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Financial, erm, Stuff

Discussion in 'Newcastle United' started by FadgewackeR, Aug 10, 2023.

  1. FadgewackeR

    FadgewackeR Well-Known Member

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    So, seems Manchester United - the great money machine, are losing money repeatedly, year on year, and only passed this June's PSR calc by £2m (estimated) - this included a £40m covid write off that was ratified by the PL, despite being the largest claim in the PL by some distance...

    Premier League – Profitability & Sustainability

    There have been legitimate concerns about United’s compliance with the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Regulations (PSR), especially in light of the points deductions imposed on Everton and Nottingham Forest.

    Indeed, during the January transfer window, Erik ten Hag said, “There is no space with FFP to do something about this lack of quality in the striker position.”

    Based on my estimate for 2023/24, I think United were just about OK for the most recent 3-year assessment period, though it would have been very tight. This opinion also relies on a couple of sizeable deductions being accepted by the Premier League.

    A full year forecast for United is more straightforward than other clubs, as the quarterly accounts provided guidance for both £660m revenue and £140m EBITDA.

    However, we still need to estimate player trading:

    • Player amortisation - I have simply annualised the figures for the first 9 months.

    • Profit from player sales - after the first 9 months this was £31m, which I have increased by £10m for Q4, including the sale of Alvaro Carreras to Benfica plus loan fees for Sancho and Van de Beek.
    The wild card for United is always interest payable, as this is subject to movements in the exchange rate, with much of their debt being denominated in USD, but I have assumed a smaller charge in Q4, due to the paydown of the revolving facility, giving a £60m full year charge.

    These assumptions would give a pre-tax loss for 2023/24 of £126m.

    upload_2024-7-18_9-28-5.png

    Therefore, the reported loss for the 3-year monitoring period would be a hefty £309m, which is significantly higher than the £105m maximum allowed loss. United can use the upper limit here, as “secure funding” is available, especially after Ratcliffe’s capital injection.

    However, the reported numbers can be reduced by allowable deductions for “healthy” expenditure (infrastructure, academy, community and women’s football), which I have assumed as £131m.

    It should be stressed that these are only estimates, as the figures for these deductions are not divulged in the accounts (except depreciation and goodwill amortisation), so super confident pronouncements on United’s PSR position by numerous football finance experts (and plagiarists) should be treated with a degree of caution.

    So far, so good, but now it gets a little trickier, as United have also claimed £40m for COVID losses in 2021/22, which would have comfortably been the largest deduction in the Premier League that season.

    After UEFA fined the club €300k for a “minor break-even deficit” for the monitoring period up to 2021/22, United explained, “This reflected a change in the way that UEFA adjusted for COVID-19 losses during the 2022 reporting period”, implying that the Premier League had in contrast allowed the £40m COVID loss.

    I’ve also taken a bit of a punt on United being allowed to excluded the £34m exceptional charges linked to the share sale (but not the £6m for loss of office).

    It is also possible that United have been able to exclude the FX impact on interest payable, though I have not considered that in my model.

    Putting all those assumptions together, I reckon that United complied with PSR in 2023/24 by the skin of their teeth, as their £103m adjusted loss ended up being only £2m within the target.

    upload_2024-7-18_9-28-45.png

    My assessment is reinforced by the lack of any player sales before the 30th June PSR deadline. If United had genuinely faced a challenge to comply with PSR, then they would surely have been active in the transfer market (as we saw with Villa and Newcastle), but that was not the case.

    However, any United fans expecting a spending spree this summer are likely to be disappointed, as the club’s budget is likely to still be restricted, unless they can realise decent money from player sales.
     
    #81
  2. FadgewackeR

    FadgewackeR Well-Known Member

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    Conclusion

    This is a period of significant change following the completion of Ratcliffe’s investment. Sir Jim is clearly ambitious for success, publicly stating that he is looking “to take Manchester United back to the top of English, European and world football, with world-class facilities for our fans”.

    However, the club still faces a number of financial issues, as shown in the figures for the first 9 months of last season. Despite setting a new revenue record, the fact remains that United still posted an enormous pre-tax loss, though this was partly due to the inclusion of once-off costs linked to the share sale.

    Furthermore, the club’s operational cash outflow had to be covered by a significant capital injection from the new owner, while debt remains high even after the reduction in the revolving credit facility.

    Next season’s figures will also be hit by the loss of Champions League income, meaning that it will continue to be tricky to comply with PSR (though the large 2021/22 loss will drop out of the 3-year monitoring period).

    In summary, there will be no shortage of challenges confronting the new leadership team, but at least there now seems to be a plan to address them, even though the transition is unlikely to be 100% smooth sailing.
     
    #82
  3. Obi Wan

    Obi Wan keeper of the peace
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    It's why they farted about about to delay paying for Ashworth and then settled the day after the PSR deadline.

    All that media huff and puff tripe from Ratcliffe was just to disguise that they basically couldn't afford him.
     
    #83
  4. Albert's Chip Shop

    Albert's Chip Shop Top Grafter
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    Skint Manc plodder bastards.
     
    #84
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  5. cronemeister

    cronemeister Well-Known Member

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    #85
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  6. Roy!

    Roy! Well-Known Member

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    #86
  7. cronemeister

    cronemeister Well-Known Member

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    They might need to wait until it's public knowledge about what the outcome of the Man City arbitration hearing was....all seems to have gone quiet on that front as well funnily enough! Not quite sure if it's apples vs apples here but I can't see how they (the PL) could win that case and then kick back this Chelsea "shuffling of papers" but I may be wrong.

    The whole thing ****ing stinks mind.
     
    #87
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  8. Judge GG

    Judge GG Well-Known Member

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    So they are skint. Excellent news.
     
    #88
  9. Judge GG

    Judge GG Well-Known Member

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    But then they go and spend 52m on an 18 year old.
     
    #89
  10. Schlem Boogerman

    Schlem Boogerman Well-Known Member

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    The 52m will be andromortised over the age of the player. <cheers>
     
    #90
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  11. FadgewackeR

    FadgewackeR Well-Known Member

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    They can still spend, but they're also having to sell for profit, specifically academy for pure profit.

    The fact is that they're losing money. For "the Biggest Club in the World" to pass PSR by £2m, after favourable (questionable?) deductions, is remarkable.

    Old knacker chops has got a big job on his hands, and I can't see the Yanks helping out much with any of it... New stadium? Lol...
     
    #91
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  12. Obi Wan

    Obi Wan keeper of the peace
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    That's why he wants the government to build it for them, cheeky twat.

    He'll probably set up a GoFundMe page.


    Actually, that's a point, could we set one up, PIF chuck £1billion in and we call it 'revenue'? If the.'public' have paid in, then it is revenue just like shirt sales, right?

    Darren, Darren, listen up!!
     
    #92
  13. Obi Wan

    Obi Wan keeper of the peace
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  14. Darren Peacock’s Ponytail

    Darren Peacock’s Ponytail Well-Known Member

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    I’ve heard you!

    Sadly not much I can do about it though
     
    #94
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  15. Judge GG

    Judge GG Well-Known Member

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    It’s brilliant isn’t it. I also heard on the radio that the French are gobsmacked many paid 52m for that young lad.

    That PSG walked away from a 20m deal recently because they thought it was far too much money.

    I think they have had their pants pulled down.

    Unless of course Ashworth is an agent.
     
    #95
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  16. Albert's Chip Shop

    Albert's Chip Shop Top Grafter
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    #96
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  17. FadgewackeR

    FadgewackeR Well-Known Member

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    Think this is the best Chelsea one yet. They must have a loop hole to have gone this far, as the money has been transferred, but wow... where does it end? £175m sale, mainly profit, for their own women's team, to a related party...



    please log in to view this image
     
    #97
  18. Magdad

    Magdad cult leader

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    Steffan bornstein despite his account fancy abilities now gets ****ing rinsed on a daily basis by both Jim white and that **** that owned palace Simon somecuntorther. This bloke is a ****ing bellend. If he was that good he’d be making **** up for city not talksport. Guy is a grade A bellend. He’s about as relevant to football as Adam Pearson, 55 degrees north or Steve wraith. All attention seeking ****ing gob ****es.
     
    #98
  19. FadgewackeR

    FadgewackeR Well-Known Member

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    I agree, but the companies house registrations don't lie... Looks highly likely that £175m is the CWFC price that Chelsea have sold them for, to Chelsea.
     
    #99
  20. Darren Peacock’s Ponytail

    Darren Peacock’s Ponytail Well-Known Member

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    But how have they valued CWFC at that price?
    Personally think the PL need to get their ass in to gear and look at all these dodgy dealings made by Chelsea
     
    #100
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