Epsom Derby, Saturday 5th June 2021

always good to see the Derby winner at the King George.

 

Hurricane Lane heading for the Irish Derby

 

Super glue on the shoes this time hopefully.

Mind you, if Ron is correct, he could perform equally well with one bare foot, one welly boot, a Jesus sandal and a stiletto heel.

 

How many will O'Brien Run? Hope he looks after Bolshoi Ballet - not a 12 furlong horse . for me the ideal race would be the Juddomonte at York- flat speed track should be right up his street

 

Quite a lot of sense and interesting insight, rare in an interview with a trainer as they usually tend to be cagey.

It will be nice to see the King George contested by the top three year old colt for once, although the last few times that I have been some top older horses have won it, notably Enable. Two Oaks winners have collected in recent history.

Hurricane Lane is going to The Curragh, a track that may better suit a galloper and gives them the chance to have two classic winners in the yard. I expect that there will be quite a few others from the Epsom vanquished once they have got over their exertions, bumps and scrapes. If Bolshoi Ballet lines up, will he start favourite for a second classic?

I note on the same media outlet that Timeform have rated Adayar 125. As time is obviously their preferred tool of analysis, they do observe that the Derby was 1.5 seconds quicker than the following handicap over the same trip. Adayar certainly exhibited a level of bravery and resolve, but his stablemate may be the yardstick that handicappers choose because of the unreliable non-stayers and the injured favourite.

 

Twat comment Grendel. Not like you

 

Sweet Jesus, Has humour died?

 

I would think the Eclipse would be a better option for Bolshoi Ballet. The trainer had said High Definition going to Ireland gave the colts the chance of a Derby each. The Eclipse is a week later than the Irish Derby and gives more time for Bolshoi Ballet to recover from Epsom.

I still think High Definition is the horse to take from the Dante. He had a lot against him there. He had an interrupted preparation, was over a shorter than ideal trip and faced rivals who had a fitness advantage. He was screaming out for further and has always looked like a horse who needed a trip.

I would expect High Definition to go off favourite if he turns up at the Curragh.

 

The Official Handicapper has rated Adayar 121 (Up 14 lbs)

I think that is more realistic. If he is a 125 horse let him prove it later. With the circumstances in this year's Derby, I think it is jumping the gun to put a higher figure on the performance. I feel it needs more evidence.

 

You can back Bolshoi Ballet at 8/1 for the Irish Derby. That price surely indicates that there is some dubiety regarding him turning up for the race.

Mojo Star is 9/2 for that Classic and Hurricane Lane is 3/1. High Definition is 9/4 Fav in the early betting for the race. The odds may not seem appetising but contenders are thin on the ground.

 

The Filly has little to prove against her own sex in the 3YO ranks. The opposition is non-existent there.

Regarding the overall standard of the 3YO's this year, it was interesting to hear John Gosden saying that his crop of 3YO's this season are the poorest he has had in his living memory. He was explaining why he was totally relying on the older horses for potential success at Royal Ascot this season. He did add that he also had a couple of nice 2YO's but bemoaned the fact that he had nothing to take to Epsom for the Classics.

I don't think Gosden is alone this season in his lack of 3YO talent and Roger Varian had a poor return from his Epsom team.

 

High Definition has been cut to Evens favourite for the Irish Derby, in from 9/4.

 

More firms offering odds on the Irish Derby now and High Definition is generally 6/4.

As I had expected, Bolshoi Ballet is not in the 17 currently entered and I would expect the field to thin further tomorrow when we get the bad news about which one Ryan Moore is on.

The Layers seem mixed on who should be second favourite, with Mojo Star and Hurricane Run vying for the spot and both can be backed at 5/1 if you shop around. Personally, I expect Hurricane Run to reverse form away from Epsom, assuming that he doesn't do an impersonation of Shoeless Joe Jackson this time around.

Mac Swiney can be supported at 8/1 in places but the ground is good to firm and he's had a busy enough season to date. There has been a picking away at Van Gogh's odds, perhaps inspired by him getting 12F for the first time but his efforts so far this season hardly suggest he is one to have strong confidence in and his Group 1 win in France last season has not worked out very well.

I would have thought Hurricane Lane was a sound enough bet if you feel he beat High Definition on merit in the Dante but I worry how good the Dante was anyway. It all hinges for me on how much High Definition has come forward from his seasonal debut. The step up in trip should definitely help and the course should play to his strengths better. If I can get 2/1 I might play.

 

Right horses wrong Derby

Will people now stop backing High Definition to reverse the form?

 

High Definition didn't run his race at all. No one could seriously suggest that was his best form. O'Brien thinks that something may have happened when his colt stumbled after 3F and at the the time I thought WTF happened there.

One of the female commentators on ITV had suggested High Definition would be held up to come with "An explosive turn of foot" but unless that was being tongue in cheek, it must have been the silliest notion, considering all three of the colt's previous runs.

I thought there were good enough reasons for High Definition to turn the form around and would do the same again in a similar scenario. Nobody is right all the rime in this game but it would have been more informative if High Definition had run his race and Hurricane Lane simply beat him again to confirm the form. As it was High Definition was simply **** and wouldn't have beaten me, far less Hurricane Lane.

Hurricane Lane made hard work of catching Lone Eagle and it's almost certain he will go the Leger and be favourite for it quite rightly. Wordsworth is a real stayer ans was well beaten in third place. He would probably be looking Leger bound as well but I suspect few would expect him to reverse form with Hurricane Lane.

High Definition looks a bust for now. That was an alcoholic performance and if he had run to his Dante effort he would have been third.

To be fair to Hurricane Lane, he seemed to enjoy having four shoes on this time, pity he hadn't kept them on in the Epsom Derby when he was my selection for the race after High Definition was pulled.