus after a dream antepost scenario where the only 2 dangers were non runners. Mo Forza had a horrendous trip in the turf race but shaped well enough, more to come from him in the next few years. Independence Hall runs on Saturday in the Sam F Davis at Tampa and it will be a proper test, Premier Star is unbeaten in 2 and Ajaaweed looks potentially the best 3yo Hamdan has had over there, he could easily be a player in the classics this season. IH will need to show improvement mentally from his last run when he didnt give the jockey much help with a poor start after losing the plot pre race, wouldnt want to be allowing Premier Star a soft lead by missing the kick again. Not rushing to back him at 10/11 and Ajaweed at 6/1 is probably the best value in the race, but hopefully IH is the real deal.
Independence Hall got turned over, played up pre race again and despite starting much better, he never really settled well behind a strong pace which saw the 2 leaders finish 30L last and 2nd last. IH took it up turning in as the pace collapsed but didnt have much left in final furlong. I think he has shown a high level of ability here chasing that pace and still finishing 11L clear of the 3rd, just not Derby winning ability, and he isnt tractable enough to race further than a mile. Ill be looking elsewhere now for the Derby winner but I think IH could end up being a decent 6-7f horse and would probably benefit from moving to a top class trainer.
I am of the opinion that the Newmarket 2000 Guineas is just a case of Pinatubo showing up. His two year old rating is good enough to win the Guineas most years, so unless somebody has Pegasus under wraps and nobody has spotted it flying up the gallops that will just be a race to watch. I know we had the disappointment last year when the Gosden/Lloyd-Webber horse did not train on but I do not see lightning striking twice. The 1000 Guineas is a lot more open with many of the market leaders having question marks against them. This used to be my favourite ante-post classic because the winners used to come from one of two or three juvenile races; and often silly prices were available (I remember 10/1 Salsabil and 8/1 Sayyedati). Nowadays those two-year-old races seem to be dominated by sprinters and the Guineas goes to something lightly raced or with mixed juvenile form. Quadrilateral is unbeaten in three but what bothers me about Roger Charlton’s filly is that she won the Fillies’ Mile. I expect she will go to Newmarket without a trial but is she a middle distance filly looking for an Oaks prep? She is 10/1 favourite for the Oaks and it is 16/1 bar. Hugo Palmer has already said that Powerful Breeze will go straight to the Guineas, she only just failed to real in Quadrilateral but the Iffraaj filly does look like a miler and nothing more. I expect her to be a player. I do like Jessica Harrington’s filly Albigna, who ran respectably in the Breeders’ Cup after winning the Prix Marcel Boussac but is the form good enough? At Santa Anita, Roger Varian’s Daahyeh was ahead of her, having previously won the Rockfel. She does look like a miler but I do wonder if Varian is going to have another year like last – Daahyeh won the Albany at Royal Ascot so was she just precocious? My inclination at this stage is to take a chance on Freddie Head bringing Hamdan Al Maktoum’s filly Khayzaraan across the Channel. She won two of her three juvenile starts, most recently a novice event at Chantilly quite easily. I expect to see the Kingman filly in one of their trials and then it may be down to whether the owner wants to come to HQ for the prestige or stay in France for the money. If Newmarket looks wide open, I think Head would rather come to HQ. I am probably falling into the annual trap here because I have found a run-once, won-once with an excellent pedigree... but it is trained by Sir Michael so expect the odds to collapse in a couple of weeks when it is seen catching pigeons at Newmarket. Highest Ground is a son of Frankel out of the Sunday Silence mare Celestial Lagoon, owned by the Niarchos family. He holds all the classic entries, but I am ruling out the early mile races and going for the Derby – 50/1 will do for me! When it tanks at the Craven meeting, I will only have been dreaming of a June 6th pay day for six weeks. I do not see Pinatubo as a Derby horse so he is making the ante-post market for now. After a couple of early season Irish races, Ballydoyle will have three or four single figure prices too. With his natural speed, Pinatubo will stick to the mile and possibly step up for the Eclipse.
I'm a big Quadrilateral fan and felt she was always going to be a 3yo. Like QM I'd rather have seen her go for the Rockfel or Oh So Sharp over 7f rather than the Fillies Mile, but I don't hold it against her. The telly experts seemed to think she'd be an Oaks filly after her Mile win, but I don't think she's absolutely certain to stay 12f. (she's still a 5-1 shot for the 1000G and 8-1 for the Oaks). I am interested in another Charlton 3yo filly, and that's Pocket Square. She must have shown something at home as she was well backed on her debut at Yarmouth when achieving a perfectly respectable 3rd. A few weeks later she was an authorative winner of a good maiden at Ascot. Her next run was in France and she stepped up again to win a Group 3. She wasn't particularly stretched to beat the favourite Run wild, who had finished 4th to Powerful Breeze in the May Hill. A bare reading of the form puts Pocket Square about a 1-2lb behind Quadrilateral. Given that I've had a saver on her for the Guineas. She has the advantage of winning form on good to firm ground and heavy too. She's by champion first season sire Night of Thunder out of a Dansili mare. Though Night of Thunder never won over further than 8f he has a pedigree that would have suggested 10f would have been achievable. The bottom half of her pedigree also suggests she should stay 10f and there are hints of other stamina there. So maybe she'll be entered for the Oaks as well: so no prices at the moment.
