Off Topic EU Referendum

[Toon_Man_Sam1]

I'm not sure I get the comparisons to Norway. They are not in the EU and do ok, fair enough, but they are in the EEA and enjoy a free trade agreement with the countries of the EU. Now that would be all well and good for the UK but the 'price' of that free trade deal is to also have free movement of labour which is what seems to be motivating most of the Brexiters to want to vote leave in the first place. So if we are voting out to stop an influx of labour then we won't be wanting to have the free trade deal and the free movement of labour that would come with it, which means there will be tariffs and charges and bureaucracy on all goods and services bought and sold. So the things we buy from Europe will be more expensive and our living standards fall, and more importantly the things we sell will be more expensive, less of them bought meaning fewer of them made and fewer jobs in the UK. It would likely lower the value of our currency too making our money go less far and further lowering living standards.

I see people keep saying things like, "but we won't just stop trading with countries in the EU if we leave". Nobody is saying we will, but there will be tariffs on what we buy and sell and that will be economically problematic. Some people are underestimating what difference the free trade deal makes to our economy IMHO.

The other thing that grinds my gears is the trying to play on peoples' fear by saying Europe is going to be a federal superstate so we should leave. IF that were ever proposed, and it is decades off in my opinion if it were to ever happen at all, then there would certainly be a referendum on it and we can make a decision to leave or stay then. It is almost being implied by Brexiters that by voting remain now you are authorising being part of this mythical superstate. You are not.

I started out a few months ago with an undecided and open mind, but I just haven't heard a convincing argument as to why we should leave so I will be voting to remain. The other 'issues' like the free movement of labour, the EU being bureaucratic institution (yes it could be a hell of a lot better) or the sovereignty argument don't bother me too much, but economically I'm convinced leaving would be a disaster.

Why not Leave, allow the free movement to allow us to trade freely very much like Norway, but bring in our own law that stipulates that british born people should have preference on jobs, housing, hospitals, schools and there will be no benefits paid until 4 years of tax paying work along with the caveat that if they come in and dont get a job in 6 months, they leave and we use some of the eu money we've been spending to enforce this. We could also deport criminals and terrorists. we could also agree to share information with other countries on criminals in a similar situation to the current policy.

This would bring the unemployement rate would decrease meaning the spending on benefits by the tax payers would lower. Also Housing availability would increase, meaning that rental prices would decline and people would have a much better quality of life.

Its the best of all worlds!

 

[General Lee Speaking]

Why not Leave, allow the free movement to allow us to trade freely very much like Norway, but bring in our own law that stipulates that british born people should have preference on jobs, housing, hospitals, schools and there will be no benefits paid until 4 years of tax paying work along with the caveat that if they come in and dont get a job in 6 months, they leave and we use some of the eu money we've been spending to enforce this. We could also deport criminals and terrorists. we could also agree to share information with other countries on criminals in a similar situation to the current policy.

This would bring the unemployement rate would decrease meaning the spending on benefits by the tax payers would lower. Also Housing availability would increase, meaning that rental prices would decline and people would have a much better quality of life.

Its the best of all worlds!

Realistically, the EU wouldn't do a deal with us on that basis. It would discriminate against EU citizens so I couldn't see it happening. We will be a small player in comparison to the EU and they will hold the power in any negotiations.

There's another factor that I didn't mention before but the way China is going we are surely better off being part of a trading block like the EU. I know the steel industry hasn't been helped that much recently due to EU rules which needs looking at but going to the table with 500 million consumers rather than 60 million surely gives you the ability to negotiate better deals with them.

Finally, one thing that worries me about leaving the EU would be the Scottish Nationalists instantly calling for another referendum. They would argue that they would have a legitimate claim for an independence referendum on the basis that their stance is to be in Europe. They have such a stranglehold on Scottish politics at the moment that I think they would get what they wanted and I'm not so sure you would see the same result next time round. So QED leaving the EU would probably ultimately see the UK break up too. Some people on the leave side might think that's a good thing and it does also make me wonder in which box the SNP voters will be putting their X on voting day irrespective of their party policy of wanting to remain.

 

[TheJudeanPeoplesFront]

Oh go on then, I was chatting to a mate a couple of months ago and mentioned QE but he didn't know about it so I do wonder how many people take notice, I also liked the idea that a government could just print enough money and then pay off it's debt, it's a fairly extreme economic theory and no country has considered it or would try it I think but it would be interesting to see.

Isn't that what Germany (Weimar Republic) did which basically led to hyperinflation and the subsequent depression?

QE was a ridiculousness of epic proportions, and as with every drop of imaginary money and figures ever invented, sat bloating but a few hoarding motherfuckers. Depending on whether or not you're biased, some people blame this practice on the EU, or at least the consequences.

 

[Dorty Dogbreath]

Seeing Blair on the news makes me so

Word up is that he is going to get savaged by the Chilcott Report, hope so.

 

[atom heart mother]

Ok - a specific question about Immigration which Ive not seen addressed in any of the bickering...
Currently we have a UK border control which is based on the French side of the channel and anyone not eligible will not cross the channel.
If we leave and the French tell us to get stuffed the UK border will be back in Dover or wherever so the refugees will already be on British soil annd even if we refuse them entry I presume they can then claim asylum and cant be deported as they would be UK responsibility to deal with... is this correct and if so are we open to huge numbers trying to enter ? You can imagine the scenarios...

 

[Captainchaos.]

I'm voting in

1. Better the devil you know
2. I don't want David Cameron and his merry men having full control over this country

 

[Dorty Dogbreath]

Ok - a specific question about Immigration which Ive not seen addressed in any of the bickering...
Currently we have a UK border control which is based on the French side of the channel and anyone not eligible will not cross the channel.
If we leave and the French tell us to get stuffed the UK border will be back in Dover or wherever so the refugees will already be on British soil annd even if we refuse them entry I presume they can then claim asylum and cant be deported as they would be UK responsibility to deal with... is this correct and if so are we open to huge numbers trying to enter ? You can imagine the scenarios...

Technically, aren't they supposed to claim asylum in the first country they enter?

Its an absolute fukking balls up. Blair, Cameron, Merkel et all have all spoon fed us bullshit re immigration for the past 20 years.

Not sure on the answer for the above.

 

[Dorty Dogbreath]

I'm voting in

1. Better the devil you know
2. I don't want David Cameron and his merry men having full control over this country

As I said earlier, choosing which lot to run our country is like having to decide between jumping off a bridge or throwing yourself in front of a moving train.

 

[ClearlyDeludedGloryHunter]

I am no fan of Cameron either but, in all fairness, he's the least worst of the lot of them. He's more moderate than most of the other Tories and he did a fair enough job with the agreement with the EU. The important one, I believe, is that we're not to bail out any more Euro states.

People tell me that they're sick of the immigrants. So, when you ask them what they mean and they turn out to mean refugees and not immigrants. The Syrians, in particular. Most of these are refugees and any civilised nation should and would open the borders to them. Not only that, the last time I looked Syria wasn't in the EU so this has nothing to do with the EU debate. This is simply a matter of principle of each state and their obligation to the UN and no matter how it's all dressed up; the refugee crisis has nothing to do with the EU so voting in or out will make no difference.

Okay, so we could be swamped with Polish plumbers and carpenters. Except that they've gone home.

One of the (few) good things that the EU has given us are protections and the rights for the common man. The European Court (EC) is nothing to do with the EU neither so in or out would make no odds as we will still be subject to that. One of the Exit fellows is Gove who makes Cameron a leftie in comparison. He wants to rid us of the EC because he sees it as meddling with our affairs. In other words, when the EC says that things are run illegally here in Britain we have to take note. And this is what Gove doesn't like. He wants to pull out of the EU as a first step and then get out of the EC later on. So, if you want the four countries to have more zero-hour contracts, more police and state control and less accountability to the people (the Freedom of Information Act will be repealed if we leave) then, sure, vote out.

Voting out won't stop the refugees but it will stop trained plumbers coming in from Europe and also unskilled workers who fill up the NHS and do other jobs that no-one here will do.

But what I find is the biggest and most worrying lie is that it's decided that we'll have the same agreement as the, er, Swiss model or the Norwegian model or the Australian model or the, er... We haven't agreed a single thing with the EU and no-one knows what it will be like. But I can tell you that as soon as we pull out of the EU then a lot of people will be pissed off. The French and Germans because their bills will go up and people like the Dutch and the Belgians because they will get less. So, do you really think that the EU will make things easy for us for thrashing out trade deals? I can tell you that it won't be easy. Apart from tariffs going up (and I don't recall the Brexit people mentioning this at all) there is the problem of the City of London. It won't be five minutes before the EU puts a financial tariff on every trade going in and out of London. That will cause what the Germans have been wanting since even before reunification: to get the financial heart of London over to Bonn.

If and when that happens we can just turn off the lights.

 

[ClearlyDeludedGloryHunter]

Realistically, the EU wouldn't do a deal with us on that basis. It would discriminate against EU citizens so I couldn't see it happening. We will be a small player in comparison to the EU and they will hold the power in any negotiations.

There's another factor that I didn't mention before but the way China is going we are surely better off being part of a trading block like the EU. I know the steel industry hasn't been helped that much recently due to EU rules which needs looking at but going to the table with 500 million consumers rather than 60 million surely gives you the ability to negotiate better deals with them.

Finally, one thing that worries me about leaving the EU would be the Scottish Nationalists instantly calling for another referendum. They would argue that they would have a legitimate claim for an independence referendum on the basis that their stance is to be in Europe. They have such a stranglehold on Scottish politics at the moment that I think they would get what they wanted and I'm not so sure you would see the same result next time round. So QED leaving the EU would probably ultimately see the UK break up too. Some people on the leave side might think that's a good thing and it does also make me wonder in which box the SNP voters will be putting their X on voting day irrespective of their party policy of wanting to remain.

Oddly enough, I was saying this just this afternoon. Scotland would call for independence because they will see this largely as a Westminster policy change. And then the Welsh would follow suit with their call for independence.

The former may go easier than the the latter's because Westminster has tied down over 100 areas which are none negotiable to the Welsh including transport, water supply (i.e. the lads from Mid Wales will not be able to turn off the water to Birmingham) and over a lot of important areas which would be essential to a sovereign nation even including any space travel (which is because Westminster is as far from Llanbedr as feasibly possible without losing votes in the Home Counties). Westminster has seen this coming a long while coming here in Wales and have made 'arrangements' to head it off at the hills.

Nonetheless, Wales knows that it's better off in the EU than without and this isn't going to help the Union at all and when the Welsh then later want control of their own sovereignty then things are going get rather messy.

 

[Dorty Dogbreath]

Its been quite funny watching the Conservatives tear into each other....it's in there DNA, they've always had their fair share of Eurosceptics. I'm just surprised a few more haven't come out of the woodwork.

 

[General Lee Speaking]

Oddly enough, I was saying this just this afternoon. Scotland would call for independence because they will see this largely as a Westminster policy change. And then the Welsh would follow suit with their call for independence.

The former may go easier than the the latter's because Westminster has tied down over 100 areas which are none negotiable to the Welsh including transport, water supply (i.e. the lads from Mid Wales will not be able to turn off the water to Birmingham) and over a lot of important areas which would be essential to a sovereign nation even including any space travel (which is because Westminster is as far from Llanbedr as feasibly possible without losing votes in the Home Counties). Westminster has seen this coming a long while coming here in Wales and have made 'arrangements' to head it off at the hills.

Nonetheless, Wales knows that it's better off in the EU than without and this isn't going to help the Union at all and when the Welsh then later want control of their own sovereignty then things are going get rather messy.

I believe the Welsh are very far from the Scottish position on independence. From what I read a while back the vote would be highly in favour of remaining in the UK since they are so dependent on contributions from the rest of the UK.

 

[ClearlyDeludedGloryHunter]

Norway did have the small advantage of a massive sovereign wealth fund from North Sea Oil. So unless we get fracking (and start spending most of the windfall on flood defences) it's not really a valid comparison.

I've lived in Norway for a number of years and it's not hard to see how they have managed to cope being without the EU.

First of all they have not squandered their oil and gas revenues. They made sure that it all went back into investment. They around a total of 5m in their population when I left and the crucial part is that they were able to maintain themselves agriculturally to a certain extent and, more important, they had a massive investment in hydro-electricity (which we can't do here in the UK) which meant that they can have cheap power.

Once one has cheap and renewable energy then a lot of obstacles are overcome and life becomes a lot easier. The average Norwegian is happy to pay a high percentage of tax than we ever will and, on the whole, it was well invested. The standard of living is high there, the hospitals are very good there and so is the education.

They haven't embarked on stupid wars which cost untold billions and they've looked inwards to their investment and not ventured on the Norwegian version of Pax Britannia.

The Norwegians aren't stupid. They have natural resources galore and their own fishing stocks which isn't as trivial or as daft as it sounds. They weren't going to go and give it away. Now, if those nice Europeans want some shiny bits of electricity now and then then they have some power (excuse pun) when it comes to negotiating trade agreements. The UK doesn't because as a country which is now nothing little more than a massive call centre and an assembler for overseas manufacturers there is next to bugger all that the UK offers, other than what is in the Square Mile, that the rest of Europe needs.

 

[ClearlyDeludedGloryHunter]

I believe the Welsh are very far from the Scottish position on independence. From what I read a while back the vote would be highly in favour of remaining in the UK since they are so dependent on contributions from the rest of the UK.

You would be unwise to underestimate the anti-Westminster stance in Wales, particularly in the Northern Welsh Heartlands where they do realise that being in Europe is far better than being subjugated to England.

 

[Albert's Chip Shop]

Sometimes a change is as good as a rest.

 

[ClearlyDeludedGloryHunter]

What does that mean?

Pol Pot brought about change. Hitler brought about change. So did Stalin. As did Kruschev. And into modern times so did Thatcher.

I would argue quite the opposite.

 

[Obi Wan]

Sometimes a change is as good as a rest.

Well give us all a rest and change out of those nasty mustard chinos.

 

[General Lee Speaking]

Sometimes a change is as good as a rest.

I hope that's not the basis on which you are going to vote.

 

[Albert's Chip Shop]

What does that mean?

Pol Pot brought about change. Hitler brought about change. So did Stalin. As did Kruschev. And into modern times so did Thatcher.

I would argue quite the opposite.

It's human nature to be risk averse.

Personally I like to say 'feck it' and take a risk once in a while.

I was 'ln' at 5pm today, then a 5 hour drive home switched me back to 'out', it's that finer line.

It would take ages to bash my sausage fingers all over my iphone to give every reason for and against so I won't.

Everyone is entitled to their individual views on both sides but I have to say it's good that so many people across the UK are talking politics again.

Cannot remember when people we as engaged as this in my lifetime.

 

[Albert's Chip Shop]

I hope that's not the basis on which you are going to vote.

Lol. If it were it's my choice though.
Maybe a velvet bag with a couple of balls would be classier.
I'll switch a dozen times before that postal vote gets posted.
I have to do it by Tues tho as I'm in Asia after that.