Epsom Derby, Saturday 5th June 2021

Van Gogh is out of the Dante. O'Brien has declared High Definition and Roman Empire, who I assume is going to be the pacemaker. The story was that High Definition would have blood tests before being declared and that he would have more tests before being committed on the day of the race.

I can't say I have seen so much cotton wool round a horse and wonder if he will have have a lateral flow test just before he goes into the stalls.

Money for High Definition in the Derby on the back of the declarations for York but I feel he has plenty to prove.

 

Nice to have a reasonable looking ticket going forward.

 

After a messy Musidora that told us very little, what we did not need was a messy Dante but we got one.

I wonder what the instruction was to Hollie Doyle on Roman Empire. She lit the horse up and he did his best scalded cat impression, fading in the final furlong. If the plan was to make sure they did not dawdle so that High Definition could pick them up from off the pace then that backfired. Doubtless O’Blarney will say that he will come on for the race.

As it turned out the horses that fought out the finish were in the pack and nothing showed an explosive turn of foot to win convincingly. The favourite did not exhibit the powerful finish of his two juvenile starts, just staying on at the finish to be a never threatening third. Megallan and Hurricane Lane duelled out the finish and John Gosden has already stated that the runner-up will be going to Chantilly. With the other Godolphin possibles having disappointed in the last ten days or so, unbeaten Hurricane Lane must now be their number one for Epsom. Gear Up surely ran his first St Leger trial as he was never in a position to challenge and did not even overhaul Roman Empire in the end. They need to come up with a new theorem for Pythagoras.

Good luck to those with nice prices about Hurricane Lane. He is sure to give a good account and the trip does not look a problem. My concern would be the usual one: the track. He looks like quite a big horse and Epsom usually better suits a compact well-balanced type because of the undulations and the camber.

Appleby says that his Guineas horse One Ruler will go straight to Epsom so I can see Godolphin only having the two. The one to beat is going to be Bolshoi Ballet as he is the only one that has impressed in winning a trial so he deserves to be favourite. Other than High Definition it will be interesting to see how many Ballydoyle run.

 

High Definitions 115 rating was bordering on fraud and he showed he still takes an eternity to change gear but that was a decent run, he wont be out of the 3 at Epsom but looks a Leger/Gold Cup type and hard to see him living with Bolshoi Ballets speed if the ground is decent.

 

Looks like Timeform have given High Definition 115 as well although, given his appearance, I would have thought "p" was justified. he doesn't look the type for Epsom but I would have thought, come October, he will have come on a lot. He is currently 33/1 but if he wins the Irish Derby he will be more like 10/1

 

I thought that was a decent effort from High Definition. It is not the horse's fault that he was a ridiculous ante post price for the Derby. Given his run today in the circumstances I would expect him to come forward and I feel he will reverse placings with Hurricane Lane, who needed to stay on strongly himself today.

Perhaps both Colts will be St Leger types but it is hardly a stellar quality renewal of the Classic. I backed High Definition at 20/1 for the Leger in case he lacked the pace for Epsom and he is now generally 5/1 for that Classic, having been available at 20/1 for ages after I backed him.

I reckon that whichever of Aidan's does best in the Derby will swerve the Leger and the other will probably go there. I doubt both will run in the least sexy Classic but I am hoping that one can do the business from High Definition at 20/1 and Bolshoi Ballet at 12/1.

Likely I will end up with nothing in the end but you can only try your best to get a bit of value and a lower cost investment.

Not ruling High Definition out at Epsom but he will have to stay closer to the pace in the hope that he can wear them down.

 

WORDSWORTH runs tomorrow in the Yeats at Navan which is a listed 1m 5f race. Traditionally the Ballydoyle team run their "Cup" horses in this race so unless we see a scintillating performance from him tomorrow I think I can safely shred that particular Derby betslip.
The tissue doesnt even have him as the more fancied of the two yard runners in the race tomorrow but I would be mightily confident about him winning this race but probably in more workmanlike style than would be ideal.

 

Sounds like AOB didn’t read the script.

 

Very funny. Maybe the horse will be poetry in motion tomorrow.

 

The tissue price was way off the mark. William Hill have opened Wordsworth 4/6 and Sir Lucan 4/1.

Sir Lucan has the higher rating on best RPR of 102 and he has an official rating of 104 but that OR looks bollocks after a run rated 73 by the Racing Post for finishing nearly 18 lengths in arrears when 8th in the Classic Trial at Sandown.

I am actually going to oppose both with Party House, who is 1 from 1 for Ger Lyons and she gets 5 lbs from the colts. She was green on her debut but finished with a good rattle and won cosily in the end. She looks sure to improve and it looked last time that she was ready for 12F, so it is hoped she can get the trip tomorrow.

I thought Wordsworth would be more of a Leger type as a full brother to Kew Gardens and he would need to look special, as you say, to be considered for Epsom.

 

Derby credentials probably blown but in the horses defence it looked to my eye to be carrying plenty of condition today. He also had to do the donkey out front and I think that’s because he probably lacks gears. I think he is better than what he showed today and it will be interesting to see what his targets are after today but pretty certain that he won’t line up at Epsom.

 

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How can this be? a horse is only as good as its last RPR, it doesnt matter if it was on obvious throw out run when nearly everything from the stable was running down the field.

 

That was impressive from John Leeper, ran like a lot of these fillies with the choke out early and still managed to win, he was value for far more than the margin of victory, looks to have a gear change and stamina, he also has a Derby level pedigree by Frankel out of Snow Fairy, and he looks a serious prospect.

My horse Van Gogh looks a non runner, the value is long gone on Bolshoi Ballet and nothing impressed me in the other trials so I think John Leeper will be my Derby bet now.

 

My dad always spoke highly of him as a trainer, was at the end of his career when I got into racing although I do remember getting a good turn off his Elusive Pimpernel in the Acomb. Seems to a be good story with the owner as well and its a fairytale pedigree. The race maybe too soon for him but you never know, and in terms of prospects and pedigrees, hes the one id want long term if I had the pick of them before the race, assuming Van Gogh is out.

 

Do you see him as an Arc prospect Joe?

 

Havent really thought about the Arc yet Ron, it will take a bit more winning than either of the Epsom classics the way they are shaping up. If he did go and win the Derby then we could be looking at another Golden Horn type, there hasnt really been a top class 10-12f colt since him. John Leeper has the looks and pedigree but he has a lot to prove to get close to that Derby/Arc winning category. Golden Horn looked a goodthing going into the Derby after his Dante performance, John Leeper will be 3rd or 4th choice.

I guess if you were to back John Leeper for the Arc you would know your fate pretty early, either he wins the Derby impressively or you rip up your virtual ticket.

 

That was surely game over for Wordsworth. That looked an egg and spoon race for plodders and I thought the filly might have beaten the pair of them if she hadn't swerved right across and lost her momentum. I highly doubt either Wordsworth or Sir Lucan will even run in the race, yet they stand 25/1 and 20/1 in places. Sweet Jesus, how many do they think Aidan is going to run just to get in the way of his first two in the betting.

There is more chance of Lord Lucan showing up at Epsom.

 

Had second thoughts already about John Leeper, starting to think it might be too soon for him, hes clearly a good horse but there are horses in this race who might be too streetwise for him on the day, and the not settling thing is annoying me, as it it is with Teona, when I think of classic winners I dont remember many of them running so waywardly in their trials.

I made a snap judgement on Hurricane Lane after Maximal was beaten in what looked a pretty run of the mill Dee Stakes, I just assumed the form wouldnt be good enough to win a Derby. But after having a proper look at Hurricane Lane, he just does everything right and he always has something left at the finish which you need in the Derby. He might just be one of those horses who isnt flashy and just does enough. 3 runs, 3 wins including the Dante, hes obviously progressing well and as far as the trials go, that was the best one in England.

Maybe its wrong to assume High Definition will reverse the form, both horses look to be crying out for further, but Hurricane Lane has tactical speed while High Definition takes longer than Big Bucks to get going. If the race isnt a war of attrition youve got to think Hurricane Lane will be better placed to strike.

Gosden seems to rate Megallan as a French Derby horse and I think this is a pretty telling quote.

Gosden, who has won the Dante three times since 2015, believes this year's race was well up to scratch, and added: "I've always liked the winner. William told me on the plane back from Chester that they thought a lot of him. I think the two best trials were the Derrinstown and the Dante."

Looking at the Dante, the 2nd and 3rd were well held up, the other horses up with the pace all collapsed to varying extents, except the winner who managed to put in a faster final furlong than High Definition despite that one having the slightly faster final 3f. It was the same story at Newbury, Hurricane Lane had the fastest final furlong despite Maximal having the faster final 3f. This is where his tactical speed comes into play, he gets himself into a good position and keeps plenty for the finish.

I think if Buick had the choice of John Leeper and Hurricane Lane, he would pick Hurricane Lane, so think I might be joining stick on this one now, wonder who I will like for the race tomorrow.

 

Nah, I was right, the form isnt good enough is it? Beating Maximal 1L and Megallan 1/2L, that cant be Derby winning form. It wasnt an Authorized, Motivator, or Golden Horn Dante performance. If it wasnt such a bad looking Derby I dont think id have even entertained it. But in a year when a horse called Mohaafeth has been 2nd fav for months and Poetic Flare is winning a Guineas what can you do.

Bolshoi Ballet im 100% taking on based purely on price, also think Leopardstown is regularly a conveyor belt track and sitting 2nd all the way round behind a pacemaker, he may have been a touch flattered, also didnt beat any top horses. The Dante was a much better race, but Bolshoi Ballet did win half the track.

Ballydoyle and Galileo own the race, you have to look at how all their horses have been coming on an absolute ton for the run, and when you consider that and the poor preparation, you have to fancy High Definition to reverse the Dante form. I said it was odds on the main danger would come from the same stable and I think in all likelihood its him, if ever a horse has been crying out for the trip. Moore might actually have a decision to make, and if he makes the wrong one, im sure we will get Dettori on High Definition, either way you are guaranteed a top jockey.

Im taking the plunge, 9/2 High Definition. Final answer. It doesnt matter what route the bus takes as long as you get off at the right stop.

Dont miss my latest fancy in tomorrows edition.