Epsom Derby, Saturday 5th June 2021

Fair enough. I wouldn’t myself. And if the draw pushed the price out, I’d be all the more keen to get on.

Not that I have an opinion either this year. If I do have a bet, it’ll be entirely on the basis of perceived value.

 

Question
Did the best horse in the race that day win the Dante

 

Hurricane Lane is the only unbeaten horse in the Derby and he has won the trial that is generally considered the most prestigious after, perhaps, the Guineas.

The son of Frankel was outpaced, as was the third High Definition but whereas Hurricane Lane stayed on strongly enough to collar Megallan, High Definition took ages to get going and was only third.

Hurricane Lane had match fitness on his side that day and Aidan O'Brien is notorious for his horses needing their first outing of the season. In addition this time High Definition had also missed his intended starting point in the Lingfield Derby Trial due to a bad blood count. The son of Galileo was quickly re-routed to the Dante and I would have expected connections to have been reasonably satisfied with the colt's run given the circumstances.

I am concerned as to whether the Dante form is strong enough, based on Megallan looking a colt clearly short of top class but I suppose he may have improved for his first try at a longer trip.

I do believe that High Definition will reverse form with Hurricane Lane, even though both colts should enjoy the step up in distance. I am dubious if either is going to be good enough though. High Definition needs to come forward a lot from his comeback run and Hurricane Lane needs another step forward. Both things could happen and in some ways Hurricane Lane would be the best winner for the race's profile, with him being an unbeaten son of Frankel who could emerge as a colt above the mediocrity that has surrounded the division this season.

I think the whole Dante argument is going to be moot though, as I don't think High Definition will run. He's out to 10/1 and having had a few of my ante-post bets scuppered at the last minute this year already, it looks like I am staring down the barrels of another shotgun shell up the arse.

 

Yh High Definition 100 on betfair, announcement should be imminent. Poor from Ballydoyle talking him up last few days while Bolshoi Ballet was smashed into at short odds like they knew he was their only runner.

 

That's a bit harsh Grendel. They have analysed the race and drawn a conclusion as to who they think will win. If the horse they think will win is fav, what should they say; it won't win? They agree with my view so they can't be too bad

 

Aidan has stated that High Definition will most likely not be declared.
I wasnt worried about him to be honest as I think the best horse won the Dante. Whether or not he is good enough to beat Bolshoi Ballet we shall have to see.

 

Third Realm wins it. Simples.

 

Adam Kirby has been jocked off John Leeper in favour of Frankie. Obviously realised he wasn’t going to get a spare Ballydoyle ride.

 

Bolshoi Ballet is the sole runner from the O'Brien stable. Not surprising really, as he was their best shot by miles.

High Definition is going to the Irish Derby, which seems a sensible option. Van Gogh and St Mark's Basilica go for the French Derby and the other two entries had no prayer all along.

I wouldn't mind so much but Ballydoyle must have known for a while what the crack was and yet less than 24 hours ago the headline was how much High Definition was going to be suited by the strong pace at Epsom and yet he was drifting like a barge in the betting at the time.

Anyway, after all that we are staring at a likely odds-on favourite now and a very crappy looking race. Even my outsider Southern Lights is only 20/1 now and that looks crazy.

Think I will sit and watch the grass grow on Saturday, rather than listen to the ITV team trying to make this race sound appetising. I can just hear the comparisons with Shergar already.

 

They could make a case for something each-way at bigger odds. Most punters are able to work out for themselves that a short favourite might win and at the likely odds the short favourite is as much use as a chocolate dildo on a hot summer's day to the average punter.

 

Just like to point out that Lough Derg has done nothing for the Derrinstown form this evening

 

Thats what you get for naming a horse after a dour hurdler.

 

I've felt all along that the only good horse Bolshoi Ballet beat in the Derrinstown was Mac Swiney. The Bolger horse had something amiss that day and didn't have his ground.

Tonight, Lough Derg could not beat a 100/1 shot rated 92, despite getting 13 lbs from the older horse. As ever, the Racing Post man tries to put a favourable slant on the race and rated Lough Derg as running to only 12 lbs below his OR of 105. That means we have to believe that 100/1 shot Geometrical has run to 101 on RPR tonight. My issue with that is that the horse has run to 45, 58 and 69 on his last three starts and the best of those was in a 5 and a half furlong handicap last time out. Upped to 10F tonight, you have to wonder WTF was going on there.

The winner of Lough Derg's race tonight was 5th in the Beresford behind High Definition last season and was gelded in March.

 

When O'Brien goes into a Derby 'mob handed' it usually means that he has no idea of his best horse. Wings of Eagles 40/1 and Serpentine 25/1 are recent examples. Bolshoi Ballet has a plum draw[9] and the fact that he has withdrawn his remaining entries suggests that he believes Bolshoi is the proverbial 'good thing' - and he is probably right. However look deeper in the form and you will note that he has been beaten by Gear up, who was beaten 5 lengths by Hurricane Lane in the Dante and, in his only attempt in group 1 company he has come up short, that race was won by Gear up - yes, the ground at St Cloud was heavy, but aren't good horses supposed to go on any ground? Add to that Lough Derg's run last night, and suddenly 5/4 does not look attractive. Although my fancy, Third Realm [2] is poorly drawn, but, with only 12 runners I doubt it being an issue. I am still expecting a big run.

 

I still expect Gear Up steal a place.

 

My feeling is that this is very open despite the price of the favourite. You have to take him seriously as you do the Dante winner, but I was very taken with the Chester Vase winner. So my 3 against the field are Bolshoi Ballet, Hurricane Lane and Youth Spirit. My money is on Youth Spirit Each-Way.

 

Heart says John Leeper, head says Hurricane Lane.

of course I’ll be perfectly happy with any of the Frankel colts, or even a 1-2-3

 

I would be happy sitting on a ticket at those odds but I see he is now 13/2 second fav. Bolshoi Ballet looks the main danger. There are 5 in the race that are unbeaten as 3yos and it would be nice to see one of these give us a 3yo hope for the Arc,

 

For me the only impressive Trials winner was Bolshoi Ballet and I suppose that is why he is now clear favourite.

you can make a case for a number of the supporting cast but will any be good enough? Hurricane Lane perhaps the value call at 9/1

 

Looks like the ground going against Bolshoi Ballet. Ballydoyle may be regretting taking everything else out.