Epsom Derby, Saturday 5th June 2021

Im not backing High Definition, no way, hes an absolute boat, let him win at 9/2 all day long.

This race has broken me.

Ive already got a new horse for the race but im scared to say, i just want this ordeal to be over.

 

Final, final answer ?

 

There must be a chance that the Derby trip will be too far for High Definition and maybe the Dante was too far as well.

Madness you say? Well the colt is widely quoted at 16/1 for, wait for it, The St James' Palace Stakes!

Ffs, these bookies need John McEnroe screaming "You cannot be serious" at them 24/7.

 

29 runners left in the Derby and shock horror Wordsworth, Sir Lucan and Derab are not in the field anymore. It pisses me off to see the Racing Press waffling on about Derby "Contenders" when it is clear they don't have a cat in hell's chance. Just the other day I some saw rubbish about a 250/1 shot who could shorten for Epsom. What a load of bollocks.

Aidan has eight left in for now. Bolshoi Ballet, High Definition, Van Gogh, Sir Lamorak, Sandhurst, The Mediterranean, Kyprios, Hector De Maris

I would imagine some of these will be pacemaker options only. Sir Lamorak was due out at Chester but was pulled out because of unsuitable ground but has the option of the Gallinule on Sunday. That race just doesn't have any connection with Epsom in my memory and the colt is coming via a Handicap, which is an unlikely route to Derby glory.

Aidan probably has three with a realistic chance but Van Gogh is entered in the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James' Palace Stakes and The Eclipse, so there seems to be plenty of indication that they are covering his options in case the stamina isn't there.

The trainer has stated that he expects a fair bit of improvement from High Definition, as it was only four days before the Dante that they decided the colt was going to go to York. He added that the pace seemed to collapse in the Dante and that he felt this did not suit the horse. Bolshoi Ballet is out to 15/8 with Paddy Power and they have cut High Definition to 7/2. The latter is generally 4/1 and blue on oddschecker. It would probably all hinge on Ryan Moore being confirmed as the pilot and it would put the cat amongst the pigeons were he to be on High Definition. Despite the jockey being on the wrong one plenty of times, punters seem to flock to the horse he is on.

 

William Haggas has said that Mohaafeth could miss the Derby if the ground is soft. It would surely have to be really testing ground to take a colt out of the field when he holds such a prominent place in the betting.

More nonsense on the Racing Post website today when we were told that it was "All eyes on Cork" for the Epsom Derby. This was regarding a horse of Dermot Weld's who was 8th to Southern Lights on debut and was now running in a Maiden. Beaten 9 lengths by a horse who is 66/1 for Epsom, Tazaral is not even entered for the Derby but was apparently very much one to watch in the mile contest, as he could improve.

Who the hell is writing this nonsense? To put the tin lid on it the no-hoper is now a non-runner.

 

If its softer than good Jim Bolger could be celebrating another homebred winner

 

I am not sure Mac Swiney wants another half mile. He was surviving on fumes at the end of today's race (As was I )

I feel he is too short for Epsom with the possibility he might not get his ground and he only raced once at a mile last year in a busy enough season, so he didn;t really have a Derby horse's campaign.

 

Mr O’Brien has, of course, trained 3 of the last 4 winners of The Derby. However, the average SP of these 3 winners was almost 24/1. Plus, in these 3 races the old boy also had animals placed at 20/1 and 66/1.

These stats really do make you wonder if this time around punters will plunge, or over support, the ‘supposed’ (and that is the key word ‘supposed’) 3rd, 4th or even 5th or 6th choice from the stable. Could there be something of a ‘concertina effect’ re his runners in the market and we see, come ‘tapes up’, horses who would in the past have been 33/1 or 50/1 shots starting at less than half those odds this time around???

 

Nineteen left in the Derby now. Aidan O'Brien has left six in, Bolshoi Ballet, High Definition, Kyprios, Sir Lamorak, The Mediterranean and Van Gogh.

Charlie Appleby has three possibles, Hurricane Lane, One Ruler and Adayar. William Buick, James Doyle and Oisin Murphy respectively are booked for these colts.

As it stands all three of my ante-post bets are still in with High Definition, Southern Lights and Van Gogh, at 25/1, 66/1 and 16/1 respectively.

I am not sure Van Gogh will line up. They have kept at a mile with him and I would have expected a move to 10F on his second start had they really felt he was a Derby horse. Southern Lights ran better than his finishing position suggested last time. He was outpaced before staying on well behind Bolshoi Ballet and I honestly thought he was going to finish second before the jockey had the door shut in his face when he went for a daring run on the inner and the horse had to be snatched up, losing the momentum it had taken him so long to build. No chance of turning it around with Bolshoi Ballet, who looked the only good colt that day. It's all about High Definition for me and he should come forward a lot from the Dante.

Epsom is currently Good (Good to Firm places) and they are watering. That obviously has to be a concern for Mac Swiney, whose wins have all come on soft/heavy. The extra half mile has to be another consideration for him.

Several look short of the required standard and you could only imagine what odds they would be if we had Golden Horn lining up. As things actually are though punters have been clamouring to grab prices on horses I feel are a fair way below the calibre that would even give this Derby an average look.

Mohaafeth, John Leeper and Youth Spirit all need to step up and I don't think the Lingfield Derby trial was a strong race, with favourite Adayar looking fairly mediocre coming in. That rules Third Realm out for me, even with trainer Roger Varian apparently "Bullish" about his chance.

Plenty of connections seem confident coming into this Derby but most are going to be disappointed.

One Ruler comes here after a 6th place in the Guineas and he doesn't have a lot to find with Mac Swiney from last year's Futurity. The Bolger colt had his heavy ground that day but seems unlikely to get it this time. One Ruler has to step up in trip from a mile but then so does Mac Swiney. One Ruler is 33/1 for the Derby and Mac Swiney 7/1. Is the Bolger horse really 4 and a half times more likely to stay than One Ruler?

 

In the end I landed on Third Realm, I remember backing him on debut when he finished 5th after being well supported late in the market, he showed promise despite a poor ride by Atzeni but cant say I was thinking Derby and he completely went out of my mind for this season.

He has shown himself to be extremely versatile this season, winning a sprint finish on very quick ground first time and then winning the Lingfield trial on soft ground off a strong pace, the time was almost 6 seconds faster than the preceding fillies trial and the runner up Adayar is a bit of a soft ground monster so it was a fair performance to beat him comfortably.

He has early speed to get a position, the tactical speed to make a move when the jockey wants, and he seems to stay the 12f well, he pretty much has everything you want and most of his opponents either lack gears or have mental concerns. The only negative for me was that hes not very big but for Epsom that might not be the worst thing and he should handle the track well.

The race has caused me a lot of pain but very happy to be backing this horse at 14/1 and possibly higher on the day, I think hes a great bet and I can see him really quickening unlike most of the grinders at the top of the market, might be a question of who stays best between him and Bolshoi Ballet, nothing else really has the turn of foot to go with them bar maybe John Leeper if he conserves his energy. Id have much preferred David Egan to keep the mount but Atzeni is not enough to put me off at this price.

1. Third Realm
2. Bolshoi Ballet
3. John Leeper

 

Haven't posted for a while and, after watching the trials at Chester and York I saw nothing to suggest that there was a Derby winner lurking anywhere. As far as taking notice of what trainers have to say there are just two who attract my attention and they are John Gosden and Roger Varian, and when Varian began extolling the virtues of Third Realm I decided to have a further look at the Lingfield race and what I saw suggested that this was a horse that could win the Derby. Having allowed the horse to leave the gate smartly [he led for a few strides] Egan allowed the horse to drop back to be last of the field, where he remained until the three furlong marker, and without recourse to the whip ,Third Realm showed a turn of foot which took him from last to first - but that was not all. Having raced on the far side of the track Egan took the horse to the stand side and , although the horse was giving plenty Egan pulled his stick through and gave the horse a couple of left and right handers for, I would guess, educational purposes, after that he rode Third Realm for the last half furlong using hands and heels. allowing for the ground he forfeited moving to the stand side I reckon that the winning distance could have been six lengths. This was a masterclass in educating a horse who is tractable, has manoeuvrability and above all, tactical speed. It was in 2014 that Varian last had a Derby runner when Kingston Hill finished second to Australia - a long wait for a top trainer.

Before the Derby he has a good chance of taking the Oaks too. The one I like here is Teona who gave Atzeni a wretched ride in the Musidora - unruly at the start and slowly away she then fought for her head throughout the race forfeiting any chance she may have had. In the hope that the Musidora has removed the gassiness from her I expect a big run in the Oaks. Contrary to popular belief Varian does not have a stable jockey. Atzeni is contracted to Third Realms owner who also has hoses with Kevin Ryan and Richard Hannon. On Friday Teona will be ridden by David Egan, although Jack Mitchell is the ride who won on her. So, to sum up I have had £20 on each and a £ 20 win double - we can all dream!

 

I said a while back that the only one I was remotely interested in was Mohaafeth. Apart from the fav I haven't seen anything that I would back to beat him. I can see the thinking behind Third Realm. Somehow that one has slipped under my radar

 

The market suggests Bolshoi Ballet is a level above the rest of the field and it is hard to disagree.
Certainly the only horse that caught my eye in the trials.

the ground has gone against MacSwinney.

 

2021 DERBY PREVIEW: BOLSHOI BALLET CAN PUT ON A SHOW

please log in to view this image

By Adam Houghton — published 1st June 2021
Adam Houghton outlines the Timeform view on Saturday's Derby at Epsom, including in-depth analysis for all the key contenders.

It’s been 20 years since Galileo provided Aidan O’Brien with his first success in the Derby at Epsom, during which period both the winner and his trainer have set about leaving an indelible impression on Britain’s premier classic. After all, Galileo is now the sire of five Derby winners (and the grandsire of another), while O’Brien has become the most successful trainer in the history of the race having saddled eight winners. He is also responsible for the first two in the ante-post betting for this year’s renewal – unsurprisingly, both horses can count Galileo as their sire.









The red-hot favourite is Bolshoi Ballet, who has followed the same path to Epsom as Galileo did all those years ago. He made a successful reappearance in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in April and then improved again to follow up in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial over the same course and distance last time. That was a deeply impressive performance, quickening clear entering the final three furlongs to win by six lengths in an excellent time. He looks sure to go on improving – especially now stepping up to a mile and a half – and rates very much the one to beat.

Stablemate High Definition created an excellent impression in winning both his two-year-old starts at the Curragh, following up his debut success with an unlikely last-to-first win in the Beresford Stakes. He then shaped encouragingly when third on his belated reappearance (missed the Lingfield Derby Trial due to poor blood results) in the Dante Stakes at York, looking rusty but also ready for further as he stayed on strongly in the final two furlongs to be beaten only two lengths. He remains with potential with that in mind and it's far too soon to be writing him off.

O’Brien could saddle up to six runners, with Sir Lamorak and Van Gogh appealing as the pick of the rest. Sir Lamorak opened his account in a maiden at Dundalk in March and then made a mockery of his opening mark to follow up in a handicap at Leopardstown last time, quickening to lead entering the final furlong and forging clear. He is well worth a try in pattern company with further improvement on the cards and has a very different profile to Van Gogh, who is battle-hardened in Group 1 company. A winner at that level on his final two-year-old start, Van Gogh was only eighth on his reappearance in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but showed the benefit of that run with a good third behind Mac Swiney in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh last time, pulling clear of the rest. Van Gogh steps up markedly in trip here but promises to stay, and he has the physique to carry on progressing.

Mac Swiney developed into a smart two-year-old, his season culminating with victory in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. He had valid excuses (scoped dirty afterwards) when only fourth on his return in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial and bounced back with a career best to win the Irish 2000 Guineas last time, proving well suited by the emphasis on stamina on soft going as he found plenty to beat stablemate Poetic Flare by a short head. He should stay now tackling a mile and a half for the first time, and his prospects will improve if there is give in the ground, representing the Jim Bolger yard which won this race with Mac Swiney’s sire, New Approach, back in 2008.

The Irish challenge is completed by the Joseph O’Brien-trained Southern Lights, who won a maiden at Leopardstown in April and wasn't seen to best effect when sixth in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at the same course last time, meeting plenty of trouble in the straight before passing the post eight and a half lengths behind Bolshoi Ballet. He should have more to offer if this race pans out more favourably for him, but it’s very hard to see how he can reverse the form with the winner.

Charlie Appleby spearheads the British defence with three potentials runners, all of whom have already shown at least smart form. The highest-rated of them is Hurricane Lane, who maintained his unbeaten record with a comfortable success in the Dante Stakes last month, leading inside the final furlong and keeping going well to win by three quarters of a length from Megallan. He is improving all the time and leaves the firm impression he'll relish this longer trip, so there are certainly plenty of reasons to be positive about him as he tries to extend his winning sequence to four.

One Ruler won the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket before filling the runner-up spot in the Futurity Trophy last season. He shaped well after six months off when sixth in the 2000 Guineas last time, leaving the impression the run would bring him on. Likely to be much closer to form this time, he isn’t without claims if staying this markedly longer trip, albeit he appears to be the second string from his stable on jockey bookings. The other Appleby-trained contender is Adayar, who has filled the runner-up spot on both starts this season, in the Classic Trial at Sandown and Derby Trial at Lingfield. Further progress cannot be ruled out at some stage, but he looked a bit short of pace last time and might be vulnerable to speedier rivals again here.

Derby Trial winner Third Realm has made giant strides to win both his starts this term, getting off the mark in a maiden at Nottingham before following up with a ready victory at Lingfield. He relished the longer trip and coped well with the softer ground on the last occasion, making good headway to lead two furlongs out and keeping going well to win by a length and a quarter from Adayar. He is likely to go on improving and has good claims of hitting the frame for Roger Varian, who saddled Kingston Hill to finish second in the Derby in 2014.

William Haggas went one place better than that with Shaamit back in 1996, and he is set to field another leading contender this time in the shape of Mohaafeth. Mohaafeth could hardly have been more impressive when completing a hat-trick in a listed race at Newmarket last time, leading on the bridle over two furlongs out and quickly forging clear to win by five lengths from Secret Protector. That performance was more about style than substance, but he is unlikely to have a problem staying a mile and a half and remains a colt of huge potential.

Named after John Dunlop, who won the Derby twice during his training career with Shirley Heights (1978) and Erhaab (1994), John Leeper is another unknown quantity in the line-up after only three starts. He is bred in the purple (by Frankel out of the Oaks winner Snow Fairy) and has started to live up to his pedigree by winning both outings this season, in a minor event at Newcastle and listed race at Newmarket. He did plenty wrong on the last occasion (raced freely) but still managed to win, responding well to land the spoils by a length and three quarters from Tasman Bay. He should have more to offer over a mile and a half in time, but there's a chance that this race might come too soon in his development.

Youth Spirit stepped up on his reappearance with a career best to land the Chester Vase last time, relishing the extra emphasis on stamina on soft going as he stayed on well to win by a length and three quarters from Sandhurst. He remains with potential and has certainly earned his place in the line-up, albeit others possess stronger form credentials. Similar comments apply to Lone Eagle, who was a three-time winner as a two-year-old, including the Zetland Stakes at Newmarket. He showed the benefit of his return when putting up a career best to regain the winning thread in a listed race at Goodwood last time, making all to beat Yibir by four lengths. He will be suited by a mile and a half and merits consideration for place purposes, particularly if the going comes up soft.

The last contender of note is Gear Up, who won three of his four starts at two, including the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. He shaped as if needing the run after seven months off when fifth in the Dante Stakes last time, keeping on late after being outpaced briefly entering the final furlong. He will be suited by the step up in trip here and has the potential to outrun his odds.

Conclusion:

Bolshoi Ballet holds obvious claims given that he sets the standard on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings and should have even more to offer now stepping up to a mile and a half. He has looked a really exciting prospect when winning both starts at Leopardstown this spring and is fancied to emulate his sire Galileo by following up with victory at Epsom. Mohaafeth is very progressive and can emerge as the chief threat if building on the promise of his bloodless success at Newmarket last time, leaving Mac Swiney and Hurricane Lane to complete the shortlist.

 

I wonder if a few connections will be awaiting tomorrow's draw with apprehension?!? The stat still remains that no horse this century has won The Derby when emerging from the lowest 2 stalls - and that includes the odds-on, Saxon Warrior, back in '18.

 

Meh. This century? 21 runnings isn’t much of a sample size

 

Are you sure?!? 21 is a fair enough number, in my book, to draw some sort of conclusion. Most trends / analysis, that are produced, when dealing with stats usually just rely on 10 runnings of a race.

Doubt if it will influence many when striking a bet or change the mind of those who have, pre-existing, strong opinions in the race but certainly something to reflect upon when looking at the make-up of the final field.

 

Do you think it will have a significant impact on the market?

I suppose it may, though not in the same way as obvious or even just perceived draw biases in big field handicaps do.

 

No. But for me is something to bear in mind. Would I be concerned if I had strong opinions on 'The Derby' (which, incidentally, I don't have this year) and tomorrow my pick drew box 1 or 2??? Yes, I would be.

 

All that from the Timeform guy, only to tip the **** hot favourite. Not exactly Nostradamus stuff there.

Reminds me of the Old Moore's Almanac, where the predictions for June would include "The Epsom Derby may be won by the Favourite, or, the 2nd Favourite"

Maybe, as Septic Peg would have said, "I predict that this year's winning jockey will have skin"

I doesn't look good for High Definition, way out to 7/1 now, despite Aidan stating that the likely stronger pace of a Derby should suit the colt. He elaborated that Ryan Moore had been instructed not to push the horse in the early stages of the Dante and instead he was to let the horse find his feet in his own time and then "See what happens"

We all "Saw what happened" and if they repeat those tactics it is highly likely the colt will have to try to do a Dancing Brave, only lacking the great horse's turn of foot that couldn't quite save Greville Starkey's blushes.