F1 2018 SEASON: NEWS - RUMOURS

Kimi is a perfect foil for Vettel, especially with Kimi looking stronger this year. If Ferrari still have complete faith in Vettel to deliver a title, there's no point changing things.

The counterpoint is: Just how much Ferrari trust Vettel? When under pressure towards the end of last season, he cracked in a way that I'm not sure Hamilton would. Every season til 2021 could be just as competitive, do Ferrari want to miss out on the chance of signing someone who may be better at converting a winning car into a championship? Ricciardo?

 

Well, Vettel did pretty well at the end of 2010 when it was a 4 way fight (although to be fair he was under less pressure being an underdog). 2012 he didn't panic despite being tagged on the opening lap of Brazil which dropped him out of the points. However, he has been known to lose his cool (Mexico 2016?) but then, so has Lewis upon occasion. Would it be fair to say that when the car is there, Vettel has the boost in confidence to not panic?

At the moment I think Ferrari are more than happy with Vettel but probably have one eye on Verstappen for a few year's time once he's calmed down a touch. Long term, I think Vettel wants to drive for Mercedes at some point so we might see Leclerc move to Haas to give him a mid-range car before a promotion up to the big team. Problem is Kimi will be 39 at the end of this season so they can't realistically expect him to keep going for another 3 years or so while Leclerc matures as a driver. A few years ago we might have seen Perez, Hulk or Grosjean being lined up for that drive but now I don't really see the likelihood of any of those anymore. I think Vettel would have Ricciardo as a team mate again at the moment as he's got confidence and form back, Ricciardo probably wouldn't mind going as he knows he can beat Vettel. I think it's going to come down to who wants him more, Mercedes or Ferrari? Unless Bottas has a stellar year, I can't see Mercedes taking him over Ricciardo if that's the choice.

 

I think the only counter argument to that, is the question of how long Mercedes stay in F1. They stand a good chance of winning the 2018, 2019 and 2020 titles, and then all bets are off for 2021. If the regulations don't suit their company ethos (the engine technology being watered down for a start), they may decide 2021 isn't worth it, and pull out. They'll have a Formula E team established by then. If that's the case, then I can see them keeping Bottas, because Hamilton will deliver them titles and there's no point upsetting him, and no need to plan any further ahead.

 

Good point. But will Formula E have the same global exposure for their brand by that point? I'm not so sure.

 

No, they're too slow, wouldn;t even keep up with a Formula Ford, but it really all depends on the technology. for all we know there may be a massive break-through in electrical storage technology that changes the game completely. But even if it does, you have to hope that an oil company doesnt then attain patent rights and ban anyone from making them, like Chevron did with the battery Nissa used in the RAV4 EV

 

oops, wrong thrread

 

Gen 1 are too slow (Top speed 140 mph), Gen 2 for next season will be a step forward. The cars are expecting to hit 185+ mph towards the end of longer straights, and the batteries will last the whole race. FE are continuing to open up the technology development race within the sport, and have Nissan, Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Jaguar by 2021.

Do Mercedes invest the hundreds of millions necessary to create a competitive 2021 spec engine, plus the £200m+ (cost cap assumed) a year to run an F1 team, when by 2025 Formula E cars could be capable of 200mph+, and look like genuine top tier motorsport, with the more attractive engineering challenges and marketing credentials that come with it?

On a side note, the Gen 2 car will run the full Monaco circuit next year. Formula E is designed for street circuits so they have somewhat of a home advantage, making the lap time comparisons particularly interesting. It'll be the first real comparison possible.

 

I agree with DH . Wether we like it or not , Fe or whatever , is the future . Esp in Europe , it’s where the big boys are going .

Shame we didn’t go hydrogen , pit stops may have been fun .

 

Alonso is yeterday's man. He is going to be 37 this year and surely can only have another year to two at most? If Mercedes wanted him they would have signed him for this year when they had the chance and would Ferrari really have him back?

They'd both be better saving a shed load of money on salaries and looking at Leclerc or another driver who they can build a future team around.

 

Electric cars are the undeniably the future. The question is how far in the future. The Gen 2 cars are faster, but we're still talking significantly down on power and significantly heavier. I'd expect them to be quite a lot slower than an F2 car. 2025 seems optimistic as a date to match F1.

Besides when the technology becomes good enough i suspect that F1 and FE will just merge rather than abandoning the history and prestige. Mercedes would be better served lobbying for that than leaving.

 

This is an interesting discussion. One interesting thing is Liberty Media owning the commercial rights to F1. I can't imagine that their contract with FIA will allow Formula E to overtake F1. So somehow in the future either F1 will become all electric or Liberty have made a massive mistake!!!
The new PU regs that I think go from 2021 for 5 years, maybe longer to entice more PU suppliers? Could be the last internal combustion engines we see in F1!

 

F1's primary objective is – and always will be – to be the pinnacle of motor racing, indeed, motor-sport in general.

So long as F1 exists, it will continue to cherry-pick the best bits of all technologies as and when they emerge as viable; so E-technology will be smoothly 'absorbed' over time in line with ongoing improvements in its performance and durability, so long as it has something to offer.

What is great is that we have Formula E already pioneering the technology. But there is a fundamental difference between an F1 'formula' which allows contestants to do their own thing with chassis design and power train (albeit within the formula's constraints) and one which completely specifies (dictates all aspects of) the chassis and power train except for very minor differences in set-up – as with FE.

In this sense, it should be clear that it is actually impossible for FE ever to eclipse F1 because only the latter provides for rivalry between contestants in the technology which drives the way forward into the future.

–However, it is certainly possible that FE could, in principle, evolve to eclipse all other 'spec' formulae, including the likes of Indycar.

 

indeed, when it looks closer to being on par the power regulations will change to hybrid or full electric with split rules, much like they did for a while during the turbo/NA days.

 

Interesting thoughts Cosi, but you seem to presuppose that F-E will always be a spec series?

A spec series was the only way to possibly get electric racing off the ground. Teams, especially privateers, would have found it prohibitively expensive otherwise.

Already elements of the formula are being opened up, and with more privateers getting manufacturer backing, plus full works teams, you'd expect that trend to continue. Will there be a Gen 3 car, or will teams design their own chassis?

The 2021 F1 regs are looking like being less progressive than the existing rules, and they'll likely last 5-6 years. By 2027, can anyone see Ferrari letting go of Internal Combustion? They'd still run V12's if they could!

So by the late 2020s, F-E will be a mature series with equivalent manufacturer support to F1. The electric cars won't be as quick, but they'll be acceptable. Why won't Formula E be in a position to take over from F1, rather than being absorbed into it and becoming irrelevant?

 

IMHO , in the future it will still be branded F1 , but it will be all electric .

The only fly in the ointment I can see ,is this obsession by the new owners to try to push F1 in the USA .

IMHO that will never happen long ( Enough ) term .

 

I here you, DHC. I also think Jasper has just summed it up.

Certainly, FE will evolve but it is built on the concept of a 'spec' formula in the first place. As you say, it had to be. And as you know, F1 was built on the fundamental concept of competition between manufacturers, based upon what they themselves can come up with. FE could/will also evolve into something allowing a lot more freedom (as you say, this is already happening to an extent) . However, the philosophies are fundamentally different. Furthermore, both are governed by the same international body: the FIA; and it is in its own interest to retain a clear hierarchy.

Different philosophy: it's all in the name​

If there ever comes a time (say in 50, 100, 200 or 500 years) when all vehicles are based upon an electric motor and the IC engine is a dinosaur confined to history, the 'E' designation will be irrelevant since "FE" exists as a classification distinct from other technologies which exist during the same era. Looking forward, we might then imagine another new technological kid on the block (hydrogen has been mentioned) – and its name would need to reflect its distinction from whatever is top dog of the norm at the time; Formula H, for instance.

But this argument can never apply to Formula 1. The name "Formula 1" states that it is the number one formula – regardless of the technology. Formula 1 must always utilise the best technology available, otherwise it is no longer Formula 1. There are only two logical arguments by which I can see the demise of "F1":
a/ Whoever governs it chooses to alter the name; but if the name no longer describes it as number 1, it no longer defines itself as top dog! – And I cannot foresee any organisation deliberately undermining itself and everything it represents.
b/ Another governing body takes over which is disallowed use of the name due to trade-mark/brand name or other legal disqualification from further use of the name.

 

Do the future regulations have to create a faster F1 for it to keep its relevance?

F1 got undeniably faster each decade from the 50s onwards, but are we really any faster than the 00s right now?

F1 May need to relax it’s rules and allow creativity to move it to that next level.

 

Well, the lap records are being rewritten so I'm assuming they are faster, at least in qualifying trim (the older lap records were during refuelling IIRC). The real hinderance to more speed is the human body and the race tracks, they've been slowing them down with new rules since mid 80's when the turbo's giving out silly power.

 

Mercedes really hate the hypers. Very different to the others for Canada. Personally I feel like Ferrari will be wishing they'd done the same.

 

F1 could get faster, and year-on-year with stable regs they do.

Next year's front wing rules will probably add 2-3 seconds to lap times, but the teams will claw that back within a season or so. I'd expect the 2021 regs to slow the cars down again, to aid overtaking. I don't doubt they could propose rules that would allow a sub-1min lap of Monaco, etc, but that would further harm overtaking, and safety. If the cars get substantially quicker, more run off, larger run-offs, etc is necessary for the same degree of safety we have now. A lot of the classic circuits simply don't have the space to add that run-off. I'd rather see cars lap slower, than see every race at a soulless Tilke-drome with a literal mile of run-off on each corner. It's rubbish for those attending then too, with the grandstands so far away.