Epsom Derby Outsider
- Thread starter Ron
- Start date
-
Please bear with us on the new site integration and fixing any known bugs over the coming days. If you can not log in please try resetting your password and check your spam box. If you have tried these steps and are still struggling email [email protected] with your username/registered email address
-
What would you make of this.
Main Sequence won a Derby trial at Lingfield (AW) in TIME 2m 28.83s (fast by 0.27s) carrying 8.12. This was 2 secs faster than the fillies' equivalent in the preceding race.
In the 10f race later Retrieve won in TIME 2m 3.17s (slow by 0.77s) carrying the same weight. Had they competed in WFA Main Sequence would ha been receiving about 16lbs. So he effectively gave Retrieve 16lbs and a 1 second beating. It's complicated by the fact that Retrieve won comfortably but Cai Shen (fav) was 5l behind in 3rd.
Can anyone work out what rating could be allocated to Main Sequence on this evidence and whether or not this rates as an ew shot in the Epsom Derby?
His 2yo form certainly isn't off putting, based on relative times and manner of victory.
Main Sequence won a Derby trial at Lingfield (AW) in TIME 2m 28.83s (fast by 0.27s) carrying 8.12. This was 2 secs faster than the fillies' equivalent in the preceding race.
In the 10f race later Retrieve won in TIME 2m 3.17s (slow by 0.77s) carrying the same weight. Had they competed in WFA Main Sequence would ha been receiving about 16lbs. So he effectively gave Retrieve 16lbs and a 1 second beating. It's complicated by the fact that Retrieve won comfortably but Cai Shen (fav) was 5l behind in 3rd.
Can anyone work out what rating could be allocated to Main Sequence on this evidence and whether or not this rates as an ew shot in the Epsom Derby?
His 2yo form certainly isn't off putting, based on relative times and manner of victory.
My colleague backed MAIN SEQUENCE on his debut - she was at Yarmouth that day and said he was the absolute pick of the paddock (he won BTO!). His price (50/1) did not put her off.
The report from his jockey in yesterday's paper was full of confidence too.
I'm tempted to have a little on PARISH HALL in the Derby before the weekend. Jim Bolger is no fool.
The report from his jockey in yesterday's paper was full of confidence too.
I'm tempted to have a little on PARISH HALL in the Derby before the weekend. Jim Bolger is no fool.
I also like Parish Hall. He was my pick for the 2000Gns but with his pedigree one would think 12f would be even better. 16s still available. Just realised Main Sequence is down to 14/1 (10s with Lad!).
Derby odds
Derby odds
If someone held a gun to my head, although I’m sure that no-one would ever want to do that, then I’d say Camelot will win. But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again the best outsider in the heat is undoubtedly, in my opinion, Mr Candy’s Rugged Cross (look to the left and you can see his picture – Rugged Cross that is not Mr Candy).
I thought his return to action, at Newmarket last Saturday, was most encouraging and I really liked the way that he battled in this Listed race, showed good speed throughout the contest and significantly should improve markedly for both the run and the step up to 12 furlongs. Furthermore, Mr Candy isn’t one to call his geese swans or waste owners money, on entry fees, unnecessarily. Currently 50/1, I think Rugged Cross has the potential to out run this price and reach the frame. Certainly I would recommend an each-way wager re him, people.
Another one of note is the one who was victorious in that Newmarket race – Thought Worthy. A half-brother to the Derby 4th and Leger winner, Lucarno, he is crying out for 12 furlongs and was another that scored a ‘Chuckle positive’ at the weekend. Should old boy Gosden run him in the Derby rather than the ‘King Edward VII Stakes’, at Royal Ascot, then he is another who is far too big a price at the moment in what to be frank is a one horse market.
I thought his return to action, at Newmarket last Saturday, was most encouraging and I really liked the way that he battled in this Listed race, showed good speed throughout the contest and significantly should improve markedly for both the run and the step up to 12 furlongs. Furthermore, Mr Candy isn’t one to call his geese swans or waste owners money, on entry fees, unnecessarily. Currently 50/1, I think Rugged Cross has the potential to out run this price and reach the frame. Certainly I would recommend an each-way wager re him, people.
Another one of note is the one who was victorious in that Newmarket race – Thought Worthy. A half-brother to the Derby 4th and Leger winner, Lucarno, he is crying out for 12 furlongs and was another that scored a ‘Chuckle positive’ at the weekend. Should old boy Gosden run him in the Derby rather than the ‘King Edward VII Stakes’, at Royal Ascot, then he is another who is far too big a price at the moment in what to be frank is a one horse market.
SBC Thought Worthy wouldn't get near Noble Mission off level weights over 1m4f never mind Camelot old boy. Mr Cecils horse was conceding 5lbs to the rogue you like last time and only just went down after being outpaced earlier on.
As we seen in the 1000 guineas, when AOB has a strong favourite in a race, his other horses can be overlooked. There is also a history of big priced AOB horses proving superior to more fancied stablemates at Epsom. Treasure Beach last year, wasn't as well fancied as Seville and Recital, At First Sight the year before that wasn't as fancied as Jan Vermeer and Midas Touch. Dylan Thomas went off at 25/1 when he was 3rd in the Derby, as Horatio Nelson and Septimus were more fancied. Just a few examples of it, and there are alot more over the years.
You also mustn't forget that AOBs horses do have a big advantage at Epsom, seeing as they have there own replica of Tattenham corner to train on.*
So on that basis il tip up Father Of Science at 50/1 for the Derby. Granted he will have to improve bundles, on his maiden win at Chester, but that was only his 2nd start, so he's still very progressive, and being a son of Galileo he is very well bred
*
You also mustn't forget that AOBs horses do have a big advantage at Epsom, seeing as they have there own replica of Tattenham corner to train on.*
So on that basis il tip up Father Of Science at 50/1 for the Derby. Granted he will have to improve bundles, on his maiden win at Chester, but that was only his 2nd start, so he's still very progressive, and being a son of Galileo he is very well bred
*Have to agree with whats been said - Kesampour at the odds would be worth an EW punt, but really I can't see anything to touch Camelot.
If you like Parish Hall, to be honest I'd wait till after the weekend - possible scenarios:
a) he runs like he needs the run at the weekend, doesn't win, you still fancy him and his odds are better.
b) he runs terribly, puts you off and you would've wasted the bet if you backed him earlier.
c) he wins and is an even better shout for the Derby - odds will be worse, but you know more.
For me the probability of (a) given it's his first outing this season makes it worth waiting.
If you like Parish Hall, to be honest I'd wait till after the weekend - possible scenarios:
a) he runs like he needs the run at the weekend, doesn't win, you still fancy him and his odds are better.
b) he runs terribly, puts you off and you would've wasted the bet if you backed him earlier.
c) he wins and is an even better shout for the Derby - odds will be worse, but you know more.
For me the probability of (a) given it's his first outing this season makes it worth waiting.
If Camelot doesn't win then I think Astrology could be the one. Have to say I cannot disagree with Zen though - everything suggests Camelot will improve for this trip. I can see why he's 4/5 and whilst I think that price is fair I won't be playing because it only takes one and all of these are still unexposed.